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How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 6:55 pm
by LittleOzzy
How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:12 pm
by baulderdash77
I think it's 88-89. We're going to be in the hunt.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:26 pm
by stopnpop
93-69, Jays making it to the ALCS!!!
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:37 pm
by Randle McMurphy
81. The division is far too tough and the Jays have too many pitching question marks to expect much more than that.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:00 pm
by Wo1verine
Randle McMurphy wrote:81. The division is far too tough and the Jays have too many pitching question marks to expect much more than that.
That sounds about right! SP is going to kill us!
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:16 pm
by Lateral Quicks
Well, before the first 3 innings of today's game, I was going to say 86-90. But now, I figure we'll be lucky to win 50. But I chose 85-89 just for kicks.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:41 pm
by Raps in 4
Hoping: 90+
Realistic: 80-85
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:30 am
by JoeyBats
I can honestly see this team get 90-93 wins this season.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:34 am
by Brinbe
80-85
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:43 am
by K1NG
90.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:49 am
by RapsFanInVA
Need 82 to win some money. Realistically expect 85.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:27 am
by Schad
Going to be optimistic and say 85 or 86.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:28 am
by Sifu
88 games
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:29 am
by s e n s i
87-92
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 2:12 am
by Nocturne
I would be surprised to see them get more than 85 wins. We have so many question marks in our starting rotation. The only one who's proven himself is Romero. I like Morrow but I'm not confident about his consistency until I see it this season. Alvarez I like but again, he could have a bad sophomore year like Morrow did last year. It's possible that everyone reaches their potential this year but I would consider that to be a surprise rather than it being expected.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:59 am
by sule
89 games +/- 2
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:04 am
by Parataxis
88 or 89. We'll squeak into the second wildcard.
Especially now with the injuries to the BoSox, I'm liking our chances.
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Fri Apr 6, 2012 6:45 am
by SharoneWright
92.
0.567901234568
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Sat Apr 7, 2012 12:10 am
by Dr Positivity
84
Re: How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?
Posted: Sat Apr 7, 2012 1:13 am
by flatjacket1
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/4/5/ ... on-playersGreat read by an excellent poster over at BBB.
He predicts Lawrie to have around 4.7 WAR and still statistically we are a 81-83 win team (compared to last season's 79 "true talent" wins). Still an improvement but sorry to burst people's bubbles.
Here is what he posts in the comments section:
Ironically, I hadn’t really got around to really analyzing the results. My first thought is, let’s look at last year. 2430 total wins (one game wasn't played, so actually 2429 but anyway), replacement level of 44 wins means 1110 team wins above replacement. Actual total fWAR = 1164, so each WAR is worth 0.953 wins. Jays had 20.4+12.5 = 32.9 fWAR. So that should be around 31 wins above replacement or 31+44=75 wins total. So the Jays punched above their heads somewhat, and really, just to get to 81 wins these year they should need another 6 WAR above last year. Your total doesnt include bench guys, so that probably bumps it a little. Pitching is a still a weakness (I was thinking about doing the same exercise for pitching as well). So I think I’m sticking with 81-83.
81 wins implies 38.8 fWAR needed. That sounds about right. I’m not seeing a reason to go higher at this point