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Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres

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Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#1 » by RocLaFamilia » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:31 am

There’s a week to go before the MLB trade deadline without waivers and, around baseball, talks for Padres’ reliever Heath Bell are heating up. According to ESPN.com and Fox Sports there is a lengthy list of teams that have shown interest in Bell that includes many of the usual suspects, the Cards, the Rangers, the Phillies, the Angels, the Braves, the Reds and, oh yes, the Blue Jays.

The Jays? Yes. The safest bet in baseball is that if there’s a major player being dangled that Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos has at least made preliminary inquiries to find out what it would take to acquire that player. Knowledge is power and Anthopoulos, heading into the trade stretch, knows not only what his own team wants and has available, but also the 29 other teams from prying phone calls to GMs


This Bell case is different than other test cases. There are so many reasons why a Bell deal makes sense for Anthopoulos. First of all, there is the Type A status attached to Bell, which means if the Jays were to offer him free agency at the end of the year and he signed elsewhere, Toronto would get two draft picks in the top 75 in next year’s June draft. There’s also the fact that Anthopoulos would have an exclusive signing window until 15 days after the World Series to try to ink him long-term


http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/ ... heath-bell
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#2 » by rarefind » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:35 am

So let me get this right, somehow we are going to outbid all these interested teams with an offer that is less than what his compensatory picks would be next season? Simply put, the Padres will just keep Bell if that is the case. If we make a great offer (which we would have to) the value of the players going out would be greater than the value of the picks we get.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#3 » by evilRyu » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:45 am

rarefind wrote:So let me get this right, somehow we are going to outbid all these interested teams with an offer that is less than what his compensatory picks would be next season? Simply put, the Padres will just keep Bell if that is the case. If we make a great offer (which we would have to) the value of the players going out would be greater than the value of the picks we get.

yeah that's a good point.

or the padres are selling high on Bell, as he has been great since becoming a Padre in the NL West, and will be 34 in a couple of months.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#4 » by Skin Blues » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:58 am

How does Griffin have a job? Seriously? That's about the absolute worst thing the Jays could do. No Heath Bell, please. We'd either a) be stuck with an overweight relief pitcher in the twilight of his career to a bloated FA contract, or b) get comp picks which pale in comparison to the already-developed talent we'd be giving up in return. Both of those are bad. Not to mention the increased competition he'd be facing coming from a weak division and the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. And we thought the BJ Ryan debacle was ugly...
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#5 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:59 am

Skin Blues wrote:How does Griffin have a job? Seriously? That's about the absolute worst thing the Jays could do. No Heath Bell, please. We'd either a) be stuck with an overweight relief pitcher in the twilight of his career to a bloated FA contract, or b) get comp picks which pale in comparison to the already-developed talent we'd be giving up in return. Both of those are bad. Not to mention the increased competition he'd be facing coming from a weak division and the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. And we thought the BJ Ryan debacle was ugly...


Can't really say I really agree with this. We need a closer, if you're worried about him being done next year, look at his stats.He also made the all-star game last 3 seasons(this year included). Sure his saves are down a bit right now, but the Padres are last place in there divsion giving him less oppurtunity for a save. There is also the fact that he he finished 8th in the national league in cy young voting, and also getting some votes for mvp last season.

As for part b) , if you're worried about a closer coming here to compete in a weak division, name a better closer than Bell that will cost less and is better than him that can compete?
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#6 » by LBJSeizedMyID » Tue Jul 26, 2011 11:17 am

rarefind wrote:So let me get this right, somehow we are going to outbid all these interested teams with an offer that is less than what his compensatory picks would be next season? Simply put, the Padres will just keep Bell if that is the case. If we make a great offer (which we would have to) the value of the players going out would be greater than the value of the picks we get.


Or the Padres value the Toronto Blue Jays farm system even more and have seen a couple prospects grow at a level or two and feel it's worth it. Just saying.

More worried about Bell's command numbers and growing groundball tendencies.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#7 » by dagger » Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:38 pm

I think there's a risk, like the Raptors and maybe the Leafs fan base, that we accept a "can't do" no risk argument where everyone is wedded to concepts like tanking, organic growth, etc., which are great stands to take in a salary cap world or the lowest part of a rebuildng cycle. It has a certain comforting logic to it. You get to follow drafts and draft picks instead of rationalizing how far the team is from real success.

It's a bit of a narcotic.

The Jays are reaching the point where there will either be risks taken, or we will remain a fourth place team that wins 81 games a season, give or take two or three. Any one trade may be unjustifiable. But don't get trapped into finding a rationale to oppose any and all trades. It's not like Texas is offering us Josh Hamilton for Corey Patterson. Any major trade or free agent signing may involve overpaying by at least your measure.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#8 » by Randle McMurphy » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:09 pm

Baseball fans, writers, and even organizations seem to have this fascination with the closer position that I'll never understand. They only pitch 60+ innings a season, yet get paid like above-average starters (who are obviously worth a lot more). And it's not like the best guys don't end up blowing several saves a year, anyway. So no, Richard Griffin, signing a closer long-term would be a stupid investment. The Jays should not waste their money like this. If they want to trade for Bell in order to gain picks when he leaves, I'm fine with that, but I'd hate to see him on this roster in 2012 and beyond.


BigLeagueChew wrote:As for part b) , if you're worried about a closer coming here to compete in a weak division, name a better closer than Bell that will cost less and is better than him that can compete?

