Buy or sell, sink or swim: AA's deadline dilemma

[dagger]

It's almost July 1 and the big picture is as murky as ever. The Jays are last in the East, but with a record above .500 and within striking distance of a wildcard. The offence is humming along, especially since Lawrie and Rasmus went to the top of the order. The relief pitching has stabilized. It's just the starters who are causing a whole lot of grief, some of their own making and some just bad injury luck. We all know EE and KJ are free agents, and Darren Oliver among others surely would get interest from a contender.

AA's decision - buy or sell - has never been tougher.

Some additional things to consider.

While Drabek is out for the season, Morrow, Hutchinson and Santos might return at different points. Morrow has to be a likely, probably for mid-August. He needs 3-4 more weeks, let's say through July 21, to get pain-free from his oblique injury, then three weeks to toss, throw from the mound and do some rehab starts. Hutchinson, if he doesn't have a relapse, looks like Sept 1. He's not going to do anything throwing for 4-6 weeks. If we take six weeks as the likely outcome, he'll be in a position to start the same process as Morrow around the first week of August. Santos is a crap shoot, but if he can get past his injury this time, he could be available for the ML roster by mid-to-late July.

The offence, as good as it has been, can be even better. JPA is not hitting particularly well. He's hitting .219 with zero homers in his last 10 games. He's struck out 12 times in his last 32 at bats. He's gotten on base 11 times. You could trade him for pitching, plug in d'Arnaud, and there's almost no risk Travis would do worse what JPA is delivering. None.

Shi Davidi is hinting Lind is coming back, that Farrell wants his left hand power now that interleague play is over, and while I want no part of him, there is no doubt that as a situational starter, pinch hitter, or batting him at the bottom of the order, he could be more effective than he was as a full-time cleanup hitter. At the worst, selectively show-casing him might build up some trade value.

Here's the real dilemma, and it extends to the business side as well.

The Jays could be one quality starter away from being a solid contender this season. Maybe not Texas-good, but certainly wild-card worthy. If their injured pitchers - minus Drabek - come back more or less as I have outlined above, and AA adds a pitcher like Garza or Rodriquez, they could be pretty good from August on. If Ricky Romero pitches close to his historical best, Morrow comes back strong, and "Third Starter" arrives, then Alvarez/Hutch/Cecil fills in the back end, Santos lets Janssen pitch the eighth instead of the ninth, I like our chances to make the post-season and even surprise in the post-season.

Here's where the economics of that "Third Starter" come in. If AA feels he has to be a seller, for whatever reason, and EE and/or KJ and/or Darren Oliver are moved, then August and September become meaningless as usual, the team loses momentum at the box office and TV ratings fall.

On the other hand, go all in with the acquisition of "Third Starter", and baseball remains meaningful. Attendance is up by 5,000 a game so far. TV ratings are way up. Playing meaningful baseball in August and September pays for itself. Per-game attendance on weekdays will be 25,000+ even after school resumes, instead of falling back to 12,000. TV ratings keep going up in the games are meaningful.

Here's what I don't understand. So far AA is (allegedly) telling other teams he won't take on more money in a trade, but this year, the economic difference between playing meaningful ball and just playing out the season could be as much as 300,000 fans and just as many if not more per game in TV ratings. At average ticket prices, that difference is as much as $10 million, plus extra concession sales. In other words, it's more than enough to pay the pro-rated salary of "Third Pitcher". Of course, being a seller means saving money... but there is a negative carry-over to next season's ticket sales and fan interest generally, vs a positive momentum generator by being relevant through September.

So, it's going to be really interesting, because I don't think the deadline decision this year is at all clear. The stakes are higher, and the risks of going "all in" are not as great as say, signing Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols for an eternity. So long as all of our best prospects are not involved, the cost may be JPA or secondary prospects - maybe David Cooper, Travis Snider, Eric Thames - and money, lots of money, but fairly short-term money.

[Lucky26]

good read dagger

[flatjacket1]

I vote we sell at the deadline then sign a big FA pitcher in the offseason.

[Lateral Quicks]

If AA can pull the trigger on a decent arm that's controllable beyond this year without selling the farm, I'm all for it. Realistically that means a #4 or #3 starter. #1's and #2's are rarely available to begin with, and to get one you'd most likely have to overpay significantly.

[Al_Oliver]

Great post Dagger.

It is too tough to tell at this point exactly what we have. Injuries, Alvarez regression, etc. have really thrown a wrench in things.
I would like Snider to get the rest of the season in LF and for AA to turn up his search for another mid-rotation starter. Keep moving things forward.

[dagger]

Great post Dagger.

