RealGM

Okay, so we've brought up how much the Jays could/should spend as long as the money's there, to put it in their terms.

Thanks to Cot's spreadsheet here's where the Jays are currently sitting for 2012:



Non-arby eligible guys just get 0.5 because it's rounding up what they get to be safe.That's 42.4 million and doesn't account for Teahen. It's my personal opinion that unless EE gets dealt by the deadline, Teahen gets bought out or moved with a huge chunk going with him and that cost gets rolled into 2011 payroll, but we can keep him on the book for 5.5 here anyway, although if that happens it's probably only an extra 2.5 million over the 42.4 because they won't pick up EE's option (it's a 500k buyout). Regardless, all in that's a worst case scenario of:

47.9 million

So that leaves a bunch of arby guys and I took a brief perusal of this site
to randomly create numbers for the 6 arby guys on the above list:



So many guys avoid arbitration or there are long-term deals made instead so these are basically just (Please Use More Appropriate Word) guesses. I have zero way of knowing if I'm in the realm of possibility, but I looked for 2 comparables and tried to find something close. Anyway, that's another 20 million (hoping I'm too high and too low all over the place to the point it balances the total out) and takes our grand total up to:

67.9 million

Spots still open include 2B, an SP, a CP, a SU, and some bench action (back-up C, MI, LRP). The last three in brackets will be filled fairly cheap (something internal or vet min types, but let's say 4.5 to know it's safe). With 4 important slots to fill (and no talk of upgrading the lineup beyond Hill either) we've got a total of:

72.4 million

So 100 million payroll (which to me should be the low end if Rogers' talk about the money being there is true) still leaves 27.6 million to fill a starting pitcher, second base, and two relief spots (preferably the premium spots). To do it the way we might prefer that'd cost closer to 35-40 million, but 28 ain't nothing to sneeze at.

Now finding targets worth the money, especially in FA, is always harder than one would hope (eg. Great, I have 7-8 mil for a 2B and the only good starter available is asking for 12 and he's nowhere near worth it, but someone else will pay it so what should a GM do then?). I'm more inclined to spend some, or even a lot, of our recently built up minor league depth to acquire guys like Jimenez (not personally advocating Jimenez but he's the easy example 'cause he's being discussed a lot and has a very manageable deal) with reasonable contracts than overpay in FA. It probably amounts to the same thing since you have to make up the difference in IFA or overslot and that may not be possible anymore, but free agency scares the bejesus out of me, especially starting pitching.

Thoughts? Are my numbers wrong? Where would you spend the money? I did this 'cause I can see we're going to be talking about what to do in the near future a lot and it would be best to have some easy reference to payroll numbers.

If there was a closer with a good track record (i.e. consistent) available I would spend some big dollars there for 2-3 years. I'm not convinced another starting pitcher is needed to compete, but acquiring a sub-4 ERA 200 IP guy would certainly improve the odds.

Offensively I think the team is pretty much set. I'm fine going into next season with Thames at DH and Encarnacion as a bench power bat. Davis is a great weapon to have off the bench late game. 2B is really the only issue, and an upgrade at 2B shouldn't cost very much - in fact, it may cost less than what we're currently paying Hill.

Unlike most of our fellow posters, I think this team is very close to contending with this roster next year without any further external additoins. Then again, I thought they had a chance to overtake the Yankees this year

I would think Rajai would be moved this offseason, either for a prospect or possibly a bullpen arm.

If Rogers is ready to spend, the Jays could certainly compete next year.

Half the teams in the league have a payroll above $100M, so you'd hope that the Jays would at least spend that much in 2012. If they can really get up to $120-140M as Beeston has been saying, now might be the time to put their money where their mouth is. You certainly won't find a better, more talented, cost-controlled group than the Jays have right now.

I still think the team could use one more elite bat (Fielder?), a better-than-average 2B (Johnson?), and another SP (Wilson, Darvish?) to really contend with the Yankees and Red Sox. If they fill all three of those holes with quality players, you might even have the best team in baseball. I'm not at all worried about relievers, nor do I think AA will spend any significant money in that area judging by his comments about relief pitching over the last year.

The Jays may be good enough to make the playoffs as they are right now (especially if another wildcard spot is added), but why chance it? If you can supplement your great nucleus of players with a few FA signings like the Red Sox do and all it costs is money, you've got to get it done.

