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Hmmmmm....could we have had Chapman if AA hadn't been getting married???


http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/30/aski ... questions/

I'm really confident inthe Jays Future right now, I think AA has that it factor that makes someone special in their chosen profession

He definately excells because he combines natural talent and hard work. And a bonus that he loves it so much!

I'm always envious of guys that just know what they want to do from a young age.

Good find. AA at that stage of his career was not going to go that high for Chapman, wedding or no. I'm not saying it was a Babcock-drafting-Hoffa-type rookie mistake, but a brand new GM just wouldn't do something like that.

Now, would he do it (based on the info he had at the time), or try and persuade Rogers to do it? Good question.

luvtheteam wrote:I'm always envious of guys that just know what they want to do from a young age.

And be willing to give the sure bucks to pursue a dream. Aspiring musicians do it all the time, but the odds are virtually impossible. It's not a sane thing to do.

tecumseh18 wrote:Good find. AA at that stage of his career was not going to go that high for Chapman, wedding or no. I'm not saying it was a Babcock-drafting-Hoffa-type rookie mistake, but a brand new GM just wouldn't do something like that.
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Ha ha...yeah, nothing like a Hoffa rookie mistake. But, may have been the sigining of the year, or close to it, so it was a miss of sorts. I think AA was suggesting in the article he wasn't fully prepared, or didn't have all the info he needed, so it does make you wonder if he could have committed 100% to this transaction whether he would have convinced himself it was a good deal. $30mm sounds like a lot but of course JP spend $55mm or so on a closer with nowhere near the velocity. Also, you get the feeling that AA is one of these guys who 'gets his man'. We saw that when he nabbed the top young int'l free agent (Cardona).

That audio interview from a week or two ago talked about some of the clauses in that deal that make it sound pretty unlikely they would've gone that high. Some stuff about turning it into signing bonus when arbitration time comes that could make it cost them even more than 34 for the 5 years? I don't remember the specifics, but if Aroldis turns out to be unable to start I'm not even sure I would've wanted him at the price it's set to be and that's even knowing how good he can be.

Great article. Makes me think of the guys on these forums like Schad who I guess do all this work for free. OTOH, it's clear AA had enough money to carry him through all these volunteer jobs. So he still gets respect, but it has to be in that context.

As for Chapman, I think AA just decided in his own cost/benefit analysis that $30M wasn't worth it for just "an arm". If money is no object, then a team like the Red Sox can afford to spend $50M for the right to sign what turns out to be an aiiight pitcher in Dice K. Every organization needs to draw a line somewhere, and I think AA made an informed decision that Chapman wasn't worth it to the Blue Jays.

satyr/j roc...and who knows, maybe we could see him down the road. When we think of what they jays did with Morrow, and what they are trying to do with Jojo, maybe they'll swoop in and grab Aroldis with a year or 2 left and see if they can work their magic on him. Guess it will depend on how much success he has in Cinci, or what it would take to get him. Just speculating...but you never know if his name could come up at some time in the future.

luvtheteam wrote: I think AA was suggesting in the article he wasn't fully prepared, or didn't have all the info he needed, so it does make you wonder if he could have committed 100% to this transaction whether he would have convinced himself it was a good deal. $30mm sounds like a lot but of course JP spend $55mm or so on a closer with nowhere near the velocity. Also, you get the feeling that AA is one of these guys who 'gets his man'. We saw that when he nabbed the top young int'l free agent (Cardona).

Yeah, I caught that. I hope it's not that AA is the type who can't admit a failure, and blames external circumstances when things don't go his way.

But to commit that much to a prospect pitcher with an unprecedented arm (make that 15 mph more than BJ), I don't think he would have done it even with "more information". Not as a rookie GM who seems to be really, really sharp. It just seems so out of character. We see it this spring with Morrow and Cecil and F-Squared (knock on wood), we see with Strasburg and Dice-K, pitchers are just such a crap shoot. Surely AA knows that. Spread the money around and buy more lottery tickets, that's what I say.

tec...i've been wondering what was the 'more information' he was referring to. Maybe they just hadn't seen him pitch enough or maybe it was more info on his character. I wouldn't think it would health related issues as i'm sure any contract would have been contingent on a full checkup.

My best guess is that they just hadn't seen him pitch enough to commit the larger numbers, or maybe they just didn't get enough scouts looking at him. Recall he sent 12 scouts to see Deck pitch before they selected him in the draft. Maybe he just wanted more input from more people to help support the decision, but didn't have it.