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This week saw a momentous event of sorts. Apple brought out a new MacBook and priced it the same in Canada as it did in the US. In other words, a Canadian dollar is finally worth a US dollar for a major US multinational. We're making progress.

The Canadian dollar is rising towards another all-time high and seems unlikely to dip below par. The US political/economic crisis virtually assures that the dollar will remain strong. The stronger Canadian economy and high commodity prices probably means the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates, putting a floor underneath the dollar. The C$ is becoming a mini-reserve currency in time of crisis. Some economists believe the dollar will exceed US$1.10 this year and may reach US$1.15 before it has a self-correcting impact on the Canadian economy (i.e. manufacturers can't handle loss of export markets).

Blah, blah, blah.

In essence, baseball talent is becoming cheaper. Most of the Jays expenses, except for the stadium and local marketing, are in US dollars. All baseball salaries (including scouts, some head office people, maybe even AA) are in US dollars. Stadium and national TV revenues are in Canadian dollars. And the Jays attendance is up over 3,000 per game. They are still at the low end of MLB attendance, but not quite so dismal as in the past.

Some there is this juxtaposition - weak US$, crappy US economy, flat attendance, some teams in full salary dump mode, versus the Jays with a nice currency advantage, a very low payroll, and a unique discount on the cost of talent. And of course, baseball has no salary cap.

Yes, I understand that the currency may recede, even fall below par, though that can be hedged. And the cost of hedging against current costs may offset some of the current advantage.

So, how does this affect the Jays thinking for the next six months, taking us through the trade deadline and free agency.

To me, it says the Jays should be using this economic clout - and Beeston said Rogers is ready to be a bigger spender.

It should look at exploiting salary dumps to take on talent that can bridge the team until some of our hotter prospects from New Hampshire on down reach the majors and establish themselves.

It should look at dealing prospects like Cooper who don't necessarily suit our ambitions, packaging them for an upgrade that could include taking on a Rivera-like salary with one or two years to go.

And it should offer high end money to the best free agents like Jose Reyes who can fit into the longer-term picture.

I've been critical of Rogers' spending. Now with the currency advantage, the likely addition of a second wildcard team, etc, there is no reason to act like a lame small market owner.

From the perspective of a Jays fan, acquiring players should be strictly a baseball decision and not a monetary decision considering how wealthy Rogers is. I can't deny that the Canadian value has been strong, but I think it's a terrible idea to use the increase in purchasing power parity as a reason to spend more money on free agents. From business perspective it's going to mean committing more money to players for a duration of 5+ years depending who the players are, and it makes no sense to spend money just because they feel thy can bank on the economy being in their favor for that entire duration.

Although I highly doubt a few more million dollars spent on players would put Rogers in any sort of jeopardy, I don't think the economic factors change the building plan at all anyway. The struggles in the U.S. economy will certainly put some teams in financial difficulties (we've heard about enough teams cutting costs, salaries for this reason), but at the end of the day teams like yankees, sox, nationals, angels aren't spending less in the short term future, and the jays would need to offer up top dollars to free agents anyway in order to ultimately bid with these teams.

DonYon wrote:From the perspective of a Jays fan, acquiring players should be strictly a baseball decision and not a monetary decision considering how wealthy Rogers is. I can't deny that the Canadian value has been strong, but I think it's a terrible idea to use the increase in purchasing power parity as a reason to spend more money on free agents. From business perspective it's going to mean committing more money to players for a duration of 5+ years depending who the players are, and it makes no sense to spend money just because they feel thy can bank on the economy being in their favor for that entire duration.

Although I highly doubt a few more million dollars spent on players would put Rogers in any sort of jeopardy, I don't think the economic factors change the building plan at all anyway. The struggles in the U.S. economy will certainly put some teams in financial difficulties (we've heard about enough teams cutting costs, salaries for this reason), but at the end of the day teams like yankees, sox, nationals, angels aren't spending less in the short term future, and the jays would need to offer up top dollars to free agents anyway in order to ultimately bid with these teams.

The problem I have with that is when Canadian teams had to cope with a weak dollar they certainly used that to boost ticket prices and keep expenditures low. At some point, if you claim you intend to spend like a bigger market (I won't say big market because they can spend at insane and unjustifiable levels), you should put your money where your mouth is. The Jays payroll, even if you give the team extra latitude for higher draft spending, is still well south of $100 million.

Toronto? My fave. In 2002, when it cost $1.60 Canadian to buy one U.S. dollar, the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $76.8 million ($123 million Canadian). This year, with the Canadian dollar now worth $1.04 U.S., the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $78.6 million ($73.7 million).

