Is anyone else concerned with our pitching?

Hendrix · Post #1 » by **Hendrix** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:28 pm

Specifically our starting pitchers?

All our pitchers together have combined for 0.3 WAR through 153 innings (27th in the MLB) w/ a 4.99fip (28th in the MLB). It seems like they have been pretty lucky to date to have a .239babip (by far the lowest in the MLB) which has lead to them having a mid-pack ERA of 3.94, and thus us being able to win some games

When you look through the individual stats it seems like there's a decent amount of stuff to be nervous about no? Morrows 4.05 k/9. Giving up as a team 1.41hr/9. Alverez's 3.7k/9. Drabek, and Morrow putting up really 84%, and 89 LOB%'s. I have no idea how much/little production we'll get from the 5 slot. Ricky has probably been the best so far, but it's not like 5.9k's/9, and .231babip is super confidence inspiring either.

Anyways, does anyone have any thoughts on this? To me it seems like we'll need the pitchers to get it together quickly or we'll be in trouble once luck starts to even out.

flatjacket1 · Post #2 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:41 pm

Yes, this is the one reason we won't make playoffs. I expect a top 5 offense, but pitching this year should be low. I think the development value with our young rotation will be astronomical though, Drabek gets time to work against MLB hitters, same with Alvarez and Hutch, while Morrow learns how to throw offspeed stuff and Romero (although he will suffer some regression) will once again make a case that he can be an ace in the AL (b)EAST.

I think this is a great year to watch, but I wouldn't expect playoffs with our current rotation. I would also be against adding a top flight pitcher at the cost of prospects, I don't feel we are in a good enough position where a #1 or #2 could launch us into playoff contention.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #3 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:49 pm

A little concerned, but no more concerned than I was at the beginning of the season. I'd like to see a couple more starts by everyone before becoming extremely worried about it.

BigLeagueChew · Post #4 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:49 pm

I think we're showcasing Hutch for a trade, similar to last year with Zach Stewart. We need a #4-5 starter but our bullpen is fine.

Post #5 » by **J.Kim** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:52 pm

I'd give it a bit more time. Sample sizes are way too low at this point.

Indiana Jones · Post #6 » by **Indiana Jones** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:54 pm

i think our starting pitching will have a roller coaster type season with a lot of highs and some pretty bad lows. but i'd rather see the current five, especially the 3, 4 and 5 guys fight through it and gain confidence through experience.

i don't expect our starting rotation to lead the league in a lot of statistical categories, but i think they can still win. if we can get close to the playoffs with this type of rotation, i wouldn't be surprised if AA opened up the coffers in the offseason to add a top of rotation type guy to complement the current group.

no worries man, everything is going to be okay.

Hendrix · Post #7 » by **Hendrix** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:07 pm

J.Kim wrote:I'd give it a bit more time. Sample sizes are way too low at this point.

As a team they've pitched 153 innings for a 0.3WAR. For comparison sake Cecil last year put up 0.4 WAR in 123 innings. That seems like a somewhat decent sample size in aggregate as that 153 innings is almost a full season for a starting pitcher. Of course a full season for a SP is probably not a huge sample either as SP's tend to vary from year to year.

I didn't have much expectations for our starters coming into the season, but they've actually underperformed my expectations to date. I really didn't expect 4k/9 from Morrow for example.

flatjacket1 · Post #8 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:20 pm

Indiana Jones wrote: i wouldn't be surprised if AA opened up the coffers in the offseason to add a top of rotation type guy to complement the current group.

no worries man, everything is going to be okay.

I agree, there is a lot of pitcher in FA this off season. Maybe we nab one.

Post #9 » by **J.Kim** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:29 pm

Hendrix wrote:
J.Kim wrote:I'd give it a bit more time. Sample sizes are way too low at this point.

As a team they've pitched 153 innings for a 0.3WAR. For comparison sake Cecil last year put up 0.4 WAR in 123 innings. That seems like a somewhat decent sample size in aggregate as that 153 innings is almost a full season for a starting pitcher. Of course a full season for a SP is probably not a huge sample either as SP's tend to vary from year to year.

I didn't have much expectations for our starters coming into the season, but they've actually underperformed my expectations to date. I really didn't expect 4k/9 from Morrow for example.

But one pitcher's performance does not correlate to another pitcher's performance. You can't just lump them all up into one hypothetical pitcher and determine that it's a statistically significant sample size for each individual pitcher. I'd give it until mid-May to see if there's actually a trend to what's going on right now.

Parataxis · Post #10 » by **Parataxis** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:33 pm

Our pitchers are pitching into GBs. I'll happily take a low strikeout rate in exchange for a high GB% - especially when it looks like they've been able to get the Ks when they need them.

It's not the greatest starting 5, but I think they're doing better than you give them credit for.

flatjacket1 · Post #11 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:36 pm

Parataxis wrote:Our pitchers are pitching into GBs. I'll happily take a low strikeout rate in exchange for a high GB% - especially when it looks like they've been able to get the Ks when they need them.

It's not the greatest starting 5, but I think they're doing better than you give them credit for.

