The Rays do it again

[Schad]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/73353 ... llion-deal

Five years, $14m for Matt Moore, with three years and $23.5m in options. Surplus value motherf*ckers, it's what's for dinner.

[Myth111]

I love when our players sign good contracts too but how much of that is good management and how much is inept agent related?

[Myth111]

I love cheering for the best run team in baseball. Moore locked in at 5/$14 and could go to 8/$37.5 if they exercise the extensions (could get that 8/$40 if he hits all the escalators).

To put that in perspective, here's how my guess at the structure compares to what he'd likely get in Arb.:

2011: $450k/$850K
2012: $450k/$850k
2013 (S2): $7 mil./$2.3
2014: $10/$4
2015: $13/$4
2016: $16/$9
2017: FA/$9
2018: FA/$10.5

GAWD

[Fairview4Life]

Bear with me, but this seems like a bad episode of Law and Order.

"I'd like to talk with my lawyer"

"Really? Only guilty people do that. Why would you want us to think you're guilty? Just sign this piece of paper."

[satyr9]

I don't think Myth111's numbers aren't reasonable, but Moore takes it 'cause he's pitched 4 games so far and the road from uber prospect to perennial cy young candidate (those arby numbers are pretty close to Lincecum type numbers) is a pretty bumpy one so why not take a big bag of money now and if he's paying off there's going to be a much much bigger bag waiting for him on the other end.

edit: didn't realize he was also a no signing bonus guy. He's been paid 115k so far as an 8th rounder. No question he gave up a lot of potential money, but both sides were being smart here. He needed to push his real money guarantees up as fast as possible, 'cause one Tommy John in the next two years after what he's done so far could've really left him with almost nothing.

[Skin Blues]

I love cheering for the best run team in baseball. Moore locked in at 5/$14 and could go to 8/$37.5 if they exercise the extensions (could get that 8/$40 if he hits all the escalators).

To put that in perspective, here's how my guess at the structure compares to what he'd likely get in Arb.:

2011: $450k/$850K
2012: $450k/$850k
2013 (S2): $7 mil./$2.3
2014: $10/$4
2015: $13/$4
2016: $16/$9
2017: FA/$9
2018: FA/$10.5

GAWD

And this is why it's important to have a good agent. Does Moore realize what he's doing? Why do these players give away their FA years? Or even their final arb years?

[Schad]

I love when our players sign good contracts too but how much of that is good management and how much is inept agent related?

Guessing that deals like this are more player-driven than agent-driven. Matt Sosnick (who represents Moore) stands to make 'only' around $700k-$1m over the course of the guaranteed portion, depending on what his cut might be; given the kind of money he's made over the years, his optimal outcome would be for Moore to go through the arb system and hit free agency, because he's rich either way. Moore's isn't, though...the difference between $14m and $35m is a hell of a lot smaller in impact than between $2m and $14m, should something catastrophic happen that would ruin his career during his arb years. So it makes sense for the player, even if they're (most of the time) sacrificing a fairly substantial portion of their expected earnings.

Worth noting that Sosnick is also considered a very player-friendly agent...a guy like Boras wouldn't tolerate this sort of deal because of its market-making potential, but Sosnick has a reputation for choosing not to **** over his clients to his own benefit (heh, Dontrelle Willis has a tattoo of his agency logo).

[Skin Blues]

$14M through his arb years.... what kind of injury would he have to sustain to only make that much? How many guys go through their arb years on 1 year contracts making less than that? And he's given away 2 FA years for peanuts. And if by some fluke he's not worth those peanuts, then he gets nothing because they're team options. I see no way that this is a player friendly deal. Including the 2 FA years kills the deal. He'd have been much better off doing 5 years $10M with no FA-year options. Or just not signing a contract at all.

[Schad]

$14M through his arb years.... what kind of injury would he have to sustain to only make that much? How many guys go through their arb years on 1 year contracts making less than that? And he's given away 2 FA years for peanuts. And if by some fluke he's not worth those peanuts, then he gets nothing because they're team options. I see no way that this is a player friendly deal. Including the 2 FA years kills the deal. He'd have been much better off doing 5 years $10M with no FA-year options. Or just not signing a contract at all.

It's not a player-friendly deal so much as it is a hedge...the theory being that, systemic impact aside, it's not a bad thing to be guaranteed $10m after-tax at age 22 rather than maxing out one's earnings. Because $10m is still life-changing money, whereas $500k/year for 3-4 years isn't. If we set baseball aside, and someone offered you the choice between a 100% chance at $10m or an 80% chance at $30m, the expected value of the latter might be greater, but only gambling enthusiasts and math professors would be likely to take that risk.

As for what sort of injury could prevent him from making that much: Dustin McGowan. He would've been a candidate for this sort of arb year buyout after 2007, if such things were yet in vogue, but instead he's been making the league minimum ever since.

[Skin Blues]

I guess what I'm saying is that he could have signed away his arb years for $10M instead of losing FA years. If I was in his position I wouldn't have signed this, knowing the reward I was in store for if I stay healthy. Even the absolute worst case scenario, McGowan, is a multimillionaire. But I'm obviously not in his position!

[UN-Owen]

The Rays have positioned themselves nicely to be an elite AL team for a very long time

Price, Moore, Hellickson at the top of the rotation is very impressive

[torontoaces04]

Un"****"real

[flatjacket1]

These are the types of deals we should be making with our prospects, I'd rather see Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez retained on long term contracts than to sign Fielder and risk losing the money to afford the other 2.

[wbbfan]

Bear with me, but this seems like a bad episode of Law and Order.

"I'd like to talk with my lawyer"

"Really? Only guilty people do that. Why would you want us to think you're guilty? Just sign this piece of paper."

Same thing other teams fans say after a trade with AA.

[ItsDanger]

He takes this deal to protect himself from injury. Tough to argue with that logic given how many pitchers blow their arms out.