So wait, who are the suckers here? The Blue Jays spent $123 million Canadian in 2002 and got "equalization payments" from other MLB teams and now spend $73.7 million on the squad? And want to whine about not competing with AL East behemoths? Please. They are owned by the largest cable conglomerate in Canada. As I've told Toronto baseball fans for years, whine to me about the AL East when your team's wealthy owners make a pretense at trying to "compete" in that division rather than keeping things profitable.

Believe me, I've seen Toronto's "five-year-plan" when it was touted back in 2002. After seven years, having acquired their stadium for a pittance ($30 million Canadian) they fired GM J.P. Ricciardi seven years into his "plan" and are now two years into the next one.

Read this the other day: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... wners.html

Dagger is right. There is really no excuse left for Rogers not to spend money this offseason. Of course, I think we all know better than to expect much from them.

Rogers is too damn cheap to bring out any dough. I think they're only in it for the entertainment and not for the winning.

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Toronto? My fave. In 2002, when it cost $1.60 Canadian to buy one U.S. dollar, the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $76.8 million ($123 million Canadian). This year, with the Canadian dollar now worth $1.04 U.S., the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $78.6 million ($73.7 million).

So wait, who are the suckers here? The Blue Jays spent $123 million Canadian in 2002 and got "equalization payments" from other MLB teams and now spend $73.7 million on the squad? And want to whine about not competing with AL East behemoths? Please. They are owned by the largest cable conglomerate in Canada. As I've told Toronto baseball fans for years, whine to me about the AL East when your team's wealthy owners make a pretense at trying to "compete" in that division rather than keeping things profitable.

Believe me, I've seen Toronto's "five-year-plan" when it was touted back in 2002. After seven years, having acquired their stadium for a pittance ($30 million Canadian) they fired GM J.P. Ricciardi seven years into his "plan" and are now two years into the next one.

Read this the other day: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... wners.html

Dagger is right. There is really no excuse left for Rogers not to spend money this offseason. Of course, I think we all know better than to expect much from them.

That's a fantastic article. Spot on. I love following the prospects, but there reaches a point where basing your entire future on them is delusional. Some of them will burst onto the major league scene and fade, or suffer major injuries. You can't contend without spending, and spending means risk. Risk means not always finding a rationale for why you don't spend on this type of player, or a particular player. It's one thing to debate the merits of a potential signing, but it's quite another to always have an answer for not taking the risk of giving out pricy long-term contracts. Following prospects can become a narcotic for the hardcore fan of a small market team.

I don't expect any real/winning changes. Typical torontonian loser mentality running the treadmill and recycling 5 year plans, all our major teams.

Everything is being run by owners that are only in it for the money and winning would be a nice side pot.

I don't really understand the need of spending tons of money. I would think all this team needs is a reliable closer, and a bat that can hit .300 and 20 home runs. Wouldn't an easy cheap solution be signing Jason Kubel, and Huston Street? This team would be in contention of the wild card if it wasn't for Rivera and Davis batting almost everyday earlier this year. We also have 15 ? Blown-saves after the 7th inning. If Lawrie can have a decent season, he would have solved the blackhole offense at 3rd base.

Our lineup becomes:
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
3B: Lawrie
SS: Escobar
LF: Thames
CF: Snider
RF: Bautista
DH: Kubel
C: JPA

Setup: Jassen/Zep
Closer: Street

With a rotation of: Romero, Morrow, Drabek, McGown/Litch/Stewart/Mills/Carreno/Alvarez

The starting rotation is a bit iffy but the batting lineup consist of 9 batter that could all possibly hit 20 HRs.

JoeyBats wrote:Our lineup becomes:
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
3B: Lawrie
SS: Escobar
LF: Thames
CF: Snider
RF: Bautista
DH: Kubel
C: JPA

Setup: Jassen/Zep
Closer: Street

With a rotation of: Romero, Morrow, Drabek, McGown/Litch/Stewart/Mills/Carreno/Alvarez

Nice lineup. Might come close to contending for a playoff spot, if every single player on that list has a career season.

JoeyBats wrote:I don't really understand the need of spending tons of money. I would think all this team needs is a reliable closer, and a bat that can hit .300 and 20 home runs. Wouldn't an easy cheap solution be signing Jason Kubel, and Huston Street? This team would be in contention of the wild card if it wasn't for Rivera and Davis batting almost everyday earlier this year. We also have 15 ? Blown-saves after the 7th inning. If Lawrie can have a decent season, he would have solved the blackhole offense at 3rd base.

Our lineup becomes:
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
3B: Lawrie
SS: Escobar
LF: Thames
CF: Snider
RF: Bautista
DH: Kubel
C: JPA

Setup: Jassen/Zep
Closer: Street

With a rotation of: Romero, Morrow, Drabek, McGown/Litch/Stewart/Mills/Carreno/Alvarez

The starting rotation is a bit iffy but the batting lineup consist of 9 batter that could all possibly hit 20 HRs.

