Series Thread: Yankees at Blue Jays - Sept.27,28,29

SharoneWright · Post #1 » by **SharoneWright** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:20 pm

Alright. I'm not scared of the Yanks.

v.

I also found out that Alyssa has been cheating. Let's play a series to settle it!

Mon, Sep 27 7:07 PM Rzepczynski (2-4) Burnett (10-14)
Tue, Sep 28 7:07 PM Drabek (0-2) Sabathia (20-7)
Wed, Sep 29 7:07 PM Cecil (14-7) Pettitte (11-3)

Post #2 » by **LittleOzzy** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:24 pm

Cito Tribute event on Wednesday!

Get some seats!

https://tickets.audienceview.com/blueja ... _092910-A1

Post #3 » by **craig01** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:29 pm

The Rays could sure use a little bit of help from the Jays.

Go Jays!

Avenger · Post #4 » by **Avenger** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:04 am

haha, Bumnett, this is awesome

MGD24 · Post #5 » by **MGD24** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:12 am

AJ pitched very well for the Jays tonight!

SharoneWright · Post #6 » by **SharoneWright** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:12 am

Cy Zep!

SmoothTofu · Post #7 » by **SmoothTofu** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:16 am

Rzep is beasting right now.

Post #8 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:49 am

Excellent.

Post #9 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:14 am

YAY, TALLET!

Way to screw up a routine play, then give up a 3-run homer to put them back in the game!

Post #10 » by **Geddy** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:14 am

thanks Tallet.

hyper316 · Post #11 » by **hyper316** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:24 am

man, plz get rid of tallet. we have plenty of arms for next year to lose this guy

Post #12 » by **Geddy** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:28 am

Nice try Vern, but next time hold up at second

Post #13 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:39 am

Vern gets props for the hustle effort, though. And the dinger earlier in the game...

hyper316 · Post #14 » by **hyper316** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:56 am

win! + .500 season, baby!

Post #15 » by **Geddy** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:57 am

Nice win and good start to the series. Hopefully Drabek can dominate tomorrow.

Michael Bradley · Post #16 » by **Michael Bradley** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:25 pm

Does Vernon's 2010 season qualify as the quietest 30-HR season in Jays history? No one is even talking about him and he's having probably the 3rd best season of his career offensively with improved defense (from last year). I guess that is what happens when Bautista is on another planet offensively.

Post #17 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:56 pm

Do we care, though?

We're talking about a player approaching what we consider to be the minimum level of accepted performance necessary for us not to complain about his mammoth contract. Should he really be getting an atta-boy for finally not sucking? I get that he's been injured on and off in various seasons, but should we really be commending him for this, as opposed to just quietly accepting that he's not DRAMATICALLY underperforming his contract value?

He's 31, this isn't a level of production he's going to sustain for a while; if there's excitement, it should be that we may potentially be able to MOVE him. He's a 3.2 WAR player this year... 4.3 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR. He's still below-average in RF/g, RF/9, etc, etc. He was a -1.2 dWAR player last year, not a huge difference. Still a -4.6 UZR player this year (-6.3 UZR/150), still -6.1 in RngR (so like six runs below average in range factor).

I mean, are we supposed to be thrilled with this because he's the only guy besides Bautista posting .800 or better in OPS (.851 at the moment)? His 2006 season was similar, and he was on pace for a similar season in 2008 before injuries got him. His 2003 season was a little better than that offensively, and he's enjoying some pretty good luck on his HR/FB% this season.

Call me a heartless bastard if you will, but I'm completely indifferent to Wells' performance this year. It's what you'd expect from a healthy Vernon who's getting a little lucky when he puts the ball in the year (his HR/FB% is something like nearly double the league average at the moment).

He gets a big, resounding "Meh" from me. It's nice, and it's been fun to watch, but he should still be Not-Here.

Michael Bradley · Post #18 » by **Michael Bradley** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:44 pm

Wells is never going to be worth his contract. The Jays signed him when the market was insanely high. Nothing outside of him turning into Pujols offensively is going to justify that contract.

However, he is still having a good season: 128 OPS+, 31 HR, 3.2 WAR. Sure he is not a legit CF at this stage of his career (injuries + age), but that is where he will be playing for the forseeable future.

My point was, if I didn't look it up, I never would have thought Wells had 30 home runs. I just never really paid attention to his numbers. Bautista is getting most of the attention, justifiably so, but Wells has had a very quietly strong power season.

Hoopstarr · Post #19 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 7:50 pm

tsherkin wrote:Do we care, though?

We're talking about a player approaching what we consider to be the minimum level of accepted performance necessary for us not to complain about his mammoth contract. Should he really be getting an atta-boy for finally not sucking? I get that he's been injured on and off in various seasons, but should we really be commending him for this, as opposed to just quietly accepting that he's not DRAMATICALLY underperforming his contract value?

He's 31, this isn't a level of production he's going to sustain for a while; if there's excitement, it should be that we may potentially be able to MOVE him. He's a 3.2 WAR player this year... 4.3 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR. He's still below-average in RF/g, RF/9, etc, etc. He was a -1.2 dWAR player last year, not a huge difference. Still a -4.6 UZR player this year (-6.3 UZR/150), still -6.1 in RngR (so like six runs below average in range factor).

I mean, are we supposed to be thrilled with this because he's the only guy besides Bautista posting .800 or better in OPS (.851 at the moment)? His 2006 season was similar, and he was on pace for a similar season in 2008 before injuries got him. His 2003 season was a little better than that offensively, and he's enjoying some pretty good luck on his HR/FB% this season.

Call me a heartless bastard if you will, but I'm completely indifferent to Wells' performance this year. It's what you'd expect from a healthy Vernon who's getting a little lucky when he puts the ball in the year (his HR/FB% is something like nearly double the league average at the moment).

He gets a big, resounding "Meh" from me. It's nice, and it's been fun to watch, but he should still be Not-Here.

Well I, for one, am thrilled. Yes, it's what he's supposed to do, but last year it was looking like he'd never put up a season like this ever again and the contract would be a complete sunk cost from here out. Now it looks like he might actually end up earning half the contract...

2008 - 1.5 WAR - $6.6m dollar value
2009 - 0.0 - $200k
2010 - 4.0 - $16.2m

That's the first 3 years of the $126m deal. He has earned $23m of it. He has 4 years and 98m left. Let's say he averages 2.5 WAR over that time and the wins to dollars conversion stays constant, he'll earn $40m more (2.5 x $4m/win x 4 yrs) so that's around 63 of the 126. Still awful but not the total loss we were expecting. Of course, real value is more nuanced than just WAR to dollars. He'll be taking up an OF spot for at least 4 more years on a rebuilding team. He'll also be taking up a quarter of the team's payroll every year too.

Re: HR/FB, it might be above league average, but it's right around where it is for him when he's healthy. His other rates are also consistent with past years. If anything, his BABIP is down so he's been unlucky with average.

Randle McMurphy · Post #20 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Sep 28, 2010 8:01 pm

As I've told you before, tsherkin, Vernon Wells will never live up to that contract and holding him to that kind of standard every season is just looking for a reason to bash him.

Wells had a fine year...if he does this for a few more years (and he's certainly capable of that), the contract won't turn out to be quite the albatross.