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Posted: **Mon Aug 8, 2011 10:21 pm**

Dave Gershman tweets that, while he's still waiting for the official press release, "it looks like Henderson Alvarez will be called up" to start on Friday against the Angels.

...

Here's what Keith Law had to say about him after watching him at the Futures Game during the All-Star break:

"He was 93-97. The breaking ball is coming. It's a fringy pitch right now, but it's in there. We know he's got a good changeup. He keeps the ball down, he gets a lot of ground balls-- I'm just not sure what he is. I know he's a starter, I know he's a good starter, but I don't know if he's a one, a two, or a three-- but he's something. He's not that far off-- it's really about the development of the breaking ball. If the breaking ball comes on to the point where it's just a usable pitch-- just an average Major League curve ball-- plus changeup, good velocity, gets a lot of ground balls-- that's a big league starter. And it's almost there. It's just so close, I'm sure it's a little bit frustrating for the Jays to see him. 'Man, that one night that curveball's there, we can probably run this guy right up to the big leagues,' because everything else is where you want it to be."

Posted: **Mon Aug 8, 2011 10:29 pm**

Excellent.

Definitely going to have to catch that game. I hope he's ready and not being rushed. He's probably the best pitching prospect outside of the short season kiddies.

Posted: **Mon Aug 8, 2011 10:37 pm**

I think Jays can maximize his value as a starter in the MLB and from what he has shown in the minors since he was 18 years old (21 now) he has earned it.

However, there is also talk that if he fails, he is the a closer candidate.... likely the best candidate in the Jays system. He can reach 99mph and be very dominant.

then again, Im hoping he can be a starter

Posted: **Mon Aug 8, 2011 11:43 pm**

number15 wrote:I think Jays can maximize his value as a starter in the MLB and from what he has shown in the minors since he was 18 years old (21 now) he has earned it.

However, there is also talk that if he fails, he is the a closer candidate.... likely the best candidate in the Jays system. He can reach 99mph and be very dominant.

then again, Im hoping he can be a starter

Same here. With the amount of potential pitching prospects expected to be apart of our ballclub in the near future, if he does fail as a starter, he'll be a very dominant closer which is something our ballclub's been lacking for years.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 12:06 am**

Send him straight to the pen like the Braves did with Kimbrel.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 12:20 am**

He doesn't really have a strike out pitch that a typical bullpen ace would usually have. Or if he has developed them some, it hasn't shown in his strike out totals. If he has a plus fastball and plus change up and can show his breaking stuff (whatever he has) from time to time, it's possible for him to succeed as a starter - Ricky can do it. I guess I just don't even want to think about him in the bullpen.

Anyways, Excited.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 12:21 am**

His promotion is confirmed.

Two 21-year olds added in one week. Wow.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 12:28 am**

21 year old starter. Sure he throws the ball really hard, but isn't it way to early ?

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 1:05 am**

JoeyBats wrote:21 year old starter. Sure he throws the ball really hard, but isn't it way to early ?

that's my initial reaction too.. it's not even a September callup either.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 1:40 am**

Here is a writeup from Law following seeing him at the Futures Game.

"He was 93-97. The breaking ball is coming. It's a fringy pitch right now, but it's in there. We know he's got a good changeup. He keeps the ball down, he gets a lot of ground balls-- I'm just not sure what he is. I know he's a starter, I know he's a good starter, but I don't know if he's a one, a two, or a three-- but he's something. He's not that far off-- it's really about the development of the breaking ball. If the breaking ball comes on to the point where it's just a usable pitch-- just an average Major League curve ball-- plus changeup, good velocity, gets a lot of ground balls-- that's a big league starter. And it's almost there. It's just so close, I'm sure it's a little bit frustrating for the Jays to see him. 'Man, that one night that curveball's there, we can probably run this guy right up to the big leagues,' because everything else is where you want it to be."

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 1:47 am**

What i'm scared of is he pitches really well this season, and horrible next year. See what happened to Kyle ?

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 1:51 am**

Should be fun to watch him get an opportunity.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 2:37 am**

Kid Canada wrote:Send him straight to the pen like the Braves did with Kimbrel.

Really different situation.

Kimbrel is incapable of starting. He's averaged like 15 K and 5 BB per 9 IP in the minors and now into the majors. That's too many pitches per innings, especially for a 5'11" dude if size has a bearing on workload. He's a prototypical closer and has always been treated as such.

Alvarez is nothing like him. 6.6 K and 1.7 BB per 9 IP is more of an innings eater type (for lack of a better term). If he can start successfully, he's a lot more valuable there.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 2:39 am**

I know this is silly...but let's just say Alvarez could keep his MLB performance consistent with AA numbers. Consider the comparison below:

ERA/FIP/WHIP - - K9/BB9/HR9 - - Fastball speed

Alvarez: 2.86/3.45/1.11 - - 6.75/1.74/0.72 - - 93-97
---------- 2.88/3.42/1.05 - - 6.85/2.19/0.75 - - ± 95

The second line belongs to Alexi Ogando.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 2:59 am**

number15 wrote:I think Jays can maximize his value as a starter in the MLB and from what he has shown in the minors since he was 18 years old (21 now) he has earned it.

However, there is also talk that if he fails, he is the a closer candidate.... likely the best candidate in the Jays system. He can reach 99mph and be very dominant.

then again, Im hoping he can be a starter

Jays will keep him starting this year regardless. Whether that means sending him back down, they will try to get his innings up as fast as they can. They need to push up his innings for next years AAA (or possibly MLB) season.

Club rule is a pitchers max innings to be 120% of what they were last year.
His max innings are in the ballpark of 134.
Based on his pace in the minor leagues and the 120% cap he can go 6 starts. (5.86667 innings a game)

He may one day be converted into a closer but don't count on it anytime soon.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 5:09 am**

I just realized what Alvarez's peripherals in New Hampshire reminded me of. :lol:

Jesse Litsch as a 21 year old in AA: 7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
Henderson Alvarez as a 21 year old in AA: 6.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 6:04 am**

Alvarez's K/9 rate has gone up considerably over his last 7-9 starts(almost at 9K/9), he could have just ran into a bunch of awful lineups or it could be statistical variance but it could also be a sign of progress on his curveball like Keith Law was speculating.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 1:54 pm**

Nice, already got tix for that game, this is just a great bonus.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 6:05 pm**

According to Wilner, Alvarez will start tomorrow !

Ledezma has been optioned back to LV.

Posted: **Tue Aug 9, 2011 6:15 pm**

Start him friday! not tomorrow please!

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