What "ifs" have to break Jays way for playoffs?

dagger · Post #1 » by **dagger** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 1:55 pm

I thought of the things that seem to be going right this spring and compiled a list of things that have to break right for the Jays to stay in the playoff hunt to the end.

1. If Adam Lind can sustain a .275 average with 30 HRs and an improved efficiency with runners in scoring position. (Based on spring training, still iify to doubtful)
2. If Kelly Johnson can regain his form of two years ago (Based on ST, looking more like a yes)
3. If Yunel Escobar can repeat what he did last season ((Based on ST, looking like a yes)
4. If Brett Lawrie can show at least modest improvement over his rookie season, at the plate and in the field (Based on ST, that's a strong yes)
5. If Jose Bautista can give the team at least .275/35/100 if not more (Based on ST, no reason to think otherwise)
6. If Edwin Encranacion can play like he did in the second half of last season (Based on ST, looks more yes than no).
7. If Colby Rasmus can hit like he did before TLR got in his head (Based on ST, not likely to get back all the way, but will be better than last season).
8. If the Jays solidify their LF sitn behind a strong hitting Snider or Thames (Based on ST, still uncertain)
9. IF JPA can raise his avge a bit while perhaps adding another five homers (Based on ST, still iffy but may be a yes, especially on the homers)
10. If Ricky Romero can repeat as staff ace (Based on ST, yes)
11. If Brandon Morrow can break through to be a really scarey - consistently good - #2 starter (Based on ST, TBD but looks hopeful)
12. If Henderson Alvarez still looks as good or better than he did last season (Based on ST, an emphatic yes)
13. If Brett Cecil can regain his form of two years ago and nail down fourth starter (Based on ST, looks more no than yes)
14. If Kyle Drabek can regain his form of a top prospect and nail down fourth or fifth starter (Based on ST, looks more no than yes at this point)
15. If Dustin McGowan can give 5-6 consistently good innings as fourth or fifth starter. (Based on ST, looks more yes than no)
15. If not Cecil/Drabek, can Aaron Laffey be a positive surprise as fifth starter (Based on ST, he's still very much in the hunt).
16. If the bullpen is as much improved as AA intended (Based on ST, you don't get much of a sample, and guys like Santos aren't getting into many Grapefruit League games by design, so TBD.)

Right now, I'd say more of the ifs, including a couple of key ones (Johnson and Lawrie giving hitting support in front and behind Jose ,and Alavarez possibly being a terrific #3 in his first full season) are breaking Toronto's way, suggesting a minimum 85 win season is possible. The Jays have had an inordinate amount of guys capable of achieving a higher level than last season based on their skill level and/or past performance. So far, there seem to be at least a few of those breakthrough possibly happening.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #2 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 2:37 pm

1) Basing anything off of ST is silly.
2) Lind's OBP is way more relevant than his BA. And "Improved efficiency with runners in scoring position" is not really something that a batter can improve.

kavan · Post #3 » by **kavan** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:01 pm

^ I hear that all the time, I think ST is a great indicator for team like us who is playing our young guys, maybe not for the Sox and Yanks because they are still getting the feeling for guys. I think winning is winning and there is no other way to get a feel for how our team would be other then the wins we are putting together. Clearly we are doing a good job of beating contending teams from reg season last year. I think so far this is the best ST team we have put on the field, go back and look its FACT.

Only thing I would not judge our success on is a strong April we have had a few of those we have had a strong first few months it is usually towards the middle of the season where we lose a few in a row to the yanks sox or rays that throws us back.

I think we have a great shot at being an AL East contender we just have to win Division games! We were terrible after the midway point vs the Yanks and Sox last year. Few wins against our D rivals and we were in the hunt!

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #4 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:22 pm

kavan wrote:^ I hear that all the time, I think ST is a great indicator for team like us who is playing our young guys, maybe not for the Sox and Yanks because they are still getting the feeling for guys. I think winning is winning and there is no other way to get a feel for how our team would be other then the wins we are putting together.

