interesting spring training fact

Kapono · Post #1 » by **Kapono** » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:07 pm

"The Jays' crazy ST has continued to intrigue me (and I am procrastinating at work...shhhh), so I dug some more. The only 3 teams that have had a .705+ winning percentage in spring training over the last 10 years are the '09 Angels, '09 Yankees and '10 Rays.

'09 Angels 26-8 -> 97-65 Won Division
'09 Yankees 24-10 -> 103-59 Won Division + WS
'10 Rays 20-8 -> 96-66 Won Division + AL

The Jays just need to win 1! of their final 6 ST games to assure themselves of a .705+ winning percentage... "

from another forum

Santoki · Post #2 » by **Santoki** » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:24 pm

This Spring Training has been great from a business standpoint. It's going to create a bit of buzz and if the Jays can have a hot start, they'll keep those attendance numbers up for a little while longer than usual.

After the Darvish/Fielder pipe dream, a lot of people (myself included) were pretty down about this team going into this year - we simmered our expectations. But now those expectations are back up and I'm not sure that's what's best for this team. They really needed to fly under the radar, but they're not going to, especially if they have a hot start. So some good and some bad, but I'm still inclined to believe they don't have enough consistency from all sides to get it done this year.

James_Raptors · Post #3 » by **James_Raptors** » Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:11 pm

22-4 certainly looks nice on paper and it's better for morale than seeing 4-22 but it's still spring training.
I love wins though, regardless of when they come. Keep winning I say!

Jimmy King · Post #4 » by **Jimmy King** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 12:01 am

Well, I guess that trend will be ending.

baulderdash77 · Post #5 » by **baulderdash77** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 12:10 am

The Jays are at .846 That would give them the best ST by any team in over 10 years. This team is on a hot streak right now and they're feeling confident. It can very easily run into the regular season.

James_Raptors · Post #6 » by **James_Raptors** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:00 am

baulderdash77 wrote:The Jays are at .846 That would give them the best ST by any team in over 10 years. This team is on a hot streak right now and they're feeling confident. It can very easily run into the regular season.

We can hope!
I'm not going to be a debbie downer and make any negative predictions.
i'm a Jays fan and want this team to win badly! If pre-season success gives them the confidence to carry it over to the regular season that would be fantastic.

flatjacket1 · Post #7 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:38 am

James_Raptors wrote:
baulderdash77 wrote:The Jays are at .846 That would give them the best ST by any team in over 10 years. This team is on a hot streak right now and they're feeling confident. It can very easily run into the regular season.

We can hope!
I'm not going to be a debbie downer and make any negative predictions.
i'm a Jays fan and want this team to win badly! If pre-season success gives them the confidence to carry it over to the regular season that would be fantastic.

I think you have the right approach. Winning is better than losing but all and all its ST, and the record is a better reflection of a deep farm system than a talented 25 man. Typically the last couple innings look like a AA game apart from pitchers (typically they use spring to use their normal pitchers + the odd tryout) like how we had a guy from A ball closing out our game 2 days ago.

Again though, winning is better than losing.

Anatomize · Post #8 » by **Anatomize** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:53 am

To put in perspective, this is spring training.

Facing squads made up of prospects, call-up talent, guys looking for a roster spot isn't exactly who the Jays will be facing come regular season.

If people are getting their hopes up from spring training.. boy I tell ya

The best thing to do in Spring training is just watch for signs.. did a guy retool his swing? Did someone cut weight (Cecil)? Is someone who has been struggling the past few years showing improved signs coming into this year? So on and so forth.. you take that and project whether they'll be able to carry it over into the regular season, but trying to project wins/losses in spring training to = success in the regular season is just a terrible idea

flatjacket1 · Post #9 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:56 am

Anatomize wrote:If people are getting their hopes up from spring training.. boy I tell ya

Who is more likely to win? A team who goes 0-25 in spring or 25-0. There is a correlation between spring performance and season performance, it is just a small correlation however.

LLJ · Post #10 » by **LLJ** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:17 am

Anatomize wrote:To put in perspective, this is spring training.

Facing squads made up of prospects, call-up talent, guys looking for a roster spot isn't exactly who the Jays will be facing come regular season.

If people are getting their hopes up from spring training.. boy I tell ya

The best thing to do in Spring training is just watch for signs.. did a guy retool his swing? Did someone cut weight (Cecil)? Is someone who has been struggling the past few years showing improved signs coming into this year? So on and so forth.. you take that and project whether they'll be able to carry it over into the regular season, but trying to project wins/losses in spring training to = success in the regular season is just a terrible idea

It goes both ways too. The Jays are running out their prospects and call up talent too. It doesn't indicate much about the team we'll roll out in the regular season, but it does show that we might got some good players to call up in emergencies and for depth.

tecumseh18 · Post #11 » by **tecumseh18** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:30 am

There is a potential self-fulfilling prophesy aspect of being World Champions (ST division).

And that is that AA starts to think that we're actually not that far away, and now is the time to cash in some prospects for another legit starter (we really can't count on two of Cecil and McGowan and Drabek to carry us into the post-season), or vastly overpay for a year of Oswalt.

I don't think he will, especially with Hutchison so close, but ya never know.

Parataxis · Post #12 » by **Parataxis** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:39 am

tecumseh18 wrote:There is a potential self-fulfilling prophesy aspect of being World Champions (ST division).

And that is that AA starts to think that we're actually not that far away, and now is the time to cash in some prospects for another legit starter (we really can't count on two of Cecil and McGowan and Drabek to carry us into the post-season), or vastly overpay for a year of Oswalt.

I don't think he will, especially with Hutchinson so close, but ya never know.

If he's looking at a one year contract, I have no problems with a cash overpay for Oswalt. Not my money.

flatjacket1 · Post #13 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:41 am

Parataxis wrote:If he's looking at a one year contract, I have no problems with a cash overpay for Oswalt. Not my money.

I would argue that both McGowan and Drabek are more competent than Oswalt. Bring him to the dome and see if he can pitch.

Randle McMurphy · Post #14 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:14 am

Well, we better pull out all the stops to win that one game then. The season depends on it.

Randle McMurphy · Post #15 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:16 am

flatjacket1 wrote:
Parataxis wrote:If he's looking at a one year contract, I have no problems with a cash overpay for Oswalt. Not my money.

I would argue that both McGowan and Drabek are more competent than Oswalt. Bring him to the dome and see if he can pitch.

I'll take Oswalt. We're still not even sure McGowan and Drabek can handle a full season at this level.

Santoki · Post #16 » by **Santoki** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 7:30 am

I'm glad this is being brought up because it's the most concerning aspect of this team. Are we going to get anything out of the 4 and 5 spot?