Blue Jays and Bautista 3 million apart

[Avenger]

Shi Davidi: Jays and Bautista nearly $3m apart: Club: $7.6 million, Player: $10.5 million

not a good move on Bautista's part, no way any sane arbitration panel sides with him but then again the panel is composed of non-baseball people who might fall in love with the 54 homeruns

[MGD24]

Shi Davidi: Jays and Bautista nearly $3m apart: Club: $7.6 million, Player: $10.5 million

not a good move on Bautista's part, no way any sane arbitration panel sides with him but then again the panel is composed of non-baseball people who might fall in love with the 54 homeruns

I could see him getting it. I mean 7.6 is fair too...maybe he just thought, why not try for 10.

He may never hit 54 HRs again, so try and cash in now.

[WpgPage]

given past history I cant see them picking 10.5, AA said he would consider doing multi-year extensions after his self imposed deadline. So I could see them signing him to a 2-3 year deal but im fine with going to arb with him. As for Frasor im sure he will go to arb and probably get the 3.75

[Avenger]

Shi Davidi: Jays and Bautista nearly $3m apart: Club: $7.6 million, Player: $10.5 million

not a good move on Bautista's part, no way any sane arbitration panel sides with him but then again the panel is composed of non-baseball people who might fall in love with the 54 homeruns

I could see him getting it. I mean 7.6 is fair too...maybe he just thought, why not try for 10.

He may never hit 54 HRs again, so try and cash in now.

The thing is the panel is only allowed to pick one side and they can't split the difference, Jose might have thrown away a million or two with a demand like this.

[MGD24]

Shi Davidi: Jays and Bautista nearly $3m apart: Club: $7.6 million, Player: $10.5 million

not a good move on Bautista's part, no way any sane arbitration panel sides with him but then again the panel is composed of non-baseball people who might fall in love with the 54 homeruns

I could see him getting it. I mean 7.6 is fair too...maybe he just thought, why not try for 10.

He may never hit 54 HRs again, so try and cash in now.

The thing is the panel is only allowed to pick one side and they can't split the difference, Jose might have thrown away a million or two with a demand like this.

good point! never thought about it like that. Maybe if he tried for just 8.5 he would have got it.

[Homer Jay]

I always thought Aribtration panels should be forced go back and look over the previous three years at the minimum. That way you smooth out one year blips like Bautista's 54 HR last year. Right now it looks like it is entirely at their discretion whether to consider one year or an entire career, so a decision costing millions is based on what that individual panel wants rather than consistency across all panels that off-season.

[Michael Bradley]

Given Bautista's pre-2010 numbers, I'd guess the Jays will likely win this one, but who knows. If Bautista had a better career prior to 2010 I'd say it could go either way, but we are talking about a .750 OPS player prior to 2010.

I guess we can put an end to any talk of the Jays possibly signing Bautista long-term. He wants to cash in.

[dagger]

http://www.suite101.com/content/how-bas ... rks-a45599

Here's a good primer on arbitration. Personally, I think it's a tossup. And the small gap involving Frasor, as some fans noted, suggests an element of bitterness between the parties.

Here are the criteria either side can address.

(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;

The performance part is a slam dunk for Bautista short term, an uphill climb going back three years. But his 2010 was pretty significant, not just the homers but the RBIs, walks, assists in the outfield. And he is recognized as a locker room plus, especially with the Latin players. His unrivalled flexibility - able to play five of the eight positions, is another argument in his favor.

This is going to be a contentious point because the team's lawyer has to knock down the significance of a season for the ages.

(2) the club’s record and its attendance;

Bautista can argue that the Jays surprisingly good showing record wise was a bit of his doing, but he can't argue he spurred attendance. Then again, if I was his agent, I'd pull out the tape of those TV commercials the Jays made featuring Jose in part. They certainly used him to try to boost the gate.

(3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;

Well, no post-season but he certainly can boast of some special achievements. I'd say he does well with this argument.

(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.

This is a tougher nut for Jose since he isn't really comparable to anyone in his service-time. His singular achievements, happening with little warning based on earlier seasons, really make it hard for him to compare against anyone.

The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.

Not much here for either side. My hunch is Jose might win. The deal is for one year, non-guaranteed, so the arbitrator doesn't have to worry about saddling the team with a bad contract if Jose bombs.

If I was betting, I'd say the Jays end up negotiating a three year deal with Jose just before the hearing.






Read more at Suite101: How Baseball Arbitration Works: MLB Rules Governing the Eligibility and Process of Arbitration http://www.suite101.com/content/how-bas ... z1BQx15ya4

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Doesn't seem far off. They'll settle around $8-8.5, which is what the masses thought anyway.

[DonYon]

might as well give him a 3-4 year extension around 12-15 million. Unless he somehow only manages 15-20 homeruns in 500 ABs next year, he just might get 17+M over 5+ years on the open market.

[Skin Blues]

The arbitration system needs an overhaul. The point should be to give the players market value. And we all know that arbitration only ever gives the player about 50% of market value.

[Hoopstarr]

I think the Jays should've offered an even 8m to lock it up. I'm afraid the arbitrators (arbiters?) might think he's worth at least 8m even if it's from one season and round up to 10.5m.