I would definitely speed up the process with Bautisa becoming the best hitter in the majors, I would hate to waste his stellar seasons on a rebuild

Randle McMurphy wrote:Half the teams in the league have a payroll above $100M, so you'd hope that the Jays would at least spend that much in 2012. If they can really get up to $120-140M as Beeston has been saying, now might be the time to put their money where their mouth is. You certainly won't find a better, more talented, cost-controlled group than the Jays have right now.

I still think the team could use one more elite bat (Fielder?), a better-than-average 2B (Johnson?), and another SP (Wilson, Darvish?) to really contend with the Yankees and Red Sox. If they fill all three of those holes with quality players, you might even have the best team in baseball. I'm not at all worried about relievers, nor do I think AA will spend any significant money in that area judging by his comments about relief pitching over the last year.

The Jays may be good enough to make the playoffs as they are right now (especially if another wildcard spot is added), but why chance it? If you can supplement your great nucleus of players with a few FA signings like the Red Sox do and all it costs is money, you've got to get it done.

We're in the same general ballpark, although all the individual names you mentioned have prices that may get too high for me to want anymore.

My numbers were meant to show there's close to 30 million to spend in the off-season factoring worst case budgeting and allowing for the payroll to grow another 20-30 million over the next couple years as young guys need new deals ('cause 120-130 is my version of the money being there for real too, but I'll allow that throwing 50 million in payroll onto a young team is a good way to end up with salary problems in a couple years). Also, it's not hard to see an extra 5 million just with cheaper bench players (internal development instead of outside FAs) and only one of EE/Teahen staying.

Personally, my target is one more SP before anything else. I know we've got a pretty good pipeline, but I'll take a 200 IP, sub 4.00 ERA for this Jays team over even a guy like Fielder. We're not top 3 (NYY, BOS, TEX) good offensively, but we're already right there with everybody else and IMO a vet quality SP that I could bank beside Romero would be my first priority. The rest has lots of potential, but are still such volatile commodities, that's where I'd go shopping first.

As for 2B, I'd be happy with anyone capable of hitting a decent 9th with a good glove. I wouldn't turn down a top of the order super high OBP guy, but I just don't see that guy out there (it's not K.Johnson anyway). That's a spot I'd actually look to save some money for now.

Randle McMurphy wrote:Half the teams in the league have a payroll above $100M, so you'd hope that the Jays would at least spend that much in 2012. If they can really get up to $120-140M as Beeston has been saying, now might be the time to put their money where their mouth is. You certainly won't find a better, more talented, cost-controlled group than the Jays have right now.

I still think the team could use one more elite bat (Fielder?), a better-than-average 2B (Johnson?), and another SP (Wilson, Darvish?) to really contend with the Yankees and Red Sox. If they fill all three of those holes with quality players, you might even have the best team in baseball. I'm not at all worried about relievers, nor do I think AA will spend any significant money in that area judging by his comments about relief pitching over the last year.

The Jays may be good enough to make the playoffs as they are right now (especially if another wildcard spot is added), but why chance it? If you can supplement your great nucleus of players with a few FA signings like the Red Sox do and all it costs is money, you've got to get it done.

Yeah, if they don't go all-in this off-season, I'll have a hard time believing they ever will.

Whatever they spend in the off-season I hope they go the route where they get at least 1, hopefully 2 very good-elite hitter/pitcher and not spread out the money towards average players. For example if they only decide to spend 25-30mil (which would be quite sad) Id rather throw all of it at fielder than get an average 2nd baseman + good closer or w/e. I dont want another burnett/ryan situation.

Also if they spend anything significant on a closer they'd better have already invested some serious cash for a bat + SP, to me standing pat everywhere else and wasting significant resources on a reliever is ridiculous and not an option.

I think the biggest concern is SP, and you can get a lot done with that kinda coin. Both Mark Buehrle and CJ Wilson are coming up in free agency, and CJ Wilson especially would be a good grab as it also hurts another potential playoff team.

The more I think about it, the more I want to trade some prospects for Ubaldo (and hope AA does). Looking at our roster, there isn't much room for anyone to break in over the next 2-3 years, other than our absolute top guys (Gose / D'Arnaud). We have a pretty big window before we need prospects to come in for the current crop, so let's spend some prospects who are close (and thus won't have much of a shot over the next few years) and go get someone we can use.

