RealGM

well he is likely the most hyped up Blue Jays prospect to come up with the team in many years.... everyone has pegged him as the long term corner stone type to play 3B for a while. Also it would be the best possible thing for the JAYS to have a Canadian player reach the status of a superstar in Canada.

but what if he fails.... not a total bust, but what if he is not the corner stone we all invision? Travis Snider was once a top prospect in all of baseball and very hyped up also, and today his future is in doubt............. but how much would a fail be Lawrie effect the Jays

im not taking about his debut, or even this season... i mean long term as a JAY

Im hoping he succeeds.... looks like a blue chip prospect. maybe the franchise not too long from now

but just a question... what if he fails?

or is that not an option

The world will end. Or the team will move on with its other players as it always has whenever a prospect has busted.

I'm not sure which is more likely.

Our farm system is ridiculous, so there aren't many implications if he fails. It would suck, but its not like this is our one franchise hope.

I don't see him as a franchise player to begin with. If he can be a core above-average 5/6 type in the lineup with average defense at 3rd or even moving into OF a couple years down the road I'll say he achieved all his potential.

And if he totally flops I don't see it being a major disruption to the franchise. It won't bode well for 2012/2013 competing, but he's still just a guy.

satyr9 wrote:I don't see him as a franchise player to begin with. If he can be a core above-average 5/6 type in the lineup with average defense at 3rd or even moving into OF a couple years down the road I'll say he achieved all his potential.

And if he totally flops I don't see it being a major disruption to the franchise. It won't bode well for 2012/2013 competing, but he's still just a guy.

Then you'd be lying.

It's one thing to expect that, it's another to call it his absolute ceiling.

Now, I'm not saying that I expect him to reach it, but rather that his ceiling is huge.

given the huge fan of Snider that you are, it figures that you would ask this. Ask yourself what we gave up for him, and you'll have your answer. It only goes that far imo.

If he fails, I'm gonna call him "Laurie".

CanadaB-Ball wrote:

satyr9 wrote:I don't see him as a franchise player to begin with. If he can be a core above-average 5/6 type in the lineup with average defense at 3rd or even moving into OF a couple years down the road I'll say he achieved all his potential.

And if he totally flops I don't see it being a major disruption to the franchise. It won't bode well for 2012/2013 competing, but he's still just a guy.

Then you'd be lying.

It's one thing to expect that, it's another to call it his absolute ceiling.

Now, I'm not saying that I expect him to reach it, but rather that his ceiling is huge.

Okay, absolute maximum ceiling is higher than I listed, but you could say that about almost any B+ or better prospect ever (like Jose Bautista for instance), but he's not an Arod/Griffey type prospect and never was. I've never seen the draftniks and scouts talk about him as more than a 25/30HR type and I'm not even sure where the extra hype is coming from other than the Canadian angle.

If his ceiling is that of Ryan Braun with the bat (and the ability to stay at 3rd base), that would be quite the player.

satyr9 wrote:

CanadaB-Ball wrote:

satyr9 wrote:I don't see him as a franchise player to begin with. If he can be a core above-average 5/6 type in the lineup with average defense at 3rd or even moving into OF a couple years down the road I'll say he achieved all his potential.

And if he totally flops I don't see it being a major disruption to the franchise. It won't bode well for 2012/2013 competing, but he's still just a guy.

Then you'd be lying.

It's one thing to expect that, it's another to call it his absolute ceiling.

Now, I'm not saying that I expect him to reach it, but rather that his ceiling is huge.

Okay, absolute maximum ceiling is higher than I listed, but you could say that about almost any B+ or better prospect ever (like Jose Bautista for instance), but he's not an Arod/Griffey type prospect and never was. I've never seen the draftniks and scouts talk about him as more than a 25/30HR type and I'm not even sure where the extra hype is coming from other than the Canadian angle.

Well, after John Sickels scouted him earlier this year, he called him a definite A prospect. So, he's not "just" a B+ prospect.

Nonetheless, I understand (and agree with) the point. All I was saying is that Lawrie absolute ceiling was higher than you previously proclaimed it to be.

satyr9 wrote:but he's not an Arod/Griffey type prospect and never was.

Is this a serious comment? You mean to tell me that he's not a GOAT caliber prospect? Is that what your definition of a "franchise player" is? A Ken Griffey Jr? LMAO.

Why put the cart before the horse? This is turning in to the Raptors board more and more everyday. That's NOT a good thing.

Mike Schmidt or bust.

ahollz wrote:This is turning in to the Raptors board more and more everyday. That's NOT a good thing.

+1

satyr9 wrote:Okay, absolute maximum ceiling is higher than I listed, but you could say that about almost any B+ or better prospect ever (like Jose Bautista for instance), but he's not an Arod/Griffey type prospect and never was. I've never seen the draftniks and scouts talk about him as more than a 25/30HR type and I'm not even sure where the extra hype is coming from other than the Canadian angle.

John Sickels, as reputable an independent voice as any, called him a superstar-in-waiting earlier in the year, and reiterated yesterday that he believes that he'll be an offensive star.

Lawrie's numbers run through Minor League Equivalency calculator

282/326/505/831

I'd be extremely happy with that line for a couple of years until he fully matures. That's basically Ryan Zimmerman without the elite defence, even if those numbers numbers are his ceiling you gotta be pretty satisfied.

Avenger wrote:Lawrie's numbers run through Minor League Equivalency calculator

282/326/505/831

I'd be extremely happy with that line for a couple of years until he fully matures. That's basically Ryan Zimmerman without the elite defence, even if those numbers numbers are his ceiling you gotta be pretty satisfied.

I'm not sure if I'd be satisfied with that as his ceiling. Those are pretty good numbers, but it's still kind of average at 3rd base.

We need .900 + OPS from at least one of the infield corners. Boston has Youkilis/Gonzalez and New York has A-Rod/Teixeira. They all have career .900 OPS+ I think.

Anyways, I'm not expecting Lawrie to come in and be a star right away, but hopefully he gets there eventually.

If he fails we've still got Kevin Ahrens

too lazy to green font

then again, Ahrens is still pretty young

Either the franchise folds, or we have an apocalypse. Depends on the degree of "bust" he is.

david wright would be cool.