I don't care what you experts say...

Kid Vicious · Post #1 » by **Kid Vicious** » Mon May 16, 2011 11:12 am

We''re 1/4 through the season, and 2 games out of a playoff spot...3 games out of a division crown. We have the best player in the game, solid pitching and are getting healthy. Hill is starting to come around too...

I see absolutely no reason why we Jays fans can't at least 'entertain' the thought of a playoff push this season. Every single season, there's at least 1 or 2 teams that come out of nowhere and make the playoffs....why not us this year? Look around the AL...there isn't a single team that has really stood out. The AL East looks as weak as it has in years.

We need some positivity and optimism instead of the same tired and boring 'realism' and look to the future. Who's with me?...Who thinks there will be October baseball in TO for the first time in 18 years?

Ong_dynasty · Post #2 » by **Ong_dynasty** » Mon May 16, 2011 11:54 am

I am on the bandwagon.
now who wants to make sigs saying "why not us?" (just watched the 30 on 30 on the '04 redsox).

I do agree to a certain extent, but i do think to entertain such thoughts we need an extra batter + someone like cecil getting back to last years form (so jo-jo will not be part of the rotation).
after that, it truly is..why not us!

Post #3 » by **J.Kim** » Mon May 16, 2011 12:41 pm

I'd entertain the thought but there's quite a few ifs at play here:
If the Jays are still in contention by July/August
If there are appropriate pieces on the market that can be had relatively cheaply (young, position of need and doesn't require trading away many prospects)
If there is sufficient visible weaknesses in whoever is leading at that point, whether it'd be the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays
And considering the above, if the bats in the minors are not ready to come up and stay up yet (most notably Thames and Lawrie)

That's a very specific situation in which I'd be okay with the Jays pursuing potential trades.

In any other situation (which is likely to happen) I'd be reluctant. It's only mid-May now so there's a lot of Baseball left to be played. No one knows how the standings are going to end up 2 months from now.

Also, there's the fact that while the Jays do have a great farm system, they can't go trading away talent left and right just to fill up on whatever is available at the trade deadline. It's not that deep enough... at least not yet (I think after this year and next year's draft there should be a sufficient amount of quality prospects that the Jays can afford to trade away). I'd much rather them take a wait and see approach, at the very least for this season.

Finally, there's the fact that starting next year, another wild-card will be added to the playoffs. There's a good chance that the Jays could potentially compete starting next season without even having to sell off prospects for stop gap players this season. They can do it with the talent they've grown internally with the added benefit of having significant organizational depth that to shore up any weaknesses that next year's team would have. So if that's the case, I'd much rather do it that way since it would be a much more sustainable method.

tecumseh18 · Post #4 » by **tecumseh18** » Mon May 16, 2011 1:00 pm

Let's talk after the road trip. We just swept a terrible, terrible team. It got our run differential up to +11 (Baltimore is a half game behind with a -20).

If there are some attainable free agents (say Prince Fielder and a #1/1A pitcher who can go more than 7 innings regularly) this off-season, I'm okay with waiting. Drabek is too far away. JPA is definitely getting there, but isn't quite. Lawrie needs to come in and establish himself at third. Jojo must go, with a serviceable replacement at the ready.

youngLion · Post #5 » by **youngLion** » Mon May 16, 2011 1:47 pm

Well I certainly don't want the team to trade the farm for the sake of getting a rental, but I'm totally on board with believing that the team can compete this year. I refuse to write of the season as a building year in mid May. in short, go Jays.

dagger · Post #6 » by **dagger** » Mon May 16, 2011 2:21 pm

The next month seems crucial. If we're still competitive in mid-June, we can entertain bringing up Lawrie and/or Thames. The next month will tell us whether Cecil and Snider can contribute this year. Also, by mid-June, some teams will decide to be sellers and start looking for trade partners, and AA can assess what's available. For example, if the Mets put Reyes on the block, I'd be interested to know the asking price in prospects, and of course whether Reyes would consider an extension.

evilRyu · Post #7 » by **evilRyu** » Mon May 16, 2011 3:43 pm

Well interestingly enough we are facing the Tigers, who are the current wildcard leaders. They are leading by 2 games, which is how far back the Jays are. Take care of business, and they could be tied for the lead by Tuesday night

Post #8 » by **YogiStewart** » Mon May 16, 2011 3:53 pm

baseball's schedule allows the separation of the wheat from the chaff.

let's be honest: we have the best player in baseball playing for us right now. he's on a mind-blowing pace that he may or may not be able to keep up for the entire season.
we have two very good starters.

after that, the Jays are a crap show.
we don't have a solid DH. we don't have a solid 3B and Nix is an ok stoo-gap measure.
we have a CF who can steal bases but can't get on base.
our catcher is average at best (arguably below average) and quite green.
3 of our starters are average or below average (sorry, Drabek has quite a ways to go).

we should be happy that we're at .500. unless something magical transpires and we can emulate last year's Giants, we don't have nearly enough talent to make a serious playoff push.

Randle McMurphy · Post #9 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:11 pm

They're still the 4th best team in the division, no matter how you look at them. It's unfortunate that they're wasting potentially one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, but that's Rogers for you.

