Prince Fielder will be a BUST (opinion)

[number15]

The guy likely likely demand a 8 year, $200 million deal.... and likely will get it

people are going nuts at the potential of landing such a huge star at reasonably young age. Not just JAYS fans but alot of MLB teams.

but heres my opinion. They guy spells long term BUST all over to me. Fielder will be a beast in the early contract...... for maybe 3-4 seasons... then he will NOT be worth the rest of the money owed to him. At best he might end up a full time DH making the salary of a franchise player, and at worst, it will be like the Vernon Wells saga all over again.

His body type likely cant take all the pains long term. Is that the type of guy you'd want to invest the future in? This has been written by reporters alot over the years.

Signing this guy to such a deal, is a HUGE risk.

[Dr Positivity]

I trust him, his walk rate/eye and peripherals and the fact that he's been doing this for 5 years makes me fairly certain he'll hold up

[Schad]

but heres my opinion. They guy spells long term BUST all over to me. Fielder will be a beast in the early contract...... for maybe 3-4 seasons... then he will NOT be worth the rest of the money owed to him.

What you're describing here is not a bust. If we get three or four 5 WAR seasons out of Fielder before he regresses, and those seasons get us a playoff berth or two, it will have been worth the money.

[Weems]

Sorta. He has terrific contact skills for a guy his size, though. He'll always have the power and ability to walk also. I don't think it'll be all that ugly near the end.

[number15]

What you're describing here is not a bust. If we get three or four 5 WAR seasons out of Fielder before he regresses, and those seasons get us a playoff berth or two, it will have been worth the money.

Thats true, I mean after 19 seasons, it would be worth even 1 trip to the playoffs.

long term though, u gotta admit it a HUGE risk. Obviously all big signing of this proportions are risky, but this seams very likely.

you know much the Wells contract tied down the JAYS. Well this would very possibly end like that... JAYS would contend for 2-3 seasons (assuming we compete just he arrives), and then back to the drawing board all over again

[Schad]

you know much the Wells contract tied down the JAYS. Well this would very possibly end like that... JAYS would contend for 2-3 seasons (assuming we compete just he arrives), and then back to the drawing board all over again

That's the case for most teams, and with Bautista's window closing in 3-4 years, will almost certainly be the case with us. And there's the thing: if we manage to put together a couple seasons where we make the playoffs, the increased revenues will more than cover Fielder's deal.

[ItsDanger]

Not interested at that price tag.

[darth_federer]

We can afford the deal. Rogers doesnt have a penny committed to anyone beyond 2014 and they only have 40 million in commitments for next year. Really money shouldnt be our worry at all. Beeston said that we would eventually have a 140-150 million dollar payroll.

[mikero]

Signing anyone to a big contract is a risk. But that's the price to pay if you want to contend.

The contract will likely be huge, but in my opinion, Fielder won't bust. He's had 5 very good offensive seasons in a row (unlike Wells who seems to alternate between good and bad), consistent peripherals (K, BB, and contact rate), a good eye at the plate, and no injury history. And looking at his swing, he does an excellent job of shifting his weight and using his hips to generate power, which makes one think he could be productive well into his 30's.

[Geddy]

I think the OP is implying that we go for Pujols instead.

[Strav]

him moving to the AL means splitting time at DH and 1B as he ages. Far less wear and tear so I don't think that's a concern. And yes, he's worth that kind of money.

[SharoneWright]

him moving to the AL means splitting time at DH and 1B as he ages. Far less wear and tear so I don't think that's a concern. And yes, he's worth that kind of money.

no chance. its still a team game. too expensive. too rotund.

sign an above average 2B and get a #2/3 starter. that's a balanced squad. Lind@1B and EE@DH next year is more than sufficient.

Esco
Rasmus
Bau
Lind
Lawrie
Snider
EE
New 2B
JPA

[CapeCrusader]

With Fielder, we already know he's a star player and it won't be a Vernon situation.

