RealGM

Currently we are are at a likely 43, if Laffey and Olivers sign as expected. So some guys are going to have to go by opening day.

Pitchers

37 Henderson Alvarez 58 Chad Beck 34 Joel Carreño
27 Brett Cecil -- Evan Crawford 4 Kyle Drabek
36 Alan Farina 49 Danny Farquhar -- Jim Hoey
44 Casey Janssen 51 Jesse Litsch -- Trystan Magnuson
29 Dustin McGowan 23 Brandon Morrow 47 Luis Pérez
24 Ricky Romero -- Sergio Santos 33 Carlos Villanueva
-- Jason Frasor (-- Aaron Laffey --Darren Oliver)

I wonder if Beck, and Farquhar are on their last spring training. They are prime to be cut.

Catchers

9 J. P. Arencibia -- Travis d'Arnaud -- Jeff Mathis

Obviously all three will be sticking on the 40-man.

Infielders

30 David Cooper 10 Edwin Encarnación 5 Yunel Escobar
3 Adeiny Hechavarria 2 Kelly Johnson 13 Brett Lawrie
26 Adam Lind 18 Mike McCoy -- Michael McDade
20 Mark Teahen -- Luis Valbuena

I think all of these guys will remain and survive spring training. Obviously, Cooper is major trade bait, and McDade is probably on the table too. If anybody wants Teahen, they can have him, but obviously no one does. Our minor league IF depth is surprisingly thin compared to pitching and the OF.

Outfielders

19 José Bautista 11 Rajai Davis -- Ben Francisco
1 Darin Mastroianni 28 Colby Rasmus 74 Moises Sierra
45 Travis Snider 46 Eric Thames

I am surprised Mastro survived the winter so far. Like Jeroloman, I was sure he was a goner. Sierra had a big year and I wonder if now is the time to capitalize on him and move him out. He is majorly blocked by our OF depth.

25 man Roster...
OF - Jose, Rasmus, Davis, and Francisco are certain. One of Snider and Thames stays. I believe they both still have one more option so we don't have to make a firm decision this year on them.

That leaves 20 spots.

IF - Lawrie, Esco, Johnson, Lind, EE, for sure. One of McCoy/Valbuena stays. I don't know if Valbuena has to clear or not. If he does it is possible he might get picked up. I would give the edge to McCoy right now as he plays more positions. Teahen is a mystery. Does AA have the go ahead to stash him in AAA. He would 100% clear waivers. Nobody touches him, even if he is only at 2.75 million.

That leaves (likely) 14 spots. Maybe only 13.

C - JPA, Mathis are up. D'Arnaud starts in AAA. My money is that by August he is up and Mathis is playing elsewhere.

That leaves 12 spots.

Pitchers - Ricky, Morrow, Alvarez, Janssen, Frasor, Oliver, Santos, Litcsh, and Villy for sure. Drabek, Carreno, Cecil, Laffey, Magnuson, Farina and Crawford have options left. McGowan and Hoey don't, they are make or break it. I think both get claimed if they go to waivers. Like I said earlier I am not sure about Beck, and Farquhar.

That means a five man rotation and a 7-man pen.

we should probably wait a couple months for this. its possible AA isn't done. Fielder still hasn't been signed yet. and theres alwyas the trade route.

Our bullpen is looking solid:

Janssen
Frasor
Perez
Carreno
Villeneuva
Oliver
Santos

Our first 5 can be long relief pitchers.

José Bautista
Colby Rasmus
Rajai Davis
Ben Francisco
Darin Mastroianni
Colby Rasmus
Moises Sierra
Travis Snider
Eric Thames
Mark Teahen
Kelly Johnson (AA mentioned moving him to LF if needed)
Edwin Encarnacion

Something is bound to happen.

Doesn't the 40 man roster have to be kept up during the offseason? I read that Laffey signed a split contract, so I wonder if that's more like a minor league deal, spring training invite thing where he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man yet? If him and Hoey are like that it would make more sense to me 'cause otherwise I think a couple guys like Farq and whoever need to get dropped when Laffey and Oliver are officially added.

But I'm not sure I fully understand how the 40 man works after rule 5 and before opening day.

Perez is likely out by opening day. We have a LOOGY and Laffey now.

As far as opening day goes you may be right as it'll be as much about who can go down without waivers as anything, but I'm not sure I'd count out Perez for sure.

gm ip era whip xfip
37 65.0 5.12 1.55 3.79
4 18.2 7.23 1.77 4.40
33 46.1 4.27 1.47 3.54

Those are his totals on top with his time as a starter and a reliever below. He was atrocious as a starter and skews his whole line, but he wasn't too terrible as a reliever.

Unfortunately, I can't separate out his lefty/righty splits as a reliever exclusively, which would be interesting, but generally he's useless against righties from what I can tell. He's got a 9.43/k9 and 1.63/bb9 vs. 6.03/k9 and 5.3/bb9 vs. righties.

Laffey on the other hand doesn't really have big k and bb splits righty/lefty (they're close enough I'm not gonna bother copying them down). He does however have absurd babip splits (lefties at .253 and righties at .379), which suggests he lets everyone make contact, unlike Perez, but there has to be a difference in the quality even though the GB/FG/LD splits don't show much. I guess you could chalk that up to luck, but that's a pretty extreme split.

kcthekid wrote:José Bautista
Colby Rasmus
Rajai Davis
Ben Francisco
Darin Mastroianni
Colby Rasmus
Moises Sierra
Travis Snider
Eric Thames
Mark Teahen
Kelly Johnson (AA mentioned moving him to LF if needed)
Edwin Encarnacion

Something is bound to happen.

Yeh - Plus being rumored on Cespedes. If the jays do get him, the 3 outfield spots should be solidified for the next 3+ years

Just saw that Hoey was outrighted to AAA (removed from 40 man) http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... -15-jan-3/ . Frasor's on and Laffey never showed up, which I think is because of the split contract (he's also on the non-roster invitees list on the Jays site, which I think pretty much makes that definitive), so when Oliver is officially added we need one more drop.

satyr9 wrote:Just saw that Hoey was outrighted to AAA (removed from 40 man) http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/pro ... -15-jan-3/ . Frasor's on and Laffey never showed up, which I think is because of the split contract (he's also on the non-roster invitees list on the Jays site, which I think pretty much makes that definitive), so when Oliver is officially added we need one more drop.

Yep. I would guess Mastro unless this team wants to keep him as the fourth OF in LV. Our AAA outfield is already lined up with Gose, Sierra, and the loser of Snider/Thames likely there.