Huh? If you're going to argue that Spring Training wins mean something, you're going to have to do better than "winning is winning"

satyr9 · Post #5 » by **satyr9** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:41 pm

You can't say anything based on spring training, but don't get caught up in that argument for Dagger's thread. It's not anything definitive and isn't meant to be, but since all we've had is ST, can't we still ponder things during ST? I know we're all kind of just holding our breathe waiting for actual games, but it's fine to still talk about stuff too.

What I take away from that list is this: There's simply too much talent, unproven or not, on the offensive end for it to completely flounder. Sure, it may not be up to Sox/Yanks standards, but it's one of the better offenses and, hot or cool preseasons aside, I don't think we're going to have to worry about that side. The real question is all pitching and spring training just isn't a viable way to get a sense of that. Pitchers are throwing way less, facing random lineups, and potentially working on approaches rather than trying to get guys out. Sometimes dominance is scarier to me than struggles for ST.

For instance, I'm actually a little disconcerted by Alvarez's spring, 'cause he should be trying to work in a new pitch. Anyone know if he's got a third pitch going? I have a hard time believing he does and for the long run of the season that scares me a bit, 'cause to get through 160+ IP I think he's going to need one, unless he's just that darn good, which he might be.

And with the staff it's going to take a while even in regular season before we have any sense of their 162 game potential, but just like this thread, 10 games in we're going to be talking about that too.

LLJ · Post #6 » by **LLJ** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:16 pm

As AA said, everyone has to have a career year. :lol:

dagger · Post #7 » by **dagger** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:33 pm

satyr9 wrote:You can't say anything based on spring training, but don't get caught up in that argument for Dagger's thread. It's not anything definitive and isn't meant to be, but since all we've had is ST, can't we still ponder things during ST? I know we're all kind of just holding our breathe waiting for actual games, but it's fine to still talk about stuff too.

I agree, that was my point, not to make definite extrapolations, but to suggest positives that could extend into the season. Individual performances can be deceiving. Some vets can have a poor spring and then turn it on in April. And lots of guys throw up nice numbers in spring and then revert to form in April. My interest is in tracking the aggregate of those "ifs", because if a preponderance of the question marks are being answered favorably, then that would suggest the team may be improved overall, if only slightly.

UN-Owen · Post #8 » by **UN-Owen** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 6:13 pm

IF the plane carrying the Yankees collides mid-air with the plane carrying the Red Sox, then I think we've got a shot at the wild card

Brinbe · Post #9 » by **Brinbe** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 6:58 pm

pitching, pitching, pitching. Need some starters to breakout and our bullpen to come through.

Lateral Quicks · Post #10 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:09 pm

LLJ wrote:As AA said, everyone has to have a career year.

I disagree. I think the beauty of such a young and talented team is that not everyone has to have a career year for them to contend. There is so much potential, not all of it has to be realized simultaneously.

Hendrix · Post #11 » by **Hendrix** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:31 pm

LLJ wrote:As AA said, everyone has to have a career year.

Disagree also.

Basically I think from a pitching standpoint we need Morrow to step up and have a great year, and as long as everyone else kinda does-what-they-do, and we get some kind of consistancy out of the 3/4 spots we should be alright from a pitching standpoint.

From an offensive/fielder standpoint I think our offense is pretty deadly if we simply get similar production as normal from most of our players, and get an improvment in the 4 hole.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #12 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:47 pm

Hendrix wrote:
LLJ wrote:As AA said, everyone has to have a career year.

Disagree also.

I'm pretty sure it's a joke in reference to an article written at the beginning of ST that quoted AA as saying that everyone needed to have a career year, when in reality he said that they didn't need anyone to have a career year.

Dr Positivity · Post #13 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:13 pm

Morrow finally going into beast mode is the biggest one IMO.

Homer Jay · Post #14 » by **Homer Jay** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:01 pm

ST matters. I remember when Cecil Fielder had like 7 HRs in ST in his first year back from Japan, and everybody was all just, "It's just ST!", then he ended up hitting 50 HRs for the first time in over a decade.

Really encouraged by Lawrie, Johnson, Alvarez, and Morrow so far. Just improvement from those four will put us on the cusp of playoffs.