[SharoneWright]

With Fielder, we already know he's a star player and it won't be a Vernon situation.

its a very big bet. and completely gratuitous.

I think you can get your 5WAR much more efficiently by upgrading at 2B and with another quality starter - for less $ and way less term. jmho.

[darth_federer]

I think youre right Sharone. I think AA will try to trade for someone ala Dan Uggla last offseason. I cant see him going after Fielder and Pujols.

[sule]

I'd rather we go for signing the big guns like Fielder and strike out than to just rely on our current crop.

Not everyone of these players will pan out, and with a consistently stocked farm system, if one of them fails, we can bring someone else up who we control for years on a cheap contract, so it's not like we'll end up having to pay Fielder plus a bunch of bums 5-6 years from now.

I just wish we could've held Halladay longer. Imagine having a team in 2012 with Rasmus, Lind, Bautista, Fielder, Lawrie, in the batting order, and Halladay and Romero at the front of the rotation. How can that team not be contenders in the AL East?

[SharoneWright]

^
I heard tell of a teacher-couple a few years ago who took all their pension money and put it in Nortel - hot stock and analysts agreed. Now one of them works at Blockbuster

I'm just saying the Jays are finally in a position where they don't need to reach. Let's not let machismo get in the way of a very sound plan. Maybe Fielder is the guy. But we've already upgraded (with youth!) at 2, maybe 3, positions this year alone (CF/3B/(C))- and hopefully next year at 2B too. Not a bad idea to keep some (lots) of powder dry. Remember Gillick added guys like Henderson and Cone as late season/short-term additions to put them over the top. Its another way to go....

[Schad]

him moving to the AL means splitting time at DH and 1B as he ages. Far less wear and tear so I don't think that's a concern. And yes, he's worth that kind of money.

no chance. its still a team game. too expensive. too rotund.

sign an above average 2B and get a #2/3 starter. that's a balanced squad. Lind@1B and EE@DH next year is more than sufficient.

Esco
Rasmus
Bau
Lind
Lawrie
Snider
EE
New 2B
JPA

Lind and EE aren't anywhere near sufficient if we want to compete. That's a great team if the goal is to win 85 games and be out of the playoff race by the first week of September.

[number15]

I recently read on realgm.com that Pujols after this season will hurt his value as a FA. He will still get paid big, but not what he wanted. That 30 million per, he wanted is out of the question. Infact even his own team Cardinals would likely lower their original offer of 7 years and 200 million....................... Fielder is likely looking at 8 years and 200 million

would you rather have Fielder at 200 million in 8 years..... or snap up Pujols by giving him the 200 million of 7, which Cardinals are nervous to offer now possibly?

[SharoneWright]

him moving to the AL means splitting time at DH and 1B as he ages. Far less wear and tear so I don't think that's a concern. And yes, he's worth that kind of money.

no chance. its still a team game. too expensive. too rotund.

sign an above average 2B and get a #2/3 starter. that's a balanced squad. Lind@1B and EE@DH next year is more than sufficient.

Esco
Rasmus
Bau
Lind
Lawrie
Snider
EE
New 2B
JPA

Lind and EE aren't anywhere near sufficient if we want to compete. That's a great team if the goal is to win 85 games and be out of the playoff race by the first week of September.

Well, you're more familiar with stats than me, and so I guess I'm forced to defer. But I think that's quite formulaic. The Cards will miss this year with Pujols. Why? Well he started very cold, and going forward he's probably already on the downswing. Lucky for them, they don't have 5 more years on a contract. You might say they'd be lucky to have him for 5 years at 120 MiL..... And I fully recognize Lind remains a potential weak-link. But you don't need to look past last year's Giants to see a team without a 25MIL bat who can win it all. Heck, the Jays won back to back with Joe frickin Carter hitting cleanup. It was because of WAMCO and more ie. 'team'). I vote for balance. jmho