That entire pitching staff is "iffy" beyond Romero and Morrow. Nice to include prospects that are two years away in some cases. Why not include prospects in the Gulf Coast League and Vancouver, too?

As I said in a thread earlier this week, you'll need another elite bat (Fielder?) and dependable starter (Darvish, Wilson?) to even hope to contend with the two best teams in baseball, Boston and New York, in 2012. There are just too many question marks at other positions to match up with them otherwise. Both are obviously things that Rogers can certainly afford this offseason.

Of course, if the extra playoff spot is added, the Jays won't need to be quite as good but improvements will still be needed.

Wilner is already preparing callers for the bow out right now:

I just heard him say the Jays had no chance to sign a major free agent and that this major player would go back to their own teams or sign with the Yankees and Red Sox, regardless of whether they had a player at his position or not (In this case, it was Pujols). It also wouldn't matter whether we had the money or not.

He was basically acknowledging that the Jays have absolutely no chance of getting an elite player to help Bautista. It's going to be home grown + one nearly washed up vet down stretch + pitching prospects vs. a power house if the Jays ever do qualify (with an extra team). You can extrapolate about Reyes and the like fairly obviously.

I think, really, the best we'll ever get is the top international signing once. A Chapman or a Darvish type. That's great and all, but it ain't enough. They need another top end guy on top of that AND another killer hitter.

Are we going to be thrilled to be Minnesota and get beat like a rented mule in the playoffs when/if we make them?

I mean, what is the point of this five year plan crap? They keep selling they want to try, but they don't want to have any risk. Life doesn't work that way, and sports certainly doesn't. In games, you have to play big or stay home. The Jays can't keep complaining they have small crowds but never put the effort into consistently spending. They spend a few years and then say..."see, we spent, and no one showed up!!" Yeah, because they still sucked. If you remember the beginning of the year with Ryan et. al, the fans were geeked up and everyone came out. Once the injuries piled up and the team decided it had reached its limit, it gave up. Were the fans supposed to keep coming out even though they were ****, again?

Just because they spent a coupe times and it didn't work out due to injuries doesn't give them the carte blanche to never spend on major free agents again because it's risky, does it?

I can complain my beat up Chevy doesn't beat a Porsche but there's not much to say. And Wilner parroting stuff like " well, what did you expect from a beat up Chevy" makes it even more agonizing. Please Rogers, spend some f*king money on players in the league right now, too.

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Toronto? My fave. In 2002, when it cost $1.60 Canadian to buy one U.S. dollar, the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $76.8 million ($123 million Canadian). This year, with the Canadian dollar now worth $1.04 U.S., the Blue Jays opened with a payroll of $78.6 million ($73.7 million).

So wait, who are the suckers here? The Blue Jays spent $123 million Canadian in 2002 and got "equalization payments" from other MLB teams and now spend $73.7 million on the squad? And want to whine about not competing with AL East behemoths? Please. They are owned by the largest cable conglomerate in Canada. As I've told Toronto baseball fans for years, whine to me about the AL East when your team's wealthy owners make a pretense at trying to "compete" in that division rather than keeping things profitable.

Believe me, I've seen Toronto's "five-year-plan" when it was touted back in 2002. After seven years, having acquired their stadium for a pittance ($30 million Canadian) they fired GM J.P. Ricciardi seven years into his "plan" and are now two years into the next one.

Read this the other day: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... wners.html

Dagger is right. There is really no excuse left for Rogers not to spend money this offseason. Of course, I think we all know better than to expect much from them.

Good catch Randle. I still remember Geoff Baker working for the star not too long ago.

I agree with him. Until MLB thinks about realignment. If Blue Jays wants to compete in AL East they have to spend money signing top prospects and free agents. Blue Jays have not made the playoffs in 17 years.

youreachiteach wrote:Wilner is already preparing callers for the bow out right now:

I just heard him say the Jays had no chance to sign a major free agent and that this major player would go back to their own teams or sign with the Yankees and Red Sox, regardless of whether they had a player at his position or not (In this case, it was Pujols). It also wouldn't matter whether we had the money or not....And Wilner parroting stuff like " well, what did you expect from a beat up Chevy" makes it even more agonizing. Please Rogers, spend some f*king money on players in the league right now, too.

He's right in one sense. Top free agents won't have the Jays on the radar. Why should they? Have we given any indication we're even ready to get in the bidding for the big bat or arm? It may well be that our first foray into the big time free agent hunt would come up empty, but you have to try. You want every agent to know you're deadly serious, not just doing a fakeout to look busy so you can your fans. (You know the fakeout, look busy when the boss is on your floor, shuffle some papers, look like you're making a phone call, etc... Same thing with free agency, there is the appearance of spending big and there is actually spending big - putting serious offers on paper that are top dollar.)

