Inevitable: Lawrie no longer leads MLB in rWAR

[Hamyltowne]

By Grant Brisbee - Editor

May 17, 2012 -

Brett Lawrie is in the news right now, but for all of the wrong reasons. Here's why he might be one of the more valuable players in the league.

I visit a website called "Baseball Reference" every day. It's a database of statistics for … oh, you've heard of it. Good, good. Well, they have a regular site and a mobile site, but the way I like to use it is by mixing it with baking soda and a little water and smoking it. It gets the job done a lot quicker.

So on one of my every-five-minute swings by the site, I noticed something on the front page.



We're all thinking about Brett Lawrie because he acted like Tuco from Breaking Bad in front of a few thousand people and some cameras. But he's one of the most valuable players in baseball according to Baseball Reference, to which I said, "Wow! I had no idea Brett Lawrie is hitting so well!" So, off to Lawrie's page!




Huh. Well, that's okay, I suppose. Especially for a 22-year-old. But maybe I made a mistake.




Well, I'll be. Maybe I was looking at ...



Nope, nope. Had it right all along. So Brett Lawrie is having something of a mediocre offensive season, but according to Baseball Reference's calculation of Wins Above Replacement, he's still one of the most valuable players in the league because of his defense. Using Defensive Runs Saved, here are the most valuable defenders in baseball this year as of Wednesday:

Rk------Player---------------Rfield

1-------Brett Lawrie--------17
2-------J.J. Hardy----------12
3-------Sean Rodriguez----11
4-------Mike Aviles---------9
5-------Yunel Escobar------8
6-------Darwin Barney------7
7-------Kelly Johnson-------7
8-------Brendan Ryan-------7
9-------Michael Bourn-------7
10-----Adrian Gonzalez-----7

(Provided by Baseball-Reference.com)


Only Hardy and Rodriguez, shortstops, are even close. And they aren't that close. Here's the list of third basemen:

Rk------Player----------------Rfield

1-------Brett Lawrie--------17
2-------Eric Sogard----------6
3-------Kyle Seager----------5
4-------Ryan Roberts--------5
5-------Jack Hannahan------5
6-------Jerry Hairston-------4
7-------Alberto Gonzalez----4
8-------Chase Headley-------3
9-------Alberto Callaspo-----3
10------Chipper Jones-------2

(Provided by Baseball-Reference.com)


These are in terms of runs saved. I'm not the stats guy around here, so I'll refer you to the best description of Defensive Runs Saved I've read. From also-not-a-stats-guy Joe Posnanski, by way of FanGraphs:

... the numbers determine (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus."

Highly technical. Elements of subjectivity. But certainly one of the most respected defensive stats freely available. And Lawrie is absolutely dominating.

Here's where I have to put the Surgeon General's Warning about sample size. Stupid bureaucratic red tape. The reports on his defense weren't always universally positive. From The Fielding Bible III:

Before his major league promotion, scouts doubted he would stick long-term at second or third, predicting an eventual move to the outfield or first base. Of course as soon as Lawrie reached Toronto, he turned into a defensive highlight reel.

It's early. Lawrie's played 336 innings in the field. That's not a huge sample. But last year in 380 innings, he saved 14 runs, which is still a superlative mark. And that bit up there about the defensive-highlight reel? Oh, man ...

Diving stop to rob Pujols

[Hamyltowne]

More:

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/5/12/3016291/brett-lawries-historic-defensive-prowess

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/05/is-brett-lawrie-one-of-the-greatest-fielders-ever/

[Hamyltowne]

^ The two articles linked above are much better reads. The writing doesn't try to be cute; instead it has a greater interest in numbers and context.

The reason I went with the SBnation article for the OP is because it had graphs that could be linked as images. Plus the GIFs at the end are familiar to many posters.

[Schad]

His defense has been nothing short of surreal. I was on the Sickels "he's too athletic/has too good of an arm to be terrible" bandwagon, back when defense was his only major shortcoming, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect him to be Brooks **** Robinson out there.

[Hamyltowne]

Brooks Robinson! I was expecting a Mike Schmidt reference, but you went out and got Brooks Robinson. Very erudite.

The BBB article I linked has a mention of his pace for 45 TZ, 70 DRS, and +8 dWAR this season. Granted, it was written 2+ weeks ago (pre-suspension, too). Still... unreal.

[torontoaces04]

I think for even the average fan (myself), anybody watching Lawrie on a daily basis can see that he's doing something special defensively at 3rd base. In nearly 20 years of watching baseball, I've never seen anyone play the position that way, covering that amount of ground, with that type of arm.

I appreciate this thread because it's been a rough few days for the team, and an underwhelming offensive start to the year for Lawrie, so things like this can often be forgotten.

Brett's a special player. In the years to come, when the bat comes around, and stays, we're looking at an MVP candidate.

Schad, (or anyone else who knows) when the Jays shift where Lawrie plays short RF...Does the shift skew his dWAR numbers, making them seem better than they are?

