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Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 1:09 am
by LittleOzzy
Concerns about the Jays' present closer situation reached a fever pitch on July 7 when Travis Hafner's walk-off grand slam in the ninth inning gave the Cleveland Indians a come-from-behind 5-4 win. It was a devastating loss that saw closer Frank Francisco once again implode with the game on the line.
To the team's credit, they rebounded to win the final three games of the series, but not without more late-inning drama the following two contests.
Both Francisco and soft-throwing Jon Rauch have struggled to hold leads this year. As a team, the Jays have blown 15 saves, second-most in the American League. If the Toronto relievers had staved off the opposition in just five of those contests, the team would be in thick of the American League wild-card race.
So how can the Jays solve their closer woes? Where can they find their next Henke?
In-house options
Some suggest Jason Frasor, who's having one of his best seasons, deserves the ball in the ninth inning, but the diminutive right-hander has struggled in the closer's role before and is susceptible to home runs. Fellow right-hander Octavio Dotel, who look awful earlier this season and has allowed just one earned run over the past month and owns 106 career saves, represents a better option.
The best option, however, is to move reliever-turned starter Carlos Villanueva into the closer's role and summon Joel Carreno (7-6, 3.32 ERA in 17 starts at AA New Hampshire) to replace him in the rotation. The Jays have voiced concerns about the number of innings that Villanueva has tossed this season, so inserting him in a ninth-inning role would reduce his workload and make him available for the entire campaign.
Prior to joining the starting rotation on May 23, Villanueva, who recorded 16 saves with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2007 to 2010, was the club's most effective relief pitcher and his 67 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings in relief in 2010 indicate he's capable of overpowering hitters.
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/kevingle ... nueva.html
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 1:35 am
by Schad
There is actually some logic in this, based on Villanueva's innings limit and our need to give Carreno a test-run before year's end. I'm not certain that Villanueva would prove any better than the others (and his 89.2 average fastball velocity kinda puts the lie that he's likely to overpower anyone), but the versatility could bolster his trade value, I guess.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 1:54 am
by CapeCrusader
Couldn't hurt at this point.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:02 am
by OldNo7
Based on our current roster, I would support giving that a try. Ideally though, your closer misses bats on a consistent basis.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:16 am
by Skin Blues
OldNo7 wrote:Based on our current roster, I would support giving that a try. Ideally though, your closer misses bats on a consistent basis.
67 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings in relief in 2010
He has 9+ K/9 in his career as a reliever.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:18 am
by flatjacket1
OldNo7 wrote:Based on our current roster, I would support giving that a try. Ideally though, your closer misses bats on a consistent basis.
Ideally your starter misses 27
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:44 am
by OldNo7
Skin Blues wrote:OldNo7 wrote:Based on our current roster, I would support giving that a try. Ideally though, your closer misses bats on a consistent basis.
67 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings in relief in 2010
He has 9+ K/9 in his career as a reliever.
435/503 for his career. Not terrible, but not what I view as a closer. (someone give me Venters from Atlanta!)
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:53 am
by rarefind
Call me crazy but I much prefer Villanueva as a starter which is something I never would have imagined saying in April or when we stole him from Milwaukee. The guy has been lights out and pretty much dominant; probably our best pitcher (based on his limited amount of starts). Quite frankly, starting pitching is more valuable than relievers, even closers. In my opinion we wait it out and hope that one of our young arms (hopefully Alvarez) can pan out and fill that role sooner rather than later. Villanueva has been so good starting that taking him out the rotation doesn't make much sense in my books. You could sooner flip him for a good piece in the bullpen and an additional prospect as far as I'm concerned.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:40 am
by Weems
Villanueva's been giving up significantly fewer hits and HR than ever. Both are unsustainable rates.
He hasn't added any pitches as a starter and doesn't appear to have refined any either. Batters have either struggled mightily adapting to his good/not great stuff, or he's getting "lucky" out there. His fastball usage has also increased 18% since last season (including his 13 appearances from the pen early on, so probably more as starter) and it's been a consistently well below average pitch in his career until this season where it's well above average. Not sure if that's relevant but it seems odd.
But he's useful and I'd keep him in the rotation for now. Reyes should be first to go.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:56 am
by Skin Blues
OldNo7 wrote:Skin Blues wrote:OldNo7 wrote:Based on our current roster, I would support giving that a try. Ideally though, your closer misses bats on a consistent basis.
67 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings in relief in 2010
He has 9+ K/9 in his career as a reliever.
435/503 for his career. Not terrible, but not what I view as a closer. (someone give me Venters from Atlanta!)
SP and RP are completely different roles. 303/300 as a reliever, 132/204 as a starter.
I really doubt he turns out to be much as a SP. He's been good, but I don't think it'll last. I suppose they'll at least wait until he sucks in back to back starts, but might as well give him a shot at closing after that. It'd be nice in Francisco could smarten up and be the pitcher he has been for the prior three seasons, but that doesn't seem imminent.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:32 pm
by JN
Worth a shot. Who knows who will turn into a great closer. If someone told me that Jeff Shaw would become a stud closer for a three year period after his time with the Montreal Expos I would have laughed in his face.
The closer role is important. I have seen people reference it as being worth only a few wins at most based on innings pitched, but I think those stats are skewed. Part of the problem is that you value one inning within a 220 inning sample the same as one inning within a 70 inning sample -- but in alot of the 220 innings the game is not that close. In the 70 innings the game is always on the line - the fact that the score is closer in those innings means they should have some more value. Not saying I would rather a starter be a closer, but just that alot of modern win value techniques seem to not fully grasp the fact that the closer has much less room for error. (and if there is one I would certainly like to now)
I am certainly pro advanced stats, but I do think that these techniques have undervalued the impact of a below average closer.
That being said I still think its a waste of resources to try to fill the closer's role externally. Try people internally. You never know who could react well to the role like a Jeff Shaw...
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:16 pm
by DonYon
I think it's interesting to note that the all-times saves leader threw a 90mph (or below) fastball for most of his career. He made a living on his change-up, which interestingly enough also happens to be villanueva's best pitch.
Re: Jays should give closer's job to Villanueva
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:05 am
by satyr9
DonYon wrote:I think it's interesting to note that the all-times saves leader threw a 90mph (or below) fastball for most of his career. He made a living on his change-up, which interestingly enough also happens to be villanueva's best pitch.
Not for long, that one pitch cutter guy is gonna make Hoffman his bitch, even if he has to pitch 'til he's 50 like Lee did.