Myth of Toronto as a small market

baulderdash77 · Post #1 » by **baulderdash77** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 1:52 am

The Blue Jays are a big market team even though they don't act like it. With 8.6 million people in the Golden Horseshoe, the Jays enjoy the largest undivided market in all of MLB. (NY, Chi & LA are all divided markets).

The attendance at Rogers Center is so low because the market is dying for a winner. There are easily enough fans that would get us back to the 3.8-4.0 million per game if management would invest in the team and pay for a sustained winner.

In fact I would suggest that we should be able to support the 2nd largest or largest payroll in baseball- yes we can compete toe to toe with the Yankees in payroll.

The fact is that Rogers subsidizes the TV network by giving them a lower than fair market TV deal (I've read the team gets $25 million per year). The TV rights to the Jays are worth well over $100 million per year if they were auctioned off at arms length. Actually closer to $200 million. The Yankees generate $400 million at YES with only 60% of the ratings we get.

Don't believe me? The Angels auctioned their TV rights off for $150 million per year and the Rangers auctioned theirs off for over $80 million per year and they don't even have top 6 local ratings.

In fact the team lead all of MLB by a very large margin in local TV ratings last year.

TEAM Network Ave Ratings Payroll
Toronto Blue Jays RSN 504,000 70 million
New York Yankees YES 319,000 201 million
Philadelphia CSN 276,000 172 million
Boston NESN 192,000 161 million
New York Mets SportsNet NY 163,000 120 million
San Francisco CSN Bay Area 127,000 118 million

Notice something there? After the Jays, the next teams go down league payroll in order of TV ratings except the Cubs & Angels (7th & 8th in viewership) are actually 5th and 6th in payroll.

The Jays are the unrealized payroll juggernaut in baseball because Rogers has convinced everyone that we can't compete with the other big market teams. In fact the last time the Jays were a big market team, we were leading MLB in attendance & ratings and payroll.

We are not a small market team. It's just simply not true!

turtle_15 · Post #2 » by **turtle_15** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:03 am

the one problem with the jays market is that their fan base is spread out in such a large area, there are huge jays fans all across the country let alone Ontario. The travel many fans would have to make to get to games can be quite long. I think thats why their tv ratings are so good many stay home instead of making the drive to Torono

hsb · Post #3 » by **hsb** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:12 am

Sportsnet uses a different method for viewership calculations than local US stations.

With that said, the Blue Jays should comfortable be a top 5 team in viewership.

Skin Blues · Post #4 » by **Skin Blues** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:17 am

If their ratings are that high with a low payroll and consistent 4th place finish, what motivation do they have to spend more money?

dagger · Post #5 » by **dagger** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:27 am

Skin Blues wrote:If their ratings are that high with a low payroll and consistent 4th place finish, what motivation do they have to spend more money?

You're right. It's a low risk environment and stepping out of the shell and accepting more risk is somewhat daunting for the bean-counters.

But if we bid aggressively for Darvish, I'll give Rogers credit where credit is due, not only for trying to use its financial heft to improve the team but making a statement to future free agents that there is a plan to be more than a .500 team.

lilneige · Post #6 » by **lilneige** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:46 am

well ya, if the "local" is included the entire Canada, it is a large market.

vs

Those two map is MLB.tv blackout policy map from wiki.

baulderdash77 · Post #7 » by **baulderdash77** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:53 am

Bottom line is that ratings numbers drive ad revenue rates which drive profit. If they're getting that kind of consistent ratings then it doesn't matter where it comes from. It only matters what the age demographics are.

We had 11 straight years of top 3 attendance from 1985 to 1995 when the team was competitive. We can draw 3-4 million people if we're a serious playoff contender.

lilneige · Post #8 » by **lilneige** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:01 am

baulderdash77 wrote:Bottom line is that ratings numbers drive ad revenue rates which drive profit. If they're getting that kind of consistent ratings then it doesn't matter where it comes from. It only matters what the age demographics are.

Yes, So the rating number should include the feed in the other country, like Japan(Ichiro, DiceK, Matsui, and more) Korea(Choo), Taiwan(Wang, Kuo). If Jays got Darvish for 2012, they should able to generates revenue by selling the broadcasting right to Japan.

lilneige · Post #9 » by **lilneige** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:09 am

baulderdash77 wrote:We had 11 straight years of top 3 attendance from 1985 to 2005 when the team was competitive. We can draw 3-4 million people if we're a serious playoff contender.

I just checked baseball-reference.com. The last time that Jays had attendance in the TOP 5 of 14 teams in AL was 1996.

baulderdash77 · Post #10 » by **baulderdash77** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:11 am

We'll get a separate TV contract to rebroadcast our feed in Japan. Also because the games will be broadcast in Japan there will be Japanese car and electronics manufacturers buying sponsorship spots inside Rogers Center.

Seriously the impact of getting Darvish could be $5-$10 million in foreign TV contracts and another $5 million in sponsorship's per year.

