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JPA's defense

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Kapono
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JPA's defense 

Post#1 » by Kapono » Fri Apr 6, 2012 3:31 am

Yeah its early but you can tell already he worked hard in the offseason to improve his defense. He made a great play stopping Choo from scoring at the plate. Threw out Choo stealing 2nd as well. His blocking looks to be A LOT better. He had a few nice snap throws to 1st base to keep the runner in check.

And he handled the pitching staff really good today. Bullpen pitched 11 scoreless innings and a lot of it had to do with JPAs play calling.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#2 » by baulderdash77 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 3:38 am

He's been getting a lot of credit tonight and through spring training on his defense. His blocking skills in particular look so much better. He made several game saving blocks and of course the game saving stop of Choo.

The biggest thing that he did all day though (they showed it on the broadcast) was walk over and calm Ricky Romero down between the 2nd and 3rd innings. That's the kind of leadership you look for in a catcher.

He's going to do absolutely everything in his power to get Travis D'Arnaud traded this year. Besides being a media darling & the consummate teammate, he's improving his deficiencies on the field.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#3 » by flatjacket1 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 3:44 am

It's too early to tell. Sure it passes the eye test but until we get some quantifiable statistics (even simple stats like CS% and PB) I'm not going to jump the gun. It is also worth noting that the grueling catching position tends to affect players more later in the season. Opening day, a rested, good catcher should be able to make those plays. We should check back in a few months.

So far he has looked great though. It would be nice if he could raise his value.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#4 » by Hamyltowne » Fri Apr 6, 2012 2:18 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:It's too early to tell. Sure it passes the eye test but until we get some quantifiable statistics (even simple stats like CS% and PB) I'm not going to jump the gun. It is also worth noting that the grueling catching position tends to affect players more later in the season. Opening day, a rested, good catcher should be able to make those plays. We should check back in a few months.

So far he has looked great though. It would be nice if he could raise his value.

That's exactly right. Even if he were to have a great year behind the plate, it just makes that much bigger a return for the trade we ultimately make.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#5 » by Skin Blues » Fri Apr 6, 2012 3:53 pm

CS% and PB are useless for judging a catcher. If he's horrible at throwing runners out then everybody is going to try to steal, and he'll get a disproportionately high amount of bad base stealers making attempts. If he's really good at throwing runners out, only the best guys will attempt to steal. It also depends on the pitcher. Guys with long windups and/or bad pickoff moves are prone to allowing SBs, and will make a catcher's CS% much worse. Passed balls are also a bad way to judge because there are so few of them each year, so each one has a huge impact on the overall number. They depend on the pitcher; does he throw a lot of pitches on the border of the passed ball/wild pitch divide? Did his mis-read a few signs and cross-up the catcher? Does he throw knuckleballs? The official scorer also can introduce a lot of bias here, because there's no strict definition of passed ball vs wild pitch. And passed ball totals also don't give any information on how well he blocks balls in the dirt, or calls a game, or frames pitches, etc. The "eye test" is much better than using CS% and PB.

And it's such a simple task to measure the time it takes the ball to go get to second base from the time it hits the catcher's glove. I don't know why that data isn't readily available. Combine that with pitch location data and throwing accuracy and it should be very easy to measure a catcher's skill at throwing out would-be base stealers. I'm sure this is already done somewhere, in some way or another.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#6 » by flatjacket1 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:06 pm

Skin Blues wrote:. Passed balls are also a bad way to judge because there are so few of them each year, so each one has a huge impact on the overall number.


Just like Errors or HR for some players. I'm not saying I'm going to use either of those stats, I just included a few basic ones which will tell a better story on how JPA plays. What you said is partly true, but not to the extend you make it seem.

If JPA leads the league in PB and WP and has the lowest CS% among catchers then he is a bad defensive catcher. He was close in 2 of those categories last season.

Its better than the eye test. A passed ball (you even said this yourself) happens so seldom that you would need a much larger sample size to find one.

All I'm saying is that I'm not sold on his defense yet. For that individual game, I'll admit it was great but its a grueling 162 game season for one of the most demanding positions on the diamond. Keith Law still from time to time mentions that JPA might not be able to stay behind the plate (does not represent my view).
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#7 » by Lateral Quicks » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:17 pm

Definitely liked what I saw on the defensive side from JP yesterday. But the 1-7 with 3 K's is a concern. He needs to improve his plate discipline to get his OBP up to a respectable level.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#8 » by Hendrix » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:24 pm

I'm not really sure how useful defensive catching stats are.

But, yeah. He looked a lot better last night. If that is the new and improved JPA than it makes things pretty interesting with D'arnaud, and Perez. Is one in the hand worth two in the bush?
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#9 » by Hamyltowne » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:59 pm

Skin Blues wrote:And it's such a simple task to measure the time it takes the ball to go get to second base from the time it hits the catcher's glove. I don't know why that data isn't readily available.

According to Mike Sweeney, a catcher has two seconds from glove to glove. At least that's what he said on MLB Network, last week, during one of their Diamond Demos.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#10 » by Anatomize » Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:44 pm

To those of you who watched him consistently in ST, how is his throw to second?

I notice unlike most catchers last season, he has a real hard time springing up to make the throw, he always seems to throw off his knees erratically instead of squaring up in time to make a strong throw.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#11 » by Anatomize » Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:45 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:Definitely liked what I saw on the defensive side from JP yesterday. But the 1-7 with 3 K's is a concern. He needs to improve his plate discipline to get his OBP up to a respectable level.


