RealGM

Just a fun off season thread strictly about hitting.

Forget about everything else, how many home runs will it take for you to think Jose Bautista had a good hitting season?

31-35

he'll hit something like 270/370/510

44

I said 26-30.

If he gets close to 30 I'll be happy.

I see him following a similar pattern to Carlos Pena, which is his average going down to something around .240 but he'll still mash out close to 40 home runs since waiting on one pitch to muscle it out seems to be his forte. Also, look for him to be more motivated if he doesn't get a contract extension done by spring.

Oh ye of little faith.

Was that swing an illusion?

I think his OBP and BB% next year will be a much better indicator of how he's hit than his HR total. If pitchers are smart, they'll stop giving him anything to hit over the plate. That should lead to a lot more walks if Bautista stays patient (sort of like what happened to Bonds from 2002-2004 after his massive HR year of 2001).

Really, I don't really see much of a reason to expect a drop off in performance. His peripherals were more than solid and if he's kept the same swing, why would much change?

.250/.380/.540 with 35 HR maybe?

He was so honed in, even most of his fouls would go straight back. Usually when he did pop up it was the right side because he guessed wrong on an outside pitch. Expect plenty of walks as he's pitched outside more, more pop-ups to the right side, but still plenty of HRs (35 sounds right).

Insane stat I just learned: Joey Votto had a 0.0% infield fly rate last year.

I also see a Carlos Pena-like decline where his walk rate and power remain good but his batting average goes down and OPS dips into the .800's. Pitchers will work around him more and it is up to him to continue the plate patience he showed last season.

I think Bautista with his revamped swing is no longer the .750 OPS player he was prior to 2010. I just don't feel he's the .950-1.000 OPS player he showed last season either. Hopefully I'm wrong because Bautista's 2010 was one of the most exciting offensive seasons I have seen in Jays history. If he can repeat that moving forward, great.

LittleOzzy wrote:I said 26-30.

If he gets close to 30 I'll be happy.

+1

SharoneWright wrote:Oh ye of little faith.

Was that swing an illusion?

i'm glad i'm not the only one who thinks his swing is something else. His follow through is awesome.

I'd like to say in the 40's but I can't for the simple reason that I've seen player after player digress in year 2 after putting up unexpected power #'s. Blame it on internal/external expectations, pitching around him or with more breaking balls, etc. but while I hope for 40+ will predict a more conservative # of 30-35 HR's.

25 dingers is my guess.

I see opposing pitchers pitching him differently, and possibly walking him more.

~40 dingers. but he'll walk more.
.270 ba .930 ops

45 bombs and a lot of walks. Welcome the games newest power hitter.

Somewhere in the range of 30. But is it clear if Farrell will be giving everyone the green light to swing away?

J-Roc wrote:Somewhere in the range of 30. But is it clear if Farrell will be giving everyone the green light to swing away?

Not everyone but I'm guessing Jose will be allowed to swing away the same as last season.

LittleOzzy wrote:

J-Roc wrote:Somewhere in the range of 30. But is it clear if Farrell will be giving everyone the green light to swing away?

Not everyone but I'm guessing Jose will be allowed to swing away the same as last season.

FWIW,

Farrell, meanwhile, offered fans some insight into the style of baseball he anticipated the team playing, saying he didn't want to move away from the power game of 2010, but rather allowing players to be "more aggressive on the basepaths," drawing applause.

"There are a lot of good pitchers in this division, we can't sit around waiting for the home run," he said, before adding a quip: "It doesn't mean we're going to try and turn (notoriously lead-footed catcher) Jose Molina(notes) into a base-stealer."

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl ... se-5783669

Randle McMurphy wrote:I think his OBP and BB% next year will be a much better indicator of how he's hit than his HR total. If pitchers are smart, they'll stop giving him anything to hit over the plate. That should lead to a lot more walks if Bautista stays patient (sort of like what happened to Bonds from 2002-2004 after his massive HR year of 2001).

Really, I don't really see much of a reason to expect a drop off in performance. His peripherals were more than solid and if he's kept the same swing, why would much change?

.250/.380/.540 with 35 HR maybe?

Yeah, sounds about right...his BA likely to rise, as despite his uppercut swing he was unusually unlucky. I'd say .255/.375/.520 and ~30 HRs; significant dropoff in ISO from .357 (which is crazy) to .265 (still excellent) and an OPS around .900. Still pretty damned good, though not top-5 MVP calibre.

Since joining the Jays, Bautista has hit 3 homers in 2008,13 in 2009 and then 54 in 2010. Based on that I expect no less than 216 dingers this year!

xAIRNESSx wrote:Since joining the Jays, Bautista has hit 3 homers in 2008,13 in 2009 and then 54 in 2010. Based on that I expect no less than 216 dingers this year!

I like this math.