RealGM

I have only started visiting this Board over this past season, and missed out on the Morrow discussion that would have taken place with this trade last year. I thought I would bring it up again and see the opinions of of the minor league experts who post on this forum frequently, or any other posters opinions near the 1 year mark of the trade.

I had personally thought as this season progressed that we got a steal in the trade last year but that was when I thought League was the centerpiece going the other way, now I am not so sure. Johermyn Chavez went to the Mariners in the trade last year and posted a .315BA/.387OBP/32Hr/98RBI with the Mariners A+ affiliate. He is also said to have a strong outfield arm. League, who is not as major a focus in this thread was 3.42ERA/1.19WHIP/79IP/56K/6S/6BS.

I am curious if any posters have some opinions on specifically Chavez, and whether he seems likely to repeat these numbers in the coming years, and potentially in the MLB down the road as well. I realize that if Morrow becomes our Ace (and becomes a legitimate one as opposed to the guy who is slotted in at number one just because) then Chavez could put up some seriously impressive numbers in the MLB and it wouldn't matter, we would win the trade because pitching trumps (thank you very much says the champion Giants , and you are correct cries Ryan Howard ).

I wonder what future outcome would tip the scales in the Mariners favor, and is it likely?
i.e If Morrow tops out as a 12-10 type guy with 4.0ERA and 180 strikeouts while Chavez is a .300 hitter with 30+ HR and 100+RBI, I would start to think the Mariners won the trade. Those numbers are totally made up and in no way statistically backed projections, but based on these guys potential which I am not fully aware of...what does everyone think?

A bird in the hand is worth two (dozen) in the bush. What Morrow has already provided to the Blue Jays is more valuable than what 99.9% of a-ball players will ever achieve, and he's going to keep that rolling on through 2011 hopefully. Brandon League, as a decent middle reliever, is worth a half filled sack of coal. It's possible Johermyn turns into an MLB regular, but guys like him can be had cheap. The Mariners got hosed. Given the chance, they would take that trade back in a millisecond.

It was an absolute steal for the Jays.

Chavez looks like a good prospect. But playing in the high desert league (where the thin air + heat really lets you drive the ball), inflated his numbers. He will have a very difficult time posting those kind of numbers in AA next year, let alone the majors.

G-Mac wrote:I wonder what future outcome would tip the scales in the Mariners favor, and is it likely?
i.e If Morrow tops out as a 12-10 type guy with 4.0ERA and 180 strikeouts while Chavez is a .300 hitter with 30+ HR and 100+RBI, I would start to think the Mariners won the trade. Those numbers are totally made up and in no way statistically backed projections, but based on these guys potential which I am not fully aware of...what does everyone think?

I'd think that those numbers would be the worst case scenario for Morrow and the absolute best case for Chavez. And what are the chances of that. Morrow has shown ace potential in the toughest division in the baseball world.

He put up solid numbers but im going to need to see at least 2 consistent seasons of similar play to start to take notice, especially for a corner OF.

I actually was against the Morrow trade when it first happened..... not because of League, but because of what I was readying about Chavez. He was considered a pretty good prospect back then too. Plus Morrow looked like a near bust at the time.

I hated the deal............... but Morrow proved me wrong

I rather have a "potential" Ace.... than a "potential" star hitter.... just cause they r easier to come by

a true Ace, is rare.... and Morrow has the chance of reaching that milestone

at the time a lot of people thought Morrow couldn't be a starter long-term, so people thought it could have been just swapping fireballer relievers except us giving up an additional prospect.

Brandon League is not the kind of reliever you ever think twice about, for references sake he put up a 0.6WAR vs 3.6 for Brandon Morrow in 2010, Johermyn Chavez might have to be an all star right fielder for Seattle to win this trade. While Chavez's stats look great, he does play in the most hitter friendly ballpark and in a league that is also incredibly hitter friendly. While Chavez does apparently have a strong arm, his defence has never been lauded and minor league fielding stats suggest he's downright horrendous(-45 runs in 4 seasons according to Total Zone fielding runs above average). That stat isn't perfect and it has its flaws but it seems ok looking at other players' numbers. For Seattle to come out on top i'd say Chavez has to really hit well, i don't see his defence being an asset he'd have to put up atleast 290/360/480 or something in that range.

DonYon wrote:at the time a lot of people thought Morrow couldn't be a starter long-term, so people thought it could have been just swapping fireballer relievers except us giving up an additional prospect.

i remember this board during his first start of the season in Texas -- most people here were roasting him after his first couple runs allowed - nature of the beast i suppose...