Why don't teams optimize the order each game?

[Hendrix]

I don't follow baseball a ton, and maybe teams do this a bit. But why not continually optimize the lineup every game to maximize the expected value of runs? A lot of the time there wouldn't be a huge difference (ex. Bautista would probably never move in the order).

I imagine you could tack on quite a few extra runs over the course of the year by doing that. I don't think it would be that hard to bring in an econonist to forecast wOBA by using whatever forecasting model they saw fit (ex. exponential smoothing model). Then try and find an independent variable with a correlation (ex. lhp vs. rhp, specific pitcher, etc...). And then just run the constrained optimization problem.

For example, do you really want Lind and his .615 career ops against lefties hitting cleanup against lefties? Should how he performs against RHP's (very welI) determine where he hits against LHP's? I feel like you could optimize the batting order a lot more and get more production over the course of the year.

Even if teams do this a bit, I think they could stand to do it more aggressively.

[HangTime]

This is why I wish we had Joe Maddon. The Lineup is always a surprise.

If he was with the Jays, I could see him having this kind of lineup:
1) Encarnacion power(ish)
2) Thames (gap hitter)
3) Bautista (Power)
4) Rasmus (low, Power, potential)
5) Lawrie (Power, on base, potential)
6) Escobar (on base)
7) Arencibia (low avg, Power)
8) Lind (low avg, Power)
9) Johnson (on base, power, gap hitter)

Sometimes he gets a switch hitter not to switch.
-He takes away the DH alot. (I actually like it because you can get your bench players more playing time).

Also, on defnece he'll surprise you with odd fielding positions.

[WpgPage]

Think a lot of fans would like this but it would probably negatively affect the players, moving them around all the time demoting and promoting them constantly would get into some of their heads. Plus you've got the egos to deal with as a manager. For every run that it created I think you would lose another from poor player performance.

[Schad]

Think a lot of fans would like this but it would probably negatively affect the players, moving them around all the time demoting and promoting them constantly would get into some of their heads. Plus you've got the egos to deal with as a manager. For every run that it created I think you would lose another from poor player performance.

Really depends on the strength of the manager. Once it becomes established that the manager will shuffle the lineup on a near-constant basis, whether for good reasons (Maddon) or bad (La Russa), some of the stigma attached to being dropped in the order seems to fall away. If a manager without good control of his locker room did it, though, it would be a huge problem.

[U_Mad]

Escobar
Lawrie
Bautista
Everyone else...shuffle as you please

[Hendrix]

Think a lot of fans would like this but it would probably negatively affect the players, moving them around all the time demoting and promoting them constantly would get into some of their heads. Plus you've got the egos to deal with as a manager. For every run that it created I think you would lose another from poor player performance.

Really depends on the strength of the manager. Once it becomes established that the manager will shuffle the lineup on a near-constant basis, whether for good reasons (Maddon) or bad (La Russa), some of the stigma attached to being dropped in the order seems to fall away. If a manager without good control of his locker room did it, though, it would be a huge problem.

Additionally, if we are working under the assumption that certain players would be upset about being "demoted" (thought that's not the correct term here imo), wouldn't other players be equally happy about being promoted? For example, if Lind were upset about batting in the 9 hole against lefties, wouldn't Encarncion be equally happy about hitting cleanup? Regardless, I don't think the assumption that players are going to be upset is true after you determine that it is the norm, and it's for the sake of improving the club.

I don't think ball players are stupid. If you justify it properly and show the players the resoning behind it shouldn't be a problem. Is Lind (or whoever) going to really not understand that his .615ops isn't sufficient to hit cleanup, and it is better for the team to have someone else there?

I think you are right Schad that it wouldn't take too long to get use to it once you establish that there will be constant changes. It seems like the stigma of being demoted/promoted or w/e is wrapped up in the archaic paradigm of baseball, and some of the old timers may be reluctant to change. Imo it wouldn't take long to adapt to the new way once you establish a paradigm shift.

[Randle McMurphy]

Joe Maddon optimizes the order all the time. It's one of the reasons the Rays have been as good as they are, in my opinion. It's, of course, way easier to do when you have a bunch of unestablished major leaguers who are better served in platoons.

Then there are managers like Cito (and to a lesser extent, John Farrell) who don't want to upset the established order. That leads to situations like Adam Lind continuing to bat cleanup despite the fact that he's a glorified platoon player who hacks at everything in sight.

[baulderdash77]

Some players can't take it. Remember that the difference between a good hitter and an average hitter is 1 hit every 4 games. So if players aren't in a really good rhythm it can be hard on them.

I think there's 2 schools of thought on this one and it can be a fine line between managing effectively and over managing.

Remember too that most benches to draw from only have a backup catcher, a pinch runner type, a utility type and a pinch hitter (big bat) type. So there's not always a lot of player flexibility to make all these moves.

[Hamyltowne]

The baseball season is just too long. Teams receive three days off a month. (Most workers get two days off a week.) It's a game of pace and rhythm. Very difficult to maintain both with constant fluctuations in the batting order.

Our line-up is deep, anyway. One through nine, we're good.

[Homer Jay]

Remember what happened with Jeter in NY last year. The public meltdown as Jeter had always had the right to pick his spot in the lineup? Girardi took that away and Jeter went nuclear on the team in the press.

Player's egos can be hard to manage at the best of times. Some managers are great at it, Cito and Torre are good examples, and some are not. Maddon gets away with it, as other than Longoria his players are not really stars yet.

[Hendrix]

Remember what happened with Jeter in NY last year. The public meltdown as Jeter had always had the right to pick his spot in the lineup? Girardi took that away and Jeter went nuclear on the team in the press.

Player's egos can be hard to manage at the best of times. Some managers are great at it, Cito and Torre are good examples, and some are not. Maddon gets away with it, as other than Longoria his players are not really stars yet.

That is why I mentioned that being happy/angry about being promoted/demoted is wrapped up in the archaic ways of baseball. Players seem to develop unjustified entitlement issues. There's no rational reason for Lind to throw a hissy fit for not being able to hit cleanup with a .615ops against lefties. Any reason he'd be upset about it would be because he's been told he's better than he is (by being allowed to hit cleanup).

If you establish that you are going to be optimizing the lineup every game for the betterment of the team, and that is the way it's going to be, I don't think players would develop those entitlement issues. They would be accurately placed in the order based on their ability, not unjustifiably put too high or too low on any given day. As Schad said, the stigma of the order falls awa once you establish that is the way you are going to do things.