It is too tough to tell at this point exactly what we have. Injuries, Alvarez regression, etc. have really thrown a wrench in things.
I would like Snider to get the rest of the season in LF and for AA to turn up his search for another mid-rotation starter. Keep moving things forward.

This is going to evolve, obviously, over the next few weeks. So it seems like time for a good discussion.

[dagger]

I vote we sell at the deadline then sign a big FA pitcher in the offseason.

If you sell at the deadline, it would be positions players. So who's to say there will be an argument for signing a big FA pitcher in the offseason? Thats part of the dilemma. If you trade EE for whatever you get, are you taking the kind of step backward that makes it pointless to pursue pitching. If the goal becomes wait until Syndergaard, Nicolino et all make the major league roster, then what would be the point of signing a pitcher if Adam Lind and David Cooper are your first basemen and goodness knows who is your second baseball.

Then the argument becomes that we have too many holes, too many rookies to contend in 2013 so wait until 2014 to sign an FA.

My inclination is to go all in for this year if the cost of getting an okay 3rd or 4th-level starter isn't measured in our best prospects. And my thought process is that this can be done, if the economic argument for ownership prevails. It's money, not talent, that swing this at minimal cost in terms of talent.

Also, if I understand the new comp rules, trading EE now will get us less than in the past because there is no comp pick for losing a player to free agency if he wasn't on your roster all season. If that's the case, the value of rentals is decreased, and we are better off keeping EE and going for the comp pick ourselves. And once you don't sell at mid-season, why wouldn't you go all-in?

[Griff83]

I'd be trading all of Escobar, JPA, Oliver and Davis.

Bring up d'Arnaud, Hech and Snider and they let finish off the season.

We should be making a play for either Marcum or Sanchez in the offseason.

[Kapono]

Package Esco + JPA + lower level specs for a stud Pitcher

I'd be trading all of Escobar, JPA, Oliver and Davis.

Bring up d'Arnaud, Hech and Snider and they let finish off the season.

We should be making a play for either Marcum or Sanchez in the offseason.

No to Marcum. He has elbow issues.

[dagger]

Clearly, something has to give because we can't keep trotting stiffs like Chavez out to the mound.

[satyr9]

What's the source for the alleged not taking on more salary? Not trying to be %$*!% and I'm not a twitterererer so I could easily miss it, but I don't see any sense in AA saying something like that, even if it's true. I could see hardlining a fellow GM with, you're not getting good prospects if I'm taking a bunch of extra salary, but even if he's under a tight budget constraint, it'd be the last thing he'd want out there tying his hands IMO.

Also, I love a good fan-based budget analysis (I'm prone to them myself) and I'm pretty sure I agree with your projections, but it's just a guess. We have no idea how increased competitiveness affects the bottom line or will drive/deter fan support. Obviously more wins = more fans, but by how many and how much money they generate is impossible to judge for us, and likely very very difficult for Jays management to realistically project. Which isn't to say there aren't obvious signs winning and competing can drive attendance and support into a very good place. Again, I actually agree that a pitcher, if the competitiveness comes with it, probably pays for itself, but that's just our opinion.

I do think selling is pretty much off the table because of the increased attention. Even if it's the best thing, short of a 15 game losing skid putting them 10 out of a WC you won't see them moving out EE or KJ. In a trade for young controllable pitching that's big league ready maybe, and that's a small maybe depending on what's coming back, but I don't think the Jays think they're in a position where they can move MLB ready talent for long-term future and not expect to have a general revolt on their hands.

They will buy something, it just might be J.Guthrie instead of M.Garza types. Somebody they can get starts out of and not totally poop the bed and get them through the year. That'd be just holding court rather than buying or selling, but really I think the market will dictate which way AA goes even more than the on the field performance. He'll look to buy, but at value, like always. I don't think he'll open the prospect vault to compete now (we can differ about the cash vault). Anyway, good thread, end of text wall.

[Parataxis]

Also, if I understand the new comp rules, trading EE now will get us less than in the past because there is no comp pick for losing a player to free agency if he wasn't on your roster all season. If that's the case, the value of rentals is decreased, and we are better off keeping EE and going for the comp pick ourselves. And once you don't sell at mid-season, why wouldn't you go all-in?

I'm not sure if we'd get a comp pick for EE (or KJ) regardless. IIRC, to get a compensory pick, you need to offer your FA a salary equal to the average of the top 125 salaries in the league. That's about 12 mil a year - are they worth that?

[dagger]

Package Esco + JPA + lower level specs for a stud Pitcher

I'd be trading all of Escobar, JPA, Oliver and Davis.

Bring up d'Arnaud, Hech and Snider and they let finish off the season.

We should be making a play for either Marcum or Sanchez in the offseason.

No to Marcum. He has elbow issues.