If the team starts winning then there will be local ratings & attendance increases.

Darvish is probably one of the better bankable investments to come in a while for a baseball team.

baulderdash77 · Post #11 » by **baulderdash77** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:12 am

lilneige wrote:
baulderdash77 wrote:We had 11 straight years of top 3 attendance from 1985 to 2005 when the team was competitive. We can draw 3-4 million people if we're a serious playoff contender.

I just checked baseball-reference.com. The last time that Jays had attendance in the TOP 5 of 14 teams in AL was 1996.

I meant 1995 my bad. 11 straight years from 1985 to 1995.

lilneige · Post #12 » by **lilneige** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:18 am

baulderdash77 wrote:We'll get a separate TV contract to rebroadcast our feed in Japan. Also because the games will be broadcast in Japan there will be Japanese car and electronics manufacturers buying sponsorship spots inside Rogers Center.

Seriously the impact of getting Darvish could be $5-$10 million in foreign TV contracts and another $5 million in sponsorship's per year.

If the team starts winning then there will be local ratings & attendance increases.

Darvish is probably one of the better bankable investments to come in a while for a baseball team.

Not just from finance standpoint, Darvish is still young but already has solid command, above average fastball, average to plus secondary stuff. A soild #3 SP should be the bottom line. We have holes in the rotation. Compare to Fielder, I think Darvish makes much more sense for the Jays to spend the money on.

ItsDanger · Post #13 » by **ItsDanger** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 7:13 am

The viewership matters for advertising rates, you're excluding the vast population that pays for sports channels but doesnt watch them via satellite or cable. Thats where NY comes out ahead on the TV side. I question their #'s anyways. Seems quite low for NY. But, Toronto is only a small market compared to NY & LA. The metro & surrounding area is quite a large base here. Problem is that the broadcaster owns the team and doesnt spend the 'savings' of paying a team for broadcasting rights.

Leolovinliberal · Post #14 » by **Leolovinliberal** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 7:23 am

Top 5 NA metros:

Mexico City
NY
LA
Toronto
Chicago

wbbfan · Post #15 » by **wbbfan** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:28 pm

Toronto isn't a small market, but its a bottom 5 in attendance fair weather baseball market. The way AA is building in a couple years this team will be a contender and will contend for years. And the fair weather fans will come back well see 27-30k attendance per game and 100+M dollar in payroll.

rarefind · Post #16 » by **rarefind** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:37 pm

wbbfan wrote:Toronto isn't a small market, but its a bottom 5 in attendance fair weather baseball market. The way AA is building in a couple years this team will be a contender and will contend for years. And the fair weather fans will come back well see 27-30k attendance per game and 100+M dollar in payroll.

The Blue Jays have not been to the playoffs since the lockout. It may sound fickle, but when the Jays start winning, the fans will come back. Whether this means an infusion of money by Rogers or letting the young core develop will have to be seen.

Parataxis · Post #17 » by **Parataxis** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:07 pm

Leolovinliberal wrote:Top 5 NA metros:

Mexico City
NY
LA
Toronto
Chicago

Cities rather than Metros (which makes sense, since metro-areas are so ill defined) but yes. Compared to the rest of North America, we're not just a big market, we're a huge one.

wbbfan · Post #18 » by **wbbfan** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:05 pm

rarefind wrote:
wbbfan wrote:Toronto isn't a small market, but its a bottom 5 in attendance fair weather baseball market. The way AA is building in a couple years this team will be a contender and will contend for years. And the fair weather fans will come back well see 27-30k attendance per game and 100+M dollar in payroll.

The Blue Jays have not been to the playoffs since the lockout. It may sound fickle, but when the Jays start winning, the fans will come back. Whether this means an infusion of money by Rogers or letting the young core develop will have to be seen.

Doesnt matter, fans should support the team through thick and thin. Any team based in a market that is fair weather fans as a majority is lucky to keep said team.
How long has it been since the cubs won the WS? jays won twice in the 90s. Cubs fans still come out in droves. We've seen the big money way and hot starts that didnt equal butts in seats (a side from when the yankees play in TO.)
I fully believe the team will be a play off team with in 2 years and fans will start to come back. But that kind of none sustained support at an even slightly below average or average level of the team is very troubling. When butts arent in seats, pay roll shouldnt go up. Rogers is a bazillion dollar company because they under stand investment and money managment. They wont put the cart before the horse and try to buy fans. The raptors for instance, havent been good out side of 2 seasons, in which they were mid level of good teams and not contenders. And they are still well supprted. My point is, it doesnt matter if you have 30 billion people in the greater area. If attendance is poor when the team needs the support (Ie this year) Then their is no right to complain that pay roll isnt higher or flaunt a top 5 market size. This year well see a young and ever improving team with guys on the brink of stardom and a team on the brink of play ofs. If people dont get out to see it now, then im going to be really dissapointed in TO.