Optimism over Jays premature

[LittleOzzy]

Did Rogers Communications, owner of the Toronto Blue Jays, invest in a news wire service or take over a string of baseball websites during the off-season?

That’s about all I can come up with to explain the abundance of optimistic Jays spring training stories coming from varied sources, with the recurring theme that Toronto is again ready to contend in the tough American League East.

I’ll concede that young general manager Alex Anthopoulos has done an admirable job in his Blue Jays makeover, especially as he wasn’t given carte blanche to buy his way to team success.

Most importantly, he repaired the bullpen. He finally added a legitimate closer in young Sergio Santos and valuable closing insurance in setup man Francisco Cordero.

He re-signed power man Jose Bautista, who hit 54 homers in 2010 and 43 last season and rates with the best sluggers in the game.

He also acquired the team’s best young talent, 22-year-old Canadian Brett Lawrie, who showed huge power in his short stint in Toronto last season.

But don’t let a few good moves mislead you about the chances of success for Canada’s only team.

Remember, this was a .500 club that ranked 20th in batting average and 24th in ERA last season. Many answers are needed before I’ll be convinced that this team will be in late-season contention.

Where, for example, is the depth in starting pitching? Ricky Romero is an ace, but after that it’s not so pretty.

Brandon Morrow is at times intimidating. But he’s an inconsistent starter with an 11-11 record and a high 4.72 ERA. Brett Cecil has talent, but that 4-11 record and 4.73 ERA can’t be ignored. Henderson Alvarez, at age 21, has great potential but it’s unfair to ask too much of him too soon. And the once strong Dustin McGowan is now more of a project than a certainty in his comeback from shoulder surgery.

The club’s hitting is also questionable.

Shouldn’t Colby Rasmus be much better than a .225 hitter? Will Kelly Johnson top his woeful .222 average? Can Eric Thames improve on his horrendous .313 on-base percentage? Will Adam Lind ever again hit like he did in 2009?

http://thechronicleherald.ca/sports/687 ... -premature

[Tyrone Slothrop]

How long do you think it will take for beat reporters to finally stop talking about traditional baseball statistics? ERA and BA aren't awful statistics (like RBI's and Wins are), but it seems strange to me that with the great statistical analysis that's going on online there are still articles that only reference these traditional stats. Every year, for the past few years, I cringe on the first day of Blue Jays broadcasts when I see the old "BA/RBI/HR" statline when a hitter comes to the plate.

I guess it just comes down to the fact that serious baseball fans can find real MLB analysis online, and that casual fans don't give a **** about real stats like OPS, UZR, and FIP, so there's no need for beat reporters to research it.

[flatjacket1]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Tampa Bay was 25th in BA and they made playoffs. The top 11 ERA teams in the MLB didn't win the WS.

[Schad]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Chris Cochrane is a hockey-and-sometimes-boxing guy who now also does baseball because the Chronically Horrid has slashed staffing. Their business reporter now also reviews books, and the guy who reviews restaurants doubles as something else...can't remember what.

[flatjacket1]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Chris Cochrane is a hockey-and-sometimes-boxing guy who now also does baseball because the Chronically Horrid has slashed staffing. Their business reporter now also reviews books, and the guy who reviews restaurants doubles as something else...can't remember what.

I understand that sometimes things like this have to happen but the guys dumb for trying to make a controversial article on something he knows nothing about.

[Kaizen]

How long do you think it will take for beat reporters to finally stop talking about traditional baseball statistics? ERA and BA aren't awful statistics (like RBI's and Wins are), but it seems strange to me that with the great statistical analysis that's going on online there are still articles that only reference these traditional stats. Every year, for the past few years, I cringe on the first day of Blue Jays broadcasts when I see the old "BA/RBI/HR" statline when a hitter comes to the plate.

I guess it just comes down to the fact that serious baseball fans can find real MLB analysis online, and that casual fans don't give a **** about real stats like OPS, UZR, and FIP, so there's no need for beat reporters to research it.

I personally do not understand and do not care to learn what the new stats mean. You are right that this casual fan could not care less about the new stats all the young fans love.

