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ShiDavidi
With deals for KJ ($6.375m), Francisco ($1.537m) and swingman CV ($2.277m), Jays have $68.6m committed to 18 players including DFAd Teahen

Deals for Janssen and Morrow should bring the payroll to about $71-72m tops for 20 guys. Guys on minimums (pre-arb) ought to bring the payroll for 25 players in around $75m.

75mil - not too shabby.

Shi Davidi says close to $80m, but it's hard to say without knowing who rounds out the roster and how much Morrow in particular gets in arbitration.

Also, Teahan may be moved to another team, today. He was DFA'd and apparently there has been a bite. Maybe Jays don't have to eat of his salary, just the majority.

Strav wrote:75mil - not too shabby.

So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

80 is being very kind with the numbers and then rounding up afterwards.

Let's assume you can plunge as much as 7.75 into this year's payroll for Teahen's salary, Hechavarria's (it is a mlb contract), and Rauch's buyout as salary in 2012 that isn't on the roster. Personally, I would put it all as bookkeeping that isn't factored in, but when we're trying to be kind to Rogers this is how we do it.

With 23 guys either signed or pre-arb it's 63.51 plus that 7.75 for three off roster. That assumes Arencibia, Lawrie, Valbuena or McCoy, Cecil, Alvarez, and Perez at 0.45, which is rough average, but won't change the total by more than a half a mil even with some serious generosity. We also know the range for Morrow and Janssen. MLBTR has been well within range of every arb number given out 'cause it's fairly simple to see the comparables. That means Janssen and Morrow are 5.5-6.0 combined. To me, the upper threshold you can put on it with today's numbers is going to be 63.51 for 23 plus 6.0 for Morrow and Janssen, plus 7.75 if you wanna run wild with off-roster salaries for a grand total of 77.26 (and IMO including Hech is nonsense, but it's the only way I could add enough to see how he rounds to 80).

Really without any changes we're talking about a roster that's going to struggle to break the 70 mark for what's actually on it. Also, before someone flays me, remember I'm a big defender of how the Jays as a franchise are going about their business, so you can skewer me for that if you like, but not for attacking the low payroll, just for pointing it out. There should be no rationalizing this thing as maybe an 80m payroll, because it isn't. Without any new extensions or players brought in this is a 70-75m payroll team.

I personally think the 6 for Rauch and Teahen's buyouts is 2011 budget along with the 5 sent out for Wells and that even in the cheap framework of Rogers, AA has a significant amount of room to add if he can. Not enough for the 20+ on Prince, that would require him begging and promising, but I think his math has him at far more like 70/80-85 available (maybe even 90. I don't think the budget took a dive after AA magically got Wells a ticket out of town, just that AA, unlike every other GM out there, didn't go buck and re-fill it instantly) for the year after Morrow and Janssen sign. Admittedly, that's my own conjecture on the situation with nothing to back it up.

So Morrow and Janssen are the two headed for arb not that worried as I would expect AA to have them both locked into multi-year deals before the deadline.

The word on twitter is that Morrow is asking for 4.2 and Jays are offering 3.9. They speculation is that they're working on a multi year deal since they're so close.

I came up with 78-79 million including Teahan and I bounced it by Bluebird Banter and they got the same thing. This represents an 8-9 million increase from last year.

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Strav wrote:75mil - not too shabby.

So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

Who cares how much the payroll is? Honestly, do you want a bad team with a 100 mill payroll or a good at a 80 mill payroll? All that matters is if we can win, not our payroll.

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Strav wrote:75mil - not too shabby.

So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

Rogers is a joke. Bunch of cheap, greedy bastards running that company I tell ya!

BobbyBoy wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Strav wrote:75mil - not too shabby.

So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

Who cares how much the payroll is? Honestly, do you want a bad team with a 100 mill payroll or a good at a 80 mill payroll? All that matters is if we can win, not our payroll.

some logic. finally...

Wilner is reporting the Jays offered 1.8 and Jannsen is looking for 2.2 million. This is another close enough thing. I can't imagine they'll go to arb with our best reliever and let him walk at the end of the season. Remember there is no compensation picks next year.

baulderdash77 wrote:I came up with 78-79 million including Teahan and I bounced it by Bluebird Banter and they got the same thing. This represents an 8-9 million increase from last year.

No, if we're including who is gone, as part of 2012, you have to include the $5m payout for Wells in last year's budget. Apples to apples. So the increase, as satyr has demonstrated, is negligible, about the equivalent to an adjustment to current rate of inflation.

baulderdash77 wrote:Wilner is reporting the Jays offered 1.8 and Jannsen is looking for 2.2 million. This is another close enough thing. I can't imagine they'll go to arb with our best reliever and let him walk at the end of the season. Remember there is no compensation picks next year.

Maybe, maybe not, Janssen seems enthusiastic about a shot at free agency. That could be an agent's script, but maybe he sees a nice payday and is willing to bet his arm on it.

dagger wrote:

baulderdash77 wrote:I came up with 78-79 million including Teahan and I bounced it by Bluebird Banter and they got the same thing. This represents an 8-9 million increase from last year.

No, if we're including who is gone, as part of 2012, you have to include the $5m payout for Wells in last year's budget. Apples to apples. So the increase, as satyr has demonstrated, is negligible, about the equivalent to an adjustment to current rate of inflation.

We were at 70.5 million last year including Wells' $5 million. So $65 on the field. This year we're going to be at $73-74 on the field so it's apples to apples because in both years we have ~$5 million in buyouts on the books.

If Jannsen repeats last year's performance then he can probably get a 3 year deal in the $8-10 million range. I'd be pretty enthusiastic about it too if I were him.

BobbyBoy wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:

Strav wrote:75mil - not too shabby.

So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

Who cares how much the payroll is? Honestly, do you want a bad team with a 100 mill payroll or a good at a 80 mill payroll? All that matters is if we can win, not our payroll.

Call me crazy, but I'd like a great team with a 100m payroll over a good team with a 80m. Teams rarely get worse by signing somebody like Fielder.

dagger wrote:Shi Davidi says close to $80m, but it's hard to say without knowing who rounds out the roster and how much Morrow in particular gets in arbitration.

Also, Teahan may be moved to another team, today. He was DFA'd and apparently there has been a bite. Maybe Jays don't have to eat of his salary, just the majority.

So you're saying that there's a team out there that might bite on him and his salary?!

Parataxis wrote:

BobbyBoy wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:So we're giving Rogers credit now for getting the payroll to a level that's 20M below the MLB average? Is that what it's come to?

Who cares how much the payroll is? Honestly, do you want a bad team with a 100 mill payroll or a good at a 80 mill payroll? All that matters is if we can win, not our payroll.

Call me crazy, but I'd like a great team with a 100m payroll over a good team with a 80m. Teams rarely get worse by signing somebody like Fielder.

we dont even know if we're a good team at 80m, we can easily be a average to horrible team at 80m, then with fielder we will be a average to good or very good team...we gotta wait til we a good team before we spend 100m to be a great team or 120m+ to be elite

dballislife wrote:we dont even know if we're a good team at 80m, we can easily be a average to horrible team at 80m, then with fielder we will be a average to good or very good team...we gotta wait til we a good team before we spend 100m to be a great team or 120m+ to be elite

We have a lot of question marks on our team, I'll give you that. But to pass up on talent like a Prince Fielder would be stupid. Especially when your biggest competitors (Yanks and Sox) have no need for such a talent or are even bothering going for such a talent.

I think its safe to say that Prince Fielder batting behind Jose Bautista will make us better then average. Us as Jays fans have waited way too long for an opportunity for a player like this and a dreamed scenario like this to pass it up.