Why not just develop a good reliever at no cost and put him into the closer role? It's certainly better than acquiring a big name in his mid 30s and going through the BJ Ryan situation again.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#9 » by youngLion » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:38 pm

Stoeten shat all over this idea.

So... great news for Jays fans! The club has a surplus of starters coming up through the organization, and one of those cheap young arms is bound to find himself at home at the back of the bullpen as the "bona fide closer" sooner or later, probably not long after it's freed of all of the veteran guys Alex Anthopoulos is trying to parlay into picks and more, younger, cheaper assets-- which could start as soon as this week!

I'm sure Griff's totally about to tell us that, right?

"Bell is that and the fact they would get to evaluate him up close and personal for two months is priceless. "

Gahhhh! Nope, he's just shovelling some kind of steaming load into our mouths and telling us its gravy. (Quick! Somebody alert Rob Ford!)
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#10 » by dagger » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:44 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:Why not just develop a good reliever at no cost and put him into the closer role? It's certainly better than acquiring a big name in his mid 30s and going through the BJ Ryan situation again.


Well, part of the problem is the Jays, like a goodly number of teams, have taken to drafting very young high velocity arms with the idea of making them into starters. There is a de facto assumption that some will end up as relievers, but this takes a year or two or three to sort out. In other words, it can taqke that long to separate the wheat from the chaff, with the chaff becoming bullpen prospects.

Unfortunately, this doesn't allow you to readily fill bullpen needs in a timely manner. No one is going to yank Molina or Alvarez out of their current roles and tell them to go develop a backdoor cut fastball/out pitch because in six months you'll be our closer.

Absent a program to develop relievers, you either have to sign or trade for them.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#11 » by Randle McMurphy » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:53 pm

Or you pick them up on the scrap heap as the Jays have been doing successfully for years (Downs, Camp, Tallet, Carlson), sign veteran guys on the cheap (Gregg, Rauch, Dotel), and use your extra/failed starters as relievers (Janssen, Rzep, Mills, Perez, Richmond, etc). The actual mistakes come when you sign relievers long-term (BJ Ryan) or trade players of value for relievers (Napoli for Francisco :cry: ).

There is nothing wrong with the Jays bullpen and no real need to spend money on this area.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#12 » by guvernator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:01 pm

bullpen is the last issue a team addresses that is trying to make the playoffs. Marginal utility of adding a closer to a .500 team is very little (you could even say that there is negative marginal utility since when it comes to bullpen arms, especially closers, the price is always higher than their value.)
Jays still have to address 2B, CF and atleast 1 top of the rotation starter. (assuming lawrie fills 3B)

So if AA is going to trade prospects, he better be doing so to address the above 3 problems.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#13 » by raptorforlife88 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:24 pm

There are much bigger everyday holes to cover before you decide you need a closer. 2B is a gaping hole of suck thanks to Aaron Hill. CF as well with Rajai best suited to be a fourth outfielder.

Those guys play everyday, and they can make the difference that means you don't play in as many one run games. Less one run games, means less potentially close saves for closers to blow. As Schad said in another thread, the Jays have been in 35 one run games, with better everyday players you won't find yourself in that situation in the first place.

I understand where Dagger is coming from about the need to take risks and spend money, but you do that on positions worth doing so for. If you can spend money on Kelly Johnson, you do that. If you can trade minor league pieces for Michael Bourn and sign him to a long term big money deal, you do that. Those two guys bring a lot more value than a mid 30's closer.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#14 » by dagger » Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:14 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:There is nothing wrong with the Jays bullpen.


I couldn't agree with you less. It sucks, and if this team aspires to better, it need a better bullpen. How it goes about doing it is the only thing up for debate as far as I am concerned.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#15 » by sonn » Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:25 pm

dagger wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:There is nothing wrong with the Jays bullpen.


I couldn't agree with you less. It sucks, and if this team aspires to better, it need a better bullpen. How it goes about doing it is the only thing up for debate as far as I am concerned.

They are middle of the pack as the stats show.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/sta ... /split/128
Spending a bunch of money on the bullpen is probably the stupidest move a GM can make.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#16 » by Brinbe » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:42 pm

sonn wrote:
dagger wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:There is nothing wrong with the Jays bullpen.


I couldn't agree with you less. It sucks, and if this team aspires to better, it need a better bullpen. How it goes about doing it is the only thing up for debate as far as I am concerned.

They are middle of the pack as the stats show.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/sta ... /split/128
Spending a bunch of money on the bullpen is probably the stupidest move a GM can make.

Yep, pretty much.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#17 » by Randle McMurphy » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:11 pm

dagger wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:There is nothing wrong with the Jays bullpen.


I couldn't agree with you less. It sucks, and if this team aspires to better, it need a better bullpen. How it goes about doing it is the only thing up for debate as far as I am concerned.

#1. It doesn't, it's pretty average. They have a 1.4 WAR (7th in the AL), 3.88 FIP (7th in the AL), and a 3.72 xFIP (3rd in the AL).

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos ... ason1=2011

#2. Even if it did suck, spending tons of money on relievers is not the way to manage a baseball team.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#18 » by WpgPage » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:47 am

Please find me a Veteran closer that is signed for big money and has been worth it..(Mo doesn't count) I encourage anyone to find one that was really worth the money.
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#19 » by Skin Blues » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:32 am

Mo isn't worth the money either, but the Yankees don't play with real money. Hell, their GM's name is "Cash-man".
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Re: Griffin: Jays should compete hard for Padres 

Post#20 » by hyper316 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:38 am

we need our own "cashman". please hire darren oliver as assistant GM.

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