I've always argued that a big time free agent signing would cost us more than it would the Yankees or Phillies or Red Sox, but so be it. We're getting a currency discount. Once everyone understands you've got real folding money to burn, the tide will turn.

But if you find an excuse every year not to spend on major free agents, or try to at least, you will always be two years away from actually signing such a free agent when it's part of the real plan.

The problem is, when the media adopts Wilner's attitude - and remember who owns Wilner's station - then it lets ownership off the hook.

dagger wrote:

youreachiteach wrote:Wilner is already preparing callers for the bow out right now:

I just heard him say the Jays had no chance to sign a major free agent and that this major player would go back to their own teams or sign with the Yankees and Red Sox, regardless of whether they had a player at his position or not (In this case, it was Pujols). It also wouldn't matter whether we had the money or not....And Wilner parroting stuff like " well, what did you expect from a beat up Chevy" makes it even more agonizing. Please Rogers, spend some f*king money on players in the league right now, too.

He's right in one sense. Top free agents won't have the Jays on the radar. Why should they? Have we given any indication we're even ready to get in the bidding for the big bat or arm? It may well be that our first foray into the big time free agent hunt would come up empty, but you have to try. You want every agent to know you're deadly serious, not just doing a fakeout to look busy so you can your fans. (You know the fakeout, look busy when the boss is on your floor, shuffle some papers, look like you're making a phone call, etc... Same thing with free agency, there is the appearance of spending big and there is actually spending big - putting serious offers on paper that are top dollar.)

I've always argued that a big time free agent signing would cost us more than it would the Yankees or Phillies or Red Sox, but so be it. We're getting a currency discount. Once everyone understands you've got real folding money to burn, the tide will turn.

But if you find an excuse every year not to spend on major free agents, or try to at least, you will always be two years away from actually signing such a free agent when it's part of the real plan.

The problem is, when the media adopts Wilner's attitude - and remember who owns Wilner's station - then it lets ownership off the hook.

They don't want to come here because the competition is too fierce. Why face the pitching/batting in this division if you aren't going to get all the exposure of being on the Yankees/Sox. Heck I would go to Detroit and face the pitching staffs/lineups that the Indians/Royals/White Sox/Twins trot out anyday over the AL East.

Homer Jay wrote:

dagger wrote:

youreachiteach wrote:Wilner is already preparing callers for the bow out right now:

I just heard him say the Jays had no chance to sign a major free agent and that this major player would go back to their own teams or sign with the Yankees and Red Sox, regardless of whether they had a player at his position or not (In this case, it was Pujols). It also wouldn't matter whether we had the money or not....And Wilner parroting stuff like " well, what did you expect from a beat up Chevy" makes it even more agonizing. Please Rogers, spend some f*king money on players in the league right now, too.

He's right in one sense. Top free agents won't have the Jays on the radar. Why should they? Have we given any indication we're even ready to get in the bidding for the big bat or arm? It may well be that our first foray into the big time free agent hunt would come up empty, but you have to try. You want every agent to know you're deadly serious, not just doing a fakeout to look busy so you can your fans. (You know the fakeout, look busy when the boss is on your floor, shuffle some papers, look like you're making a phone call, etc... Same thing with free agency, there is the appearance of spending big and there is actually spending big - putting serious offers on paper that are top dollar.)

I've always argued that a big time free agent signing would cost us more than it would the Yankees or Phillies or Red Sox, but so be it. We're getting a currency discount. Once everyone understands you've got real folding money to burn, the tide will turn.

But if you find an excuse every year not to spend on major free agents, or try to at least, you will always be two years away from actually signing such a free agent when it's part of the real plan.

The problem is, when the media adopts Wilner's attitude - and remember who owns Wilner's station - then it lets ownership off the hook.

They don't want to come here because the competition is too fierce. Why face the pitching/batting in this division if you aren't going to get all the exposure of being on the Yankees/Sox. Heck I would go to Detroit and face the pitching staffs/lineups that the Indians/Royals/White Sox/Twins trot out anyday over the AL East.

I don't buy that. Put top dollar in front of guys and let's see who says no. If you don't try you don't get.

Scorpion King wrote:Good catch Randle. I still remember Geoff Baker working for the star not too long ago.

I agree with him. Until MLB thinks about realignment. If Blue Jays wants to compete in AL East they have to spend money signing top prospects and free agents. Blue Jays have not made the playoffs in 17 years.

Yes, Baker attacked Rogers then and he's apparently still doing it now. It's a pretty legitimate criticism, though.