BigLeagueChew · Post #15 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:55 pm

1. if our closers only have 5 blown saves or fewer, should give us 5 more wins

2. if romero walks less hitters , should be good for 19-20 wins

3. if all of our starters stay healthy and can throw as close to 200 IP as possible

4. If someone can protect bautista in the batting order

5. if Farrell can learn from his mistakes last season and stop stupid bunt plays while our 2nd best hitter is at the plate(escobar)

6. if the yankees, red sox and rays have mediocre seasons, we have a good chance :lol:

satyr9 · Post #16 » by **satyr9** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:21 pm

Homer Jay wrote:ST matters. I remember when Cecil Fielder had like 7 HRs in ST in his first year back from Japan, and everybody was all just, "It's just ST!", then he ended up hitting 50 HRs for the first time in over a decade.

Really encouraged by Lawrie, Johnson, Alvarez, and Morrow so far. Just improvement from those four will put us on the cusp of playoffs.

And Gabe Gross hit 8 HR in ST once too.

kavan · Post #17 » by **kavan** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:35 pm

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:
kavan wrote:^ I hear that all the time, I think ST is a great indicator for team like us who is playing our young guys, maybe not for the Sox and Yanks because they are still getting the feeling for guys. I think winning is winning and there is no other way to get a feel for how our team would be other then the wins we are putting together.

Huh? If you're going to argue that Spring Training wins mean something, you're going to have to do better than "winning is winning"

SO hold on, if they shat up the place and were a terrible team in ST, that would be OK because its ST? I dont think so that would just mean we could not play ball. There are cases of players that do well that cannot carry it over that happens on every team. I am talking about the total team effort being able to put WINS on the board. You have to have good pitching good defense and a good offense. If Winning is Winning does not stand for an argument then you can be cynical all you like. I think WINS are a result of good baseball. At least it is something to set the bench mark on. More accurate then a mystical guess. I believe very strongly quote me that if we stay healthy and can play the type of ball we have in ST it will bring us wins. In ST we are dong nothing diff other than playing with a lot of subs. When the starters are on the field I think it should give us a more consistency but as it sits that maybe the worse thing to happen to us because we are doing good the way we are!

satyr9 · Post #18 » by **satyr9** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:18 pm

Oakland is 14-5 in ST. Texas is 6-16. Winning in ST can give the fans, and I'll potentially allow the team, some confidence, which in turn could help them into the regular season, but if there's a TEX fan predicting doom and gloom based on ST results or an A's fan ready to annoint them division champs based on their results, then they're totally delusional.

Winning is better than losing, but winning in ST has close to zero (and that's probably mild) direct correlation with a regular season record. Good teams can have good ST records. Bad teams can have bad ones, but the opposite is equally true and this extends across all sports and ST results.

Which doesn't mean you can't get excited by the Jays ST this year. Just get excited because of the reports about individual players and how they've looked. Get excited by the talk around the league about the team and the team's talk about themselves. None of that is proof of anything either, but those are least things you can point to and say if that continues they'll be a good team. Actually winning in ST is as close as meaningless result as there is.

RapsFanInVA · Post #19 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:26 pm

Will Jo Jo Reyes be our 5th starter? No
Will Jon Rauch and Frank Fransisco combine to lead our team in blown saves? No
Will Jayson Nix, Corey Patterson, and Juan Rivera combine for 700 ABs? No

These 3 things alone should add at least 3 wins. No reason we can't eclipse 84 if Johnson, Rasmus, and Lind perform to their ability and our bullpen performs as it should on paper.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #20 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:02 pm

kavan wrote: In ST we are dong nothing diff other than playing with a lot of subs.

And you don't see how this makes a dramatic difference in a team's record? Do you realize how bad some AAA pitchers are against major league hitters?

And, yes, they are doing things different- Pitchers might work more on one specific pitch and might make slight alterations to their delivery, and hitters might try to tinker with their swing.

If this team was 10 games under .500 in Spring I would feel exactly the same way as I do about them now, which is that they are a borderline playoff team, probably ending up with somewhere between 80 and 90 wins.