This game has power hitters who strike out a lot, get used to it; there are a variety of hitters. JPA is a low average ball masher. He should only continue to get better at launching em with time, but his average will continue to hurt in doing so, he swings for the fences.
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Re: Re: JPA's defense 

Post#12 » by Raps in 4 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:51 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:Definitely liked what I saw on the defensive side from JP yesterday. But the 1-7 with 3 K's is a concern. He needs to improve his plate discipline to get his OBP up to a respectable level.


Half our team had the same statline.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#13 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Apr 6, 2012 6:33 pm

Hamyltowne wrote:According to Mike Sweeney, a catcher has two seconds from glove to glove. At least that's what he said on MLB Network, last week, during one of their Diamond Demos.


That's the average time(it's actually closer to 1.9), if it takes you longer than 2 seconds you have no business being a MLB catcher. Back in his prime, I recall times of 1.6-1.7 for Pudge and I'm sure Molina on the Cardinals is close to that as well.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#14 » by Griff83 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 7:29 pm

Hendrix wrote:I'm not really sure how useful defensive catching stats are.

But, yeah. He looked a lot better last night. If that is the new and improved JPA than it makes things pretty interesting with D'arnaud, and Perez. Is one in the hand worth two in the bush?

You didnt even mention AJ Jiminez who might be the best combination of hitting ability and defence we have in a catcher.

If JP improves we certainly will have a decision to make with some of these catchers.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#15 » by flatjacket1 » Fri Apr 6, 2012 9:17 pm

Griff83 wrote:
Hendrix wrote:I'm not really sure how useful defensive catching stats are.

But, yeah. He looked a lot better last night. If that is the new and improved JPA than it makes things pretty interesting with D'arnaud, and Perez. Is one in the hand worth two in the bush?

You didnt even mention AJ Jiminez who might be the best combination of hitting ability and defence we have in a catcher.

If JP improves we certainly will have a decision to make with some of these catchers.


I think if we look at TODAY who would be the better catcher, ceiling aside, I think we have a contest. Even the toughest minor league equivalency calculators (which are for fun, but are heavily stat and park factor driven) give D'Arnaud's 2011 and JPA's 2011, a minor league equivalency calculator gave D'Arnaud a stat line of .262/.310/.434. The only number in which JPA outperformed was actually slugging and it was only by .004 (He slugged .438), not even mentioning defense (which D'Arnaud > JPA IMO) I think D'Arnaud TODAY is the better offensive catcher, and he is 3 years younger.

Just a quote on age:
Nearly a quarter-century ago, Bill James addressed this very point in the 1987 edition of his Abstract:

Suppose that you have a 20-year-old player and a 21-year-old player of the same ability as hitters; let’s say that each hits about .265 with ten home runs. How much difference is there in the expected career home run totals for the two players?”

As best I can estimate, the 20-year-old player can be expected to hit about 61% more home runs in his career. That’s right—61%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15295

Of course that is even at a younger age but age means a lot.

Please note: This is a very opinion driven post and a lot of things are debatable. I know that. The minor league equivalency calculator itself is just a fun tool to see what prospects can do facing different pitching in different parks and is rarely a good way of projecting future performance. I'm posting this whole thread just so people can see why/how I view things the way I do.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#16 » by Al_Oliver » Sat Apr 7, 2012 6:57 pm

brutal throwing error today by JPA cost Morrow. luckily Lawrie picked him up...
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#17 » by Deron2 » Sat Apr 7, 2012 8:16 pm

Could we see D'arnaud switch positions? I know it probably to late for him to switch, but could he switch to first base? Its just a thought.
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#18 » by Skin Blues » Sat Apr 7, 2012 9:36 pm

Not a chance of d'Arnaud switching positions. He's better defensively than JPA, so why would he be the one to switch?
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#19 » by Al_Oliver » Sat Apr 7, 2012 9:47 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Not a chance of d'Arnaud switching positions. He's better defensively than JPA, so why would he be the one to switch?


he wouldn't. it's asinine
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Re: JPA's defense 

Post#20 » by flatjacket1 » Sun Apr 8, 2012 12:05 am

Deron2 wrote:Could we see D'arnaud switch positions? I know it probably to late for him to switch, but could he switch to first base? Its just a thought.


It is possible in the rare event his bat is "too good" for catcher. Since catchers are limited to only around 120 games TOPS* a season (due to days off from back to backs, long series + injuries are common), sometimes the uber catchers are moved to other positions to keep their bat in the lineup.

A good example of this was Lawrie, but it's worth noting that Lawrie had below average defense behind the plate and D'Arnaud's is above average, so it was a much easier decision to move him.

Right now I consider catcher our 2nd weakest position, so I don't see why we would move D'Arnaud unless what I stated above happened. He has a chance to be a perennial All-Star behind the plate with the rare mix of defense and bat.

JPA had a terrible mistake today that cost us 2 runs, but again its only 1 game and no real statistics are out yet so it's unfair to make any judgements.

* a few exceptions

EDIT: Well 15 catchers played more than 120 games last season but the year before that only 11 did. Either way they play less games that say 3B. (21 players played more than 120 games in 2010)
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