2012 Bill James Blue Jays Starting Pitching Projections

[baulderdash77]

Bill James should be everyone here's go to guy for decent projections. Here's excerpts of his 2012 Jays predictions. I'll go through my projected pitching lineup:

Romero: 221 IP, 12-13, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 175 SO
Morrow: 191 IP, 11-10, 3.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 209 SO
Alvarez: No projection*
Cecil: 191 IP, 9-12, 4.19 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 146 SO
McGowan: 112 IP, 5-7, 4.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 97 SO
Drabek: 128 IP, 5-9, 4.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 94 SO

* From Fangraphs- Rotochamp has Alvarez at 150 IP, 10-7, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP & 95 SO

Bill James has never been a fan of Romero & he's rating him lower than his 2010 and 2011 xFIP which is quite unusual for him. Maybe he's thinking that Romero's been pretty lucky and the luck will reverse. Needless to say if Romero regressed like this the season would be a disaster.

He's similarly not very bullish on McGowan and I would bet he's right. I don't think McGowan is going to have a full or productive season.

For Morrow and Cecil this would be big steps forward and with our offense I'd hazard to guess they'd have better records.

[flatjacket1]

I think its fair to expect some regression from Romero. He really outperformed his peripherals last year, I doubt lightning strikes twice.