Even if we keep Hill, a batting order of Yunel/Rasmus/JBau/Lind/Lawrie/Thames/JPA/Snider/Hill with E5 and Davis off the bench is still one of the better offensive teams in baseball. They already were one of the better offensive teams in baseball and we've suffered most of the year without Rasmus or Lawrie, and with only partial years from Thames and Snider. And how long until a spot opens up in that youth movement?

If we're trotting out a rotation of Ubaldo/Romero/Morrow/FA/Prospect and that FA is someone like CJ Wilson, we'll also have one of the better overall pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe not star power wise, but certainly depth wise. And we can do that and keep payroll room for signing/trading for a 2B when a good one becomes available (as opposed to taking and paying for whatever is available this year), and giving promotions to the youth as they hit free agency.

Yeah, if they're going to spend 25MM + next year then i hope it's not on a couple good players.. I want the best! I'd like to see them sign CC, Fielder or Pujols.

While I don't think Ubaldo will be any better than Romero in the AL East, he's still a very good pitcher and trading for him makes a ton of sense right now. The Jays certainly have the prospects to make that kind of deal happen, too. I'm thinking it would have to start with Kyle Drabek.

I also agree that pitching is the greater need at the moment. The reason I'd like to see them sign a guy like Fielder, though, is that you just can't rely much on either Thames and Snider in 2012. Even if they both hit well over the last two months (or in Thames' case, keeps hitting), the potential for a falloff next year is still there. With Fielder, you're guaranteed elite production and you would create the most dynamic offensive lineup in the game.

jrsmith wrote:Also if they spend anything significant on a closer they'd better have already invested some serious cash for a bat + SP, to me standing pat everywhere else and wasting significant resources on a reliever is ridiculous and not an option.

I don't think we'll have to worry about that. AA was on the radio the other day talking about how giving relievers long-term deals is a bad idea.

We should target some free agent shortstops to consider moving them to 2nd base with us next year.

Scutaro as our 9th batter @ 2nd base would be really interesting, of course the red sox would have to decline his option for next year first.

BigLeagueChew wrote:We should target some free agent shortstops to consider moving them to 2nd base with us next year.

Scutaro as our 9th batter @ 2nd base would be really interesting, of course the red sox would have to decline his option for next year first.

I wouldn't be opposed to him as a cheap stopgap. It would definitely allow them to spend their money elsewhere on a starter and big bat.

Scutaro is actually a really good option I hadn't considered. He's putting up a .700 OPS which for second base is pretty good. If he can play a solid second base day in, day out then I wouldn't hesitate to give him a 2 year deal at say $6-8MM total. There just don't seem to be many young, high upside second baggers available, and besides, you don't want too many guys in your lineup being young and inexperienced.

I have to believe that they'd be willing to run the payroll up over $110m this off-season, not just because I want them to as a fan, but because it's the right decision to make financially. If the playoffs expand as expected, we have a golden opportunity to make a run which would help to rebuild the fan-base...we're up 4,000 fans/game from last year (which was terrible even by our standards), but if we can average 33k+ a night and increased viewership on RSN, an extra $30m investment would be recouped pretty easily.

Scutaro could definitely be an option if the Jays plan to target one or two of the more high profile free agents at other positions.

It's really too bad that more quality free agent SP aren't available. 2013 looks to have a ton of solid pitchers: Weaver, Hamels, Cain, Marcum, Greinke, A. Sanchez, Liriano, J. Sanchez

Schadenfreude wrote:I have to believe that they'd be willing to run the payroll up over $110m this off-season, not just because I want them to as a fan, but because it's the right decision to make financially. If the playoffs expand as expected, we have a golden opportunity to make a run which would help to rebuild the fan-base...we're up 4,000 fans/game from last year (which was terrible even by our standards), but if we can average 33k+ a night and increased viewership on RSN, an extra $30m investment would be recouped pretty easily.

Unless they have decided to blow their wad on IFA's and MLB draft player signings... it will be interesting to see where they place their priorities in the next few months.

Don't we owe Teahan 5.5 million for next year as well?

[u][/u]


i think an addition of prince fielder would make this team amazing especially if there is another wild card spot




davis
rasmus
batista
fielder
lind
lawrie
snider
escobar


sounds pretty damn good

augustine wrote:Don't we owe Teahan 5.5 million for next year as well?

Right now we do however we can still trade him through the waiver trade deadline next month or dfa him. I wouldn't want his 5 million salary to hold us back from landing any free agents this off season.