[SharoneWright]

I think the Jays should've offered an even 8m to lock it up. I'm afraid the arbitrators (arbiters?) might think he's worth at least 8m even if it's from one season and round up to 10.5m.

Its possible both sides had negotiated into that middle ground, but each might retrench a bit going into arbitration in the hopes of hitting a 'homerun'. I'd think the arbitration numbers often take the other side by surprise when they are ultimately revealed..

[J-Roc]

These are still negotiation numbers at this point, not arbitration numbers? I say they give him $10M for one season and see how it goes. No need to worry about locking him up long term. If he earns his money next season, then sign him to whatever fat contract other teams are offering. Jays are supposed to have the money the big boys have.

[wlujaysfan55]

Thanks Dagger. Correct me if I'm wrong here but the disincentive for players to go to arbitration is the team has the option to terminate the contract early on with significantly low termination pay whereas the disincentive for the team is a higher salary for the player.

[Chevy Chase]

The arbitration is non-binding. Both the team and the player submit their best final offer to the league office. Then an arbitrator can select the number submitted by either the player or the team, but cannot choose any other number. If the arbitrator chooses the players number and the team feels its too high, then the team has the option to walk away, essentially making the player a free agent.

While players and teams can continue to bargain up until the hearing date, AA has said that he will not negotiate a deal past the deadline to file. He has recently amended his stance to say that he will not negotiate a one year deal after the deadline to file, but that he would entertain multi-year deals. I assume this is to entice Bautista to sign a longer contract.

[wlujaysfan55]

Thanks. Very unlikely the jays will let him walk as a free-agent so imo, JB has nothing to lose here by going to arbitration. However, if I'm JB, I really consider the longer term deal. If he doesn't, I've gotta admire his confidence in his abilities as he will need to show last season was no fluke to get > $10M on the free agent market for 2012. If he's a 30HR, 100RBI guy, look for him to get offers in the $12M range.

At $10.5M, I would guess than the Jays exposure for a multi-year contract is $30-$40M depending on whether it's a 3 or 4 year deal & a deal JB would probably take.

At $7.5M, that's b/w $22.5M-$30M for a 3 or 4 year deal & it's likely a contract JB would not sign today.

I suspect AA would want a 3 year deal to hedge his bets JB hits like the pre-2010 JB. If so, he'll probably be willing to go over $7.5M and may overpay a bit to get a deal done.

If JB wants a 4 year deal, I suspect AA may be interested but at a discount for the added security.

So, perhaps JB would be content with $9 or $9.5M over 3 years - which is b/w $27-$28.5M.
If he wants 4 years, perhaps $8M or $8.5M - which is b/w $32-$34M.

If he were to sign either of those deals & I were to look back in hindsight at the deal, I'd say AA made the right move even if JB turns out to be a bust. Given his ability to play multiple positions at a high level, his strong throwing arm, his leadership abilities and imo, his ability to hit HR's & drive in runs (big fan of his swing, plate presence & ability to adapt), I wouldn't be against the 3/4 year deal & wouldn't hold against AA.

If he has another solid year, look for him to get offers for $48-$60M over 4-5 years.

Imo, hopefully the 2 sides can come to some sort of agreement.

[satyr9]

I see very little downside to a 1 year arby deal. You give him the long-term offer your comfortable with - IMO 3/25-27 would be my max comfort level - and if you can't bring him into that range you take the arby no problem. If you lose it's a couple extra million for a single season, no problems there.

You do leave an awkward problem if he stays absolutely brilliant, but the worst case scenario here doesn't really scare me too much. I don't have a lot of problems having a 30-40 HR guy on the trade market at the deadline if Bautista keeps it up and starts looking too pricey to re-sign.

[DonYon]

some of you guys think he'll take 3-4 year extension for less than 10 mil per year? seriously?
I will use Jason Werth for comparison sake. Jason Werth is currently 31, and got his mega deal this off season (17 + million over 7 years i believe). Bautista will be 31 in the winter of 2012, when he's due to hit the market.

Jason Werth only showed 2... MAYBE 3 full seasons of legitimate productivity before his free agency. If Bautista even hits 30-35 home runs this year with similar production as last year from other areas, he'll have 2 very good season under his belt. I personally think their overall defense would be rated about the same, but I guess some could argue that.

The point is, I think his agent is gonna have a pretty good leverage for a long-term contract negotiation. Depending on the season he has, he might even be able to argue that Bautista is even better than Werth, and it's clear from Bautista's arbitration stance that he's already considering himself to be an upper-echelon player. For me it's not that hard to foresee Bautista getting a ludicrous offer from some team like NY, Texas, the LAs, the Chicagos next winter, and I'm sure that Bautista and his agent are aware of this. I'd be shocked if Bautista demands anything less than something like 3/4 years at 40-60 million for an extension.

[satyr9]

You could very well be right and if I were the Jays GM it would make my options much easier to choose from.

That being said I'm always cheap with the new contract dollars, so anything up to 50% more than what I said is probably within a "reasonable" ballpark.

Of course if he's halfway through another 50HR type season and the Jays look like they could be on the verge of really competing, my brain may turn to total goo (and as much as they're professionals, I'd say there's a fairly decent chance that can happen to Jays management too) and I'll start screaming to re-up him even at Arod prices.