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Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank

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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#21 » by luvtheteam » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:21 am

luvtheteam wrote:
Really. You're going to use wins, and strikeouts per 9 as your argument...something he has no control over and something else he was working on was trying to pitch to contact and get quicker outs. I'm not saying Drabek is going to be an ace, but those aren't the arguments/stats I'd use to attest to that. Personally I love Stewart and think he's closer to Drabek in terms of prospect level than people realize.


Yeah...strikeouts per 9 is where i'd hang my hat. If a guy was really throwing flames the way you describe, combined with the great curveball i've seen, he would be mowing guys down in AA like crazy. So, yes 7.3 per 9 is the red flag that something is missing. And based on what i saw, it's the lack of movement on the fastball, and as well, it doesn't look anywhere near the 97 Law talks about. That's most important too. We're not talking about a guy we haven't seen pitch and just quoting stats. I was always scratching my head about the accolade he was receiving thru the summer and i didn't think his stats were so impressive. Then when i saw him pitch i put it all together.

I don't think it was a fatigue issue that you propose, as the club said his last start in AA, which was a playoff game, had been his best of the year. So he was peaking more than he was fatiguing.

Heh...not trying to discourage anyone. I just think there's too many guys raving about Drabek's fastball and their giving the wrong impression IMO. (Even his dad said his curveball was his best pitch). I'm optimistic they can work with him and get that fastball moving more so guys don't tee off on it like they were doing at times in his few stints in September.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#22 » by The_Hater » Fri Jan 28, 2011 6:18 pm

I have to agree about Drabek's K rate, I have also viewed it as the red flag in the middle of a lot of positive reviews. Nobody can disagree that is very low for a pitcher that is projected to be a #1 guy in the majors, and you'd be hard pressed to find any stud MLB pitcher with a minor league K rate lower than Drabek's.

I'm not saying that this guarantee's he'll be a flop but it lowers my expectation level.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#23 » by Hoopstarr » Fri Jan 28, 2011 6:43 pm

Roy Halladay had mediocre K rates up until a few years ago too. 5.9 in the minors. Drabek's fastball should be a lot more effective as he works on the changeup.

And I don't know where luv is seeing all this raving about his fastball. The raving is definitely about his curve, which is considered the best in the minors.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#24 » by Randle McMurphy » Fri Jan 28, 2011 7:52 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:Roy Halladay had mediocre K rates up until a few years ago too. 5.9 in the minors. Drabek's fastball should be a lot more effective as he works on the changeup.

Halladay isn't exactly a normal pitcher, though.

To me, I've never seen Drabek as a #1, but there's nothing wrong with what he is.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#25 » by Avenger » Fri Jan 28, 2011 7:57 pm

Whoever it is that said Drabek's fastball is flat, watch this. Check out the cutter at 0.40 and the two seamer(95 mph!) at .48, that's some nasty movement.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12114957
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#26 » by Hoopstarr » Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:26 pm

Yea that two seamer to get Weiters was ridiculous. Ton of late movement. What's crazy is that Stewart is supposed to have even better movement.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#27 » by Mike Hunt » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:05 pm

The Deck McGuire statement was quite ridiculous. I have never seen one report suggesting the guy would be a 4th starter. The only thing you hear is "probably not an ace". That means #2 or #3 guy is very much in play. When you consider that the Jays got the guy in the first round, later than most outlets had him going, it's safe to say that most aren't seeing a #4 starter when looking at the guy. It just doesn't make sense for a guy with any baseball credentials to make such a statement. Especially so early on.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#28 » by Schad » Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:09 pm

Mike Hunt wrote:The Deck McGuire statement was quite ridiculous. I have never seen one report suggesting the guy would be a 4th starter.


A fair number of evaluators considered him a middle/late rotation guy going into the draft. It's why I was extremely pissed with the pick.

It just doesn't make sense for a guy with any baseball credentials to make such a statement. Especially so early on.


As for "so early on", he isn't basing it on what McGuire was done in the pros, given that McGuire has yet to pitch an inning as a professional. He's basing it on what McGuire did in college, and it's definitely not too early to evaluate him on that basis.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#29 » by Kaizen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:13 pm

He is saying his ceiling is as a 4th starter. Do you agree with that? I hate the pick too but would be stunned if that was truly the case.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#30 » by Schad » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:00 am

CZAR85 wrote:He is saying his ceiling is as a 4th starter. Do you agree with that? I hate the pick too but would be stunned if that was truly the case.