I agree with this. Put the ball in play and win the games with good ol' defense.

Avp115 · Post #12 » by **Avp115** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:42 pm

Hendrix wrote:
It seems like they have been pretty lucky to date to have a .239babip (by far the lowest in the MLB) which has lead to them having a mid-pack ERA of 3.94, and thus us being able to win some games

I don't know if I'd call it lucky. Our defense has just been great so far. As long as we minimize the opposing HRs, our staff continues to get ground balls, and our defense continues to play great, I have no worries, and we should win plenty of games.

RapsFanInVA · Post #13 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:53 pm

I wouldn't call it concern. I was expecting ~85 wins this season and still think that's where we'll end up. However the starting pitching will probably be the reason we can't get to 90 wins and a possible WC spot.

Randle McMurphy · Post #14 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:18 pm

The rotation AA has formed here isn't anywhere near good enough to get this team into the playoffs. If that's what your expectation is for this team, then yes, I'd be greatly concerned with it. It's certainly not a bad idea from a developmental standpoint to see what some of these guys have this year, though.

Avenger · Post #15 » by **Avenger** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:37 pm

I'm not saying this rotation is playoff calibre but looking at even peripheral numbers from 15 games is beyond ridiculous.

I'm in the minority here but i think this staff is good enough to keep us competietive through August and September as long as we fill in atleast one of the two big holes in the lineup (LF and 1B). There's not much starting pitching on the market but there are good bats available, so i'd look to fix that before looking at another starter

Dr Positivity · Post #16 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:47 pm

I don't know if "concerned" is the right word because I don't see this team coming close to the playoffs.

baulderdash77 · Post #17 » by **baulderdash77** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:59 pm

Parataxis wrote:Our pitchers are pitching into GBs. I'll happily take a low strikeout rate in exchange for a high GB% - especially when it looks like they've been able to get the Ks when they need them.

It's not the greatest starting 5, but I think they're doing better than you give them credit for.

The other thing to consider is that the Blue Jays defense is statistically the most efficient in the game. (0.745 vs a league average of 0.700. Boston and New York are 3rd worst and worst respectively) With the kind of infield defense that we have, it's a good strategy to throw a sinker and pitch to contact compared to trying to be tricky.

Brandon Morrow is having his best season ever and his strikeout rate is down. But his GB% is up to 48% from 36% last year. You can't take FIP into account when you're pitching exclusively in order to get your fielding into play- it's by definition not fielding independent.

Hendrix · Post #18 » by **Hendrix** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:35 am

Avp115 wrote:
I don't know if I'd call it lucky. Our defense has just been great so far. As long as we minimize the opposing HRs, our staff continues to get ground balls, and our defense continues to play great, I have no worries, and we should win plenty of games.

No matter how good your defense is, or how good you are at getting grounders, you are never going to get a babip of .239. That's luck. If you could keep that up for a whole season it would shatter records. The lowest babip by far for a team last year was .265, and that team was 29th in the league in gb%.

whysoserious · Post #19 » by **whysoserious** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:10 am

I think it's more of something to keep an eye on than to say we should be concerned at this point.

I like that they're actually pitching to contact. For a guy like Morrow this is very important. His stuff is so good that he he used to just try and throw it by guys, now he's actually pitching. He used to run up huge pitch counts trying to get strike outs. He's still giving up home runs and is inconsistent, but this is a solid approach.

You expect growing pains out of Alvarez. Drabek and Hutchison at this point, it's their first full season in the big leagues.

Despite the numbers, the team is 10-6 so if they're underachieving, watch out if they actually just start performing to expectations. Remember, as much as we want playoffs soon and are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, there is still growth that needs to occur.

There There · Post #20 » by **There There** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:58 am

Hendrix wrote:
Avp115 wrote:
I don't know if I'd call it lucky. Our defense has just been great so far. As long as we minimize the opposing HRs, our staff continues to get ground balls, and our defense continues to play great, I have no worries, and we should win plenty of games.

No matter how good your defense is, or how good you are at getting grounders, you are never going to get a babip of .239. That's luck. If you could keep that up for a whole season it would shatter records. The lowest babip by far for a team last year was .265, and that team was 29th in the league in gb%.

The flipside is that there is zero chance that 13% of the fly balls hit on us will continue to clear the fence

Sure we may be lucky on balls in play, but we've been very unlucky on balls in the air leaving the park.

This is why i'd agree it's too small a sample to begin worrying about.

Avenger wrote:I'm not saying this rotation is playoff calibre but looking at even peripheral numbers from 15 games is beyond ridiculous.

I'm in the minority here but i think this staff is good enough to keep us competietive through August and September as long as we fill in atleast one of the two big holes in the lineup (LF and 1B). There's not much starting pitching on the market but there are good bats available, so i'd look to fix that before looking at another starter

Couldn't agree with this more.

Our starters will take their lumps, but on the whole I think they can keep us somewhat competitive, and this year will be hugely beneficial going forward if guys like Alvarez, Drabek and Hutchison figure into our long term plans