Randle McMurphy · Post #10 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:13 pm

The Jays could look a hell of a lot better in a month, by the way, with Cecil and Snider returning (I assume), and Thames and Lawrie up. Still won't get them past NYY, BOS, or TAM, I doubt, but they'll still be a good team.

Randle McMurphy · Post #11 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:15 pm

YogiStewart wrote:baseball's schedule allows the separation of the wheat from the chaff.

let's be honest: we have the best player in baseball playing for us right now. he's on a mind-blowing pace that he may or may not be able to keep up for the entire season.
we have two very good starters.

after that, the Jays are a crap show.
we don't have a solid DH. we don't have a solid 3B and Nix is an ok stoo-gap measure.
we have a CF who can steal bases but can't get on base.
our catcher is average at best (arguably below average) and quite green.
3 of our starters are average or below average (sorry, Drabek has quite a ways to go).

we should be happy that we're at .500. unless something magical transpires and we can emulate last year's Giants, we don't have nearly enough talent to make a serious playoff push.

This is also wrong, they have a much better team than you give them credit for:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

tecumseh18 · Post #12 » by **tecumseh18** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:18 pm

YogiStewart wrote:we don't have a solid DH. we don't have a solid 3B and Nix is an ok stoo-gap measure.
we have a CF who can steal bases but can't get on base.
our catcher is average at best (arguably below average) and quite green.
3 of our starters are average or below average (sorry, Drabek has quite a ways to go).

we should be happy that we're at .500. unless something magical transpires and we can emulate last year's Giants, we don't have nearly enough talent to make a serious playoff push.

I've basically said the same thing above. It will be hard to do anything in September if Drabek and Morrow are on innings restriction.

BUT, if we get Lawrie up sooner rather than later to nail down third, then DH isn't the hardest position to fill. Hill may have gotten it together. JPA is not a disaster defensively.

So to make any noise this year, the main need would appear to be a Jack Morris-esque innings eater with an ERA not too far north of 4.00 . Would that be too hard to acquire sometime in June?

DonVitoMan · Post #13 » by **DonVitoMan** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:22 pm

Is it even realistic that we can have a chance at getting Fielder?

Post #14 » by **LittleOzzy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:29 pm

youngLion · Post #15 » by **youngLion** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:39 pm

DonVitoMan wrote:Is it even realistic that we can have a chance at getting Fielder?

It's absolutely realistic. In the offseason, when he's a free agent. I wouldn't want to give up any kind of decent prospect for him now for that very reason.

evilRyu · Post #16 » by **evilRyu** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:46 pm

youngLion wrote:
DonVitoMan wrote:Is it even realistic that we can have a chance at getting Fielder?

It's absolutely realistic. In the offseason, when he's a free agent. I wouldn't want to give up any kind of decent prospect for him now for that very reason.

You'll still surrender your draft pick though (a 1st rounder, right?)

What about the Yankees.. they may be in the market for a DH

Post #17 » by **Geddy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:48 pm

Didn't the Jays have most difficult schedule for the first half of the season? I think if they are within 5 games of the division lead, or the wildcard by the all star break then they have a legitimate shot. No one else seems to be running away yet so they shouldn't be written off this early.

i hope by the end of the season we don't look back and realize that JoJo's starts were the cause of missing the playoffs.

Randle McMurphy · Post #18 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:50 pm

DonVitoMan wrote:Is it even realistic that we can have a chance at getting Fielder?

Rogers has the money.

Michael Bradley · Post #19 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon May 16, 2011 4:55 pm

A lineup with Rivera, Encarnacion, Nix, Patterson, Davis, etc, getting extensive playing time is not going to be able to get it done over the course of the season no matter how much Bautista can mask some of those issues.

The best way to go for the rest of the season would be to platoon Patterson/Davis in CF, and call up Thames (DH/LF), Snider (LF/DH), and Lawrie (3B). The bench would then become EE (3B/1B/DH), McDonald (IF), Davis/Patterson (OF), and Molina (CA).

I think the team can finish strong like they did last season (85-ish wins, maybe a little less) but playoffs is way too optimistic. If they still had Marcum, and maybe turned some players into Rasmus in the off-season, then I'd be a little more of a believer. The talent level just isn't there yet, unfortunately.

youngLion · Post #20 » by **youngLion** » Mon May 16, 2011 5:06 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:A lineup with Rivera, Encarnacion, Nix, Patterson, Davis, etc, getting extensive playing time is not going to be able to get it done over the course of the season no matter how much Bautista can mask some of those issues.

I disagree. Rivera has shown he's capable of putting up decent offensive production; he was pretty good just two years ago in 2009. Davis is coming off two pretty good years, and I don't think it's fair or realistic to look at his current stats (based only on 86 ABs)) as an indication of how he'll perform this year. I think he can be a pretty good leadoff hitter.

Moreover you seem to be assuming that Snider won't give the team anything this year. If he comes back then Rivera and Patterson go back to being the team's 4th and 5th outfielders anyway, or Rivera DHs and Patterson goes back to the bench.

Also who knows what will happen with injuries and other x factors to the other teams in the division. I'm no saying that they're the favorites, but I don't see why the Jays can't have a shot if Snider and Cecil come back and produce.