I couldn't say personally that his ceiling is that of a fourth starter, because I simply haven't seen enough footage. But I don't think that it's an unreasonable assertion if he doesn't see McGuire's stuff improving much.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#31 » by Hendrix » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:10 am

Can someone tell me why Mastroianni always seems to be left off rankings?

Whenever I see him he's putting up some pretty good #'s, and his numbers always strike me as just about perfect for the leadoff spot, which we've been having a tough time filling for a while. .398obp 2 years ago with 70-15 SB-CS. And .390obp with 46sb-10cs in AA last year. Am I missing something that's stopping us from giving him a chance, and chalenging Davis for CF?

Also I kinda think Perez should be higher/
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#32 » by Schad » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:21 am

Basically, Mastro is 25 and hasn't even made AAA yet. Most aren't going to give him a tonne of credit for hitting fairly well (though with scarcely any power) at levels where he's a couple years overage.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#33 » by Hendrix » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:54 am

He was 24 last seasons. And he's been doing pretty damn good since 23y/o. Why didn't he move up quicker? It seems unnecesary to have him stick around AA for 200 games when he's 23/24 and doing pretty damn good. And really would hitting in Vegas be any more impresive then hitting in NH?

Also while he doesn't have much power. His AA .764ops looks a whole lot better when you factor in 84sb's with 18cs's. Is there some kind of forumula that will factor SB's into ops or something?
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#34 » by Schad » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:28 am

Hendrix wrote:He was 24 last seasons. And he's been doing pretty damn good since 23y/o. Why didn't he move up quicker? It seems unnecesary to have him stick around AA for 200 games when he's 23/24 and doing pretty damn good. And really would hitting in Vegas be any more impresive then hitting in NH?


It would with a singles hitter. He hit .362 on balls in play, and there's a significant chance that his average falls off considerably against good defenses and solid pitching.

As for why they left him in AA all year, I dunno. Guessing that they weren't particularly enthused about him...96 Ks in 525 ABs isn't terrible if you have power, but with none it does make it difficult to imagine him getting on-base enough to be a leadoff guy in the bigs, even with his ability to take walks.

Also while he doesn't have much power. His AA .764ops looks a whole lot better when you factor in 84sb's with 18cs's. Is there some kind of forumula that will factor SB's into ops or something?


Not that I'm aware...
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#35 » by Hoopstarr » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:37 am

They were enthused enough to put him on the 40-man. And Rajai Davis came up at 25 too. I wish ML Splits was still active so I could check Mastro's splits for a platoon with Davis but I would make him a 4th OF regardless. BA said he had the best strike zone judgment in the FSL. Beats giving the spot to a retread like Patterson.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#36 » by There There » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:47 am

Hendrix wrote:Can someone tell me why Mastroianni always seems to be left off rankings?

Whenever I see him he's putting up some pretty good #'s, and his numbers always strike me as just about perfect for the leadoff spot, which we've been having a tough time filling for a while. .398obp 2 years ago with 70-15 SB-CS. And .390obp with 46sb-10cs in AA last year. Am I missing something that's stopping us from giving him a chance, and chalenging Davis for CF?

Also I kinda think Perez should be higher/


Not sure if it was posted previously, but here's an article from a couple of weeks ago in the Star about Mastro and his time in the Venezuelan Winter league.

It'll be interesting to see how much of a chance he is actually given to make the club out of spring training

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/921767--no-rest-for-jays-outfield-prospect
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#37 » by SharoneWright » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:43 pm

If you're in the Jays' system, short of making the big club, AA is prime time.
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Re: Keith Law's Top 10 Jays prospects plus top 100 overall rank 

Post#38 » by Schad » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:15 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:They were enthused enough to put him on the 40-man. And Rajai Davis came up at 25 too. I wish ML Splits was still active so I could check Mastro's splits for a platoon with Davis but I would make him a 4th OF regardless. BA said he had the best strike zone judgment in the FSL. Beats giving the spot to a retread like Patterson.


Yeah, I'd look at him as a fourth outfielder. It's just that being a prospective fourth outfielder in a good system at age 25 doesn't get you on most prospect lists.
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