I'm not sure we need a stud acquisition, we need a solid third man, and have ride Romero and Morrow, both of whom are young enough and under long-term contracts. I'd rather trade for a youngish third pitcher with a bit of upside than an overpriced guy who is on the downside of his career.

Pitching wise, we need a bridge to the kids at A. The Double A crop has been a disappointment this year. We have no future arms at Triple A. But we know that from full year A down, we have lots of high quality prospects. Romero and Morrow are young enough and under contract to be around when the Syndergaards of the world make it to the majors. Hutchinson and Alvarez are still pretty strong prospects, but we can't yet slot them into the third spot. That's where a third or fourth-level guy, something a little better than an inning-eater, plays a strategic role in keeping us competitive until the cavalry arrives in 2014-16.

[Griff83]

What's the source for the alleged not taking on more salary? Not trying to be %$*!% and I'm not a twitterererer so I could easily miss it, but I don't see any sense in AA saying something like that, even if it's true. I could see hardlining a fellow GM with, you're not getting good prospects if I'm taking a bunch of extra salary, but even if he's under a tight budget constraint, it'd be the last thing he'd want out there tying his hands IMO.

Also, I love a good fan-based budget analysis (I'm prone to them myself) and I'm pretty sure I agree with your projections, but it's just a guess. We have no idea how increased competitiveness affects the bottom line or will drive/deter fan support. Obviously more wins = more fans, but by how many and how much money they generate is impossible to judge for us, and likely very very difficult for Jays management to realistically project. Which isn't to say there aren't obvious signs winning and competing can drive attendance and support into a very good place. Again, I actually agree that a pitcher, if the competitiveness comes with it, probably pays for itself, but that's just our opinion.

I do think selling is pretty much off the table because of the increased attention. Even if it's the best thing, short of a 15 game losing skid putting them 10 out of a WC you won't see them moving out EE or KJ. In a trade for young controllable pitching that's big league ready maybe, and that's a small maybe depending on what's coming back, but I don't think the Jays think they're in a position where they can move MLB ready talent for long-term future and not expect to have a general revolt on their hands.

They will buy something, it just might be J.Guthrie instead of M.Garza types. Somebody they can get starts out of and not totally poop the bed and get them through the year. That'd be just holding court rather than buying or selling, but really I think the market will dictate which way AA goes even more than the on the field performance. He'll look to buy, but at value, like always. I don't think he'll open the prospect vault to compete now (we can differ about the cash vault). Anyway, good thread, end of text wall.

How much do we actually lose by trading Esco, JPA and Davis and then replacing them with TDA, Hech and Snider?

Davis is the only one whos really doing anything worthwhile.

[dagger]

Also, if I understand the new comp rules, trading EE now will get us less than in the past because there is no comp pick for losing a player to free agency if he wasn't on your roster all season. If that's the case, the value of rentals is decreased, and we are better off keeping EE and going for the comp pick ourselves. And once you don't sell at mid-season, why wouldn't you go all-in?

I'm not sure if we'd get a comp pick for EE (or KJ) regardless. IIRC, to get a compensory pick, you need to offer your FA a salary equal to the average of the top 125 salaries in the league. That's about 12 mil a year - are they worth that?

Not Kelly Johnson, but I'd argue that for the past 18 months, EE would fetch that kind of money on the open market. My question is how many years do you have to offer?

[dagger]

What's the source for the alleged not taking on more salary? Not trying to be %$*!% and I'm not a twitterererer so I could easily miss it,

On of the national reporters tweeted this week that AA is telling other teams in trade talks he won't take on more money.

I'm pretty sure I posted it somewhere, I can't remember where.

[Avenger]

Yeah lets take JP Morosi's word for it despite all the evidence to the contrary, are we talking about the same GM that took in 6 million dollars of deadweight at last year's trade deadline just to get the player he wanted? The Jays also kicked in money in the Rolen and Halladay deals to get more talent in return

[Fairview4Life]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2012/06/2 ... -knobblin/

Wasn't Morosi initially, from what I recall.

[mikero]

If AA is going to be a buyer, he needs to grab a pitcher ASAP. No chance the Jays stay in the race, starting Chavez/Laffey every 5th day. With the Jays minor league pitching depth plus the number of quality free agents next offseason, I don't think it makes sense to overpay though.... Maybe take a chance on a guy like Francisco Liriano. He would obviously come cheap, and if he catches fire, has the type of stuff to push a longshot like the Jays into playoff contention.

[dagger]

Yeah lets take JP Morosi's word for it despite all the evidence to the contrary, are we talking about the same GM that took in 6 million dollars of deadweight at last year's trade deadline just to get the player he wanted? The Jays also kicked in money in the Rolen and Halladay deals to get more talent in return

The issue might be that we still have most of that deadweight money on the books this season.