[flatjacket1]

I personally do not understand and do not care to learn what the new stats mean. You are right that this casual fan could not care less about the new stats all the young fans love.

Not necessarily young fans but fans who want to understand baseball better. Its like a science.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

I personally do not understand and do not care to learn what the new stats mean. You are right that this casual fan could not care less about the new stats all the young fans love.

Not necessarily young fans but fans who want to understand baseball better. Its like a science.

But not even that complicated of a science. If you want to keep things simple, just look at OPS and FIP.

[flatjacket1]

I personally do not understand and do not care to learn what the new stats mean. You are right that this casual fan could not care less about the new stats all the young fans love.

Not necessarily young fans but fans who want to understand baseball better. Its like a science.

But not even that complicated of a science. If you want to keep things simple, just look at OPS and FIP.

Things can get a lot deeper with stats UZR/150 and WPA or even some of the contact%.

Its a great thing because you can learn as much as you want. There is always a next level to everything. You can also stop learning.

OPS is a stat I think most people expanded to last season (I think broadcasters just started using it too). FIP should become more widespread, because ERA might be the wackiest statistic out there. It's not quite as bad as RBI but its pretty terrible.

[Lateral Quicks]

These glass half full articles fail to fully appreciate the counter-possibility - that a very young team shows significant organic improvement. That's the more likely scenario in my mind; the only question is whether there will be enough improvement to make the playoffs. With a second wildcard, it's a real possibility.

[tecumseh18]

the Chronically Horrid .

How I remember that term from my long gone Dalhousie University days. Recent cut-backs aside, this is a paper that NEVER had any credibility. It would be as if one of the local community newspapers in Toronto (e.g. Town Crier) suddenly found itself to be the only newspaper in the city.

I refuse to even read the entire article. For example, criticizing KJ's hitting last year is obviously wrongheaded. But I do admire the sniping at establishment sports "journalists". And our starting five does appear weaksauce at this point.

But mainly the guy misses the point that early on in spring training is a time - the only time - for unabashed optimism. In baseball, it was ever thus.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Just reading the headline I had to snicker. I've heard nothing but negativity towards this team.

[HangTime]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Tampa Bay was 25th in BA and they made playoffs. The top 11 ERA teams in the MLB didn't win the WS.

I love Joe Maddon's unorthodox style of play (lineup, defensive, getting SH to bat Right-Righty, Lefty-Lefty sometimes), you never know what he'll call for.

Also, why do people put stock into position. For example people say Escobar has more trade value as a SS than a 2B. If he could duplicate what he did last year + play 2B wouldn't that increase his value, because a team that trades for could easily move him back to SS.

[Fairview4Life]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Chris Cochrane is a hockey-and-sometimes-boxing guy who now also does baseball because the Chronically Horrid has slashed staffing. Their business reporter now also reviews books, and the guy who reviews restaurants doubles as something else...can't remember what.

The restaurant reviewer had been a local sports guy. He also ate himself into diabetes, I believe.

[flatjacket1]

Any article that uses ERA or BA to try and prove a point isn't worth reading into.

Tampa Bay was 25th in BA and they made playoffs. The top 11 ERA teams in the MLB didn't win the WS.

I love Joe Maddon's unorthodox style of play (lineup, defensive, getting SH to bat Right-Righty, Lefty-Lefty sometimes), you never know what he'll call for.

Also, why do people put stock into position. For example people say Escobar has more trade value as a SS than a 2B. If he could duplicate what he did last year + play 2B wouldn't that increase his value, because a team that trades for could easily move him back to SS.

Its because of positional adjustment from different positions. Let's say a DH (Like Edwin) had 2.5 fWAR (which is what he had last year). If Edwin played the catcher position, he would have had 5 fWAR last season (DH's get punished with -1 fWAR when their WAR is calculated, while C's have +1.5 fWAR when their WAR is calculated.

The reason they do this is to make sure a CF, C or SS get extra value for fielding harder positions.

The reason it won't increase value is because of the opportunity cost of developing a players skills at one position. If we stuck Lind back at LF he likely be much worse than when he started.