[limegameboy]

Do we have a guy who in his prime hitting season could be a 10 WAR?

[Duffman100]

I've haven't read either article (at work) but how do these advanced defensive statistics account for massive defensive shifts?

If the Jays shift their defense more drastically than, say, the Orioles, does that boost Lawrie's perceived defensive impact compared to his Baltimore equivalent?

[Modern_epic]

I've haven't read either article (at work) but how do these advanced defensive statistics account for massive defensive shifts?

If the Jays shift their defense more drastically than, say, the Orioles, does that boost Lawrie's perceived defensive impact compared to his Baltimore equivalent?

This was a topic of discussion on The Book blog (a prominent sabermetric site) recently, specifically about Lawrie.

It certainly effects it, but it is hard to say how much. BRef's rWAR uses DRS for defence. DRS counts the shift in some manner, but it is unclear exactly how they deal with it.

Lawrie has a considerably lower Fangraph's WAR, because fWAR uses UZR for defence. Using UZR Lawrie only looks like a gold glover instead of a historically great player. UZR throws out any defensive play involving the shift, which is a better idea than treating it as normal play, but means if Lawrie makes a good play when shifted, UZR ignores it all together.

[distracted]

This was a topic of discussion on The Book blog (a prominent sabermetric site) recently, specifically about Lawrie.

It certainly effects it, but it is hard to say how much. BRef's rWAR uses DRS for defence. DRS counts the shift in some manner, but it is unclear exactly how they deal with it.

Lawrie has a considerably lower Fangraph's WAR, because fWAR uses UZR for defence. Using UZR Lawrie only looks like a gold glover instead of a historically great player. UZR throws out any defensive play involving the shift, which is a better idea than treating it as normal play, but means if Lawrie makes a good play when shifted, UZR ignores it all together.

I think a lot of his defensive value this year has come when employing the shift. He's gunned down guys from pretty deep, and a lot of them were quick throws after charging at the ball. It may be because the jays haven't used the shift as often in the past as this year, but I can't remember the shift ever taking away so many sure singles (some of them that were hit soft enough that they should have been sure singles even with a shift).

[J-Roc]

Subjectively, Lawrie has that showmanship that makes every play look spectacular.

[torontoaces04]

Subjectively, Lawrie has that showmanship that makes every play look spectacular.

At first, I read "showmanship" as "sportsmanship" HAHAHAHA!!!

[flatjacket1]

Lawrie is right around where I expected him offensively, and defensively he looks to be really special. I think the shift plays a part in the numbers (more assists and putouts) but I still think he is likely true talent above average.

[vaff87]

His defense has been nothing short of surreal. I was on the Sickels "he's too athletic/has too good of an arm to be terrible" bandwagon, back when defense was his only major shortcoming, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect him to be Brooks **** Robinson out there.

So is it fair to assume Lawrie and Hech could make up one of the best defensive left sides of the infield in MLB history, or is that getting too far ahead of myself?

[flatjacket1]

His defense has been nothing short of surreal. I was on the Sickels "he's too athletic/has too good of an arm to be terrible" bandwagon, back when defense was his only major shortcoming, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect him to be Brooks **** Robinson out there.

So is it fair to assume Lawrie and Hech could make up one of the best defensive left sides of the infield in MLB history, or is that getting too far ahead of myself?

Assuming Hech's AAA numbers mean something, I'd say they may be quite talented offensively as well too.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yeah, Lawrie is playing defense like he's Scott Rolen out there. Kind of ridiculous. Imagine if he starts hitting to his potential while playing this kind of defense...he'd be a MVP caliber player.

[J.Kim]

Yeah, Lawrie is playing defense like he's Scott Rolen out there. Kind of ridiculous. Imagine if he starts hitting to his potential while playing this kind of defense...he'd be a MVP caliber player.

By these numbers it seems he's making Scott Rolen look like E5 in comparison...

With his range and athletic ability anyone wonder whether he could have stuck at 2B?

[distracted]

Yeah, Lawrie is playing defense like he's Scott Rolen out there. Kind of ridiculous. Imagine if he starts hitting to his potential while playing this kind of defense...he'd be a MVP caliber player.

By these numbers it seems he's making Scott Rolen look like E5 in comparison...

With his range and athletic ability anyone wonder whether he could have stuck at 2B?

I don't think you know the proper abbreviation for short stop...

[Hamyltowne]

Do we have a guy who in his prime hitting season could be a 10 WAR?

We do.

I don't know about 10 WAR, but definitely MVP-caliber WAR.

[J.Kim]

Do we have a guy who in his prime hitting season could be a 10 WAR?

We do.

I don't know about 10 WAR, but definitely MVP-caliber WAR.

If his bat picks up to even anywhere close to the level of last year, he just might put up 10 WAR THIS season (at the rate that he's going... if we're going by Baseball Reference)