RealGM

AA was on today around 11:40am with Jeff Blair. Here are some highlights of what he said;

Began talking about the winter meetings starting Monday in Dallas

- AA says they are not as exciting as it sounds, you are there morning to night in a hotel suite with your staff.
- He would rather just get on the phone and ask teams.
- Does think it's good thought to get other GM's motivated to do something
- He feels he gets more done before the meetings.
- the group he goes with is small
- He would always bring LaClava...LaClava is the clear cut #2 in organization behind him
- There are always certain people/teams you would rather deal with
- Regarding the process of posting for japanese FA, he feels it's not most effective way of doing things for mlb teams but it works well for other side as they can't trade players here, so the only thing they can get is money in return for a player
- He is exploring both trades and spending money on a FA to fill holes
- Says it's always easier to spend the money
- His preferred route is the trade market
- Always looking to upgrade on base percentage and looking for those type of guys, definitely a focus
- will look at FA market for a back up for JP. Will look for the right fit but feels JP can easily play 130+ games this year
- Blair said that he heard Farrell say that D'Arnaud should be ready for Spring Training but the team would like him in AAA for the year, AA didn't comment either way about D'Arnaud

thanks mgd

Here's the link.


http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content ... 0751_12684

Great summary, mgd. AA didn't say much substantively, nor could he, and Blair respected that. But still, listening to Alex talk about the biz is amazing. I'm sure many here may think that we could be GMs. Bill Simmons famously wants to be a GM of an NBA team. But AA is just another class of human being. I, for example, would be huge downgrade from him.

Just to fill in a few spots:

Blair was basically asking whether AA shared Beeston's stated distaste for the posting process. AA didn't really address that, sidestepping the issue by being understanding for the Japanese ballclub's position. He didn't say "yeah, we hate it, we would never participate in it." He said it comes down the Bosox believing that Dice-K is worth $100 mill. Hmm.

Acquiring by FA is easier, because you hate to give up valuable assets in a trade that could make you look bad (Napoli?). But it's hard to get value when paying full FA price for a player.

Re back-up catcher, he noted that there was a comfort level with JPA going into next season, so they weren't necessarily looking for another Molina-type who could step in if JPA faltered.

tecumseh18 wrote:
Acquiring by FA is easier, because you hate to give up valuable assets in a trade that could make you look bad (Napoli?). But it's hard to get value when paying full FA price for a player.

Well that's certainly a good definition of Catch 22.

dagger wrote:

tecumseh18 wrote:
Acquiring by FA is easier, because you hate to give up valuable assets in a trade that could make you look bad (Napoli?). But it's hard to get value when paying full FA price for a player.

Well that's certainly a good definition of Catch 22.

But it's not really a catch-22 at all, just GMs having a smidgeon of logic. FA's are over-priced compared to non-FA salaries because acquiring players in trade costs assets. When I try to trade for a player the cost has to be worth it in both salary for the new player and the cost of developing/acquiring the assets that I trade for him. Every GM knows this so when offering a contract to a FA they are willing to include some or all of the other costs that would otherwise be associated with acquiring a player into the salary. That's why players love free agency; they finally see some of their trade value reflected directly in their own, rather than a team's, pocketbook. If this weren't true it would be a massive market inefficiency and FA would always be the best route to acquiring any player, but it's pretty clear it almost never is. Mostly it's because teams tend to overvalue their own assets and undervalue the cold hard cash in comparison to their developing players. The easiest way to see this at work is how compensation types alter an FA's fortunes. I

The teams who can benefit from FA are the ones with the deepest pockets because their dollar to talent threshold is lowest. If gaining a 2 WAR player costs 8 million in salary and assets for example, then a team trying to make the playoffs (aiming to win 100 games that season) needs to be at a 200 million payroll for it to be efficient as a straight FA acquisition. But getting that 8 million in value through assets and salary rather than straight salary is totally different. First, because the team with the player you want may value a prospect more than you do and hence both sides can perceive a bargain or value through trade. Second, when trading with a lower payroll team than yours their value to WAR ratio is even lower (a 50 million dollar payroll would only value that 2 WAR player at about 2 million for a season) and they'll overvalue the chance to develop a high WAR player cheaply so longshot prospects with high ceilings become more valuable to them because if they're ever to win 50 above replacement, they'll need a lot of high WAR players on rookie scale or early arb to get their with a 50 million dollar payroll.

I should state that my 50 WAR to win 100 games point as a way to build an equation for making the playoffs is just make believe, but GMs 100% must have some form of calculation for how they spend assets to achieve objectives and as you change those parameters, the basic logic to the rest can still be applied.

Your contention about the Jays can still be a Catch-22, just not from what AA said. Rogers will spend the money to contend. When you ask? When they're in contention. So what can they do to increase their likelihood of contending? They can spend more money. And when will they start doing that? And you're back at the beginning again.