RealGM

there was an article on Bleacher Report recently....

Basically here u have the JAYS just a few games out of the playoffs and all the potential pieces in place to make a run except for pitching.

Jays have a loaded farm system and can afford to get those pitchers but instead Jays keep adding to the farm and letting the MLB team play it through.

u have to remember not all ur prospects r gonna end up playing for u let alone even pan out...... why waste a good team now with a loaded offense and Jose in his prime when u can get as few pieces and make a true run.

Is AA more into building the FARM rather than winning in the MLB which should be the goal.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I dont want to trade top prospects either, dont get me wrong, but it was an interesting read

i think most people on here would dismiss that notion, but i believe you can make a compelling argument for either side.

i do think there's substance a Jose argument; can you really afford to wait for the stars to align facing the possibility that your superstar will decline? it's a risk/reward equation that Anthopoulos will be answering for us by July 31.

when it comes down to it what is more important, a good prospect or Jose Bautista? hmm

the article for those who want to read it. Sums up pretty much what everyone thinks.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1244 ... eague-team

Why are they spending on potential over results? There is much more risk going after prospects whom have never played a game in the Majors over MLB vets who have the experience and resume of success in the majors.

I mean there are times you trade for a vet, or sign one, and he stinks or gets injured, ala BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, Francisco Cordero etc.

But most of the time, you will get value for that player.

Seems like the Jays really want to load up that farm system for some reason.

number15 wrote:there was an article on Bleacher Report recently....

Basically here u have the JAYS just a few games out of the playoffs and all the potential pieces in place to make a run except for pitching.

Jays have a loaded farm system and can afford to get those pitchers but instead Jays keep adding to the farm and letting the MLB team play it through.

Don't forget we might be forfeiting 6+ years of another Jose in a trade for a pitcher who sticks around for one season.

We had a substantially weaker first half of the season schedule. Our record in the second half (if we compared the first 81 to the latter 81) will be worse. We are facing tougher teams. If we couldn't make the playoffs in the first half (if the playoffs started today we are well out) with an easy schedule, who says we magically pwn the Yankees in the second half?

My goal is winning, but I'd rather sustainable winning and getting past playoffs, to a world series. We could sell the whole farm right now and get a bunch of rentals and MAYBE make playoffs this year, but why would we want to do that now? I agree there is a point where you should sell prospects for rentals, but this is not the time.

Gose and d'Arnaud were both ranked in the same neighborhood as Brett Lawrie when we traded for him. We could potentially be forfeiting a future cornerstone in a trade that parted with them for Marcum caliber pitching. Votto was ranked 44th in BA's top 100 prospects before cracking the big league roster. He turned out okay. Mike Trout was ranked 85th in 2010, and could have been traded for a rental. We have a ton of prospects in this range.

flatjacket1 wrote:Don't forget we might be forfeiting 6+ years of another Jose in a trade for a pitcher who sticks around for one season.

We had a substantially weaker first half of the season schedule. Our record in the second half (if we compared the first 81 to the latter 81) will be worse. We are facing tougher teams. If we couldn't make the playoffs in the first half (if the playoffs started today we are well out) with an easy schedule, who says we magically pwn the Yankees in the second half?

My goal is winning, but I'd rather sustainable winning and getting past playoffs, to a world series. We could sell the whole farm right now and get a bunch of rentals and MAYBE make playoffs this year, but why would we want to do that now? I agree there is a point where you should sell prospects for rentals, but this is not the time.

Gose and d'Arnaud were both ranked in the same neighborhood as Brett Lawrie when we traded for him. We could potentially be forfeiting a future cornerstone in a trade that parted with them for Marcum caliber pitching. Votto was ranked 44th in BA's top 100 prospects before cracking the big league roster. He turned out okay. Mike Trout was ranked 85th in 2010, and could have been traded for a rental. We have a ton of prospects in this range.

flatjacket, I didn't have the patience to respond to this earlier so I'm glad you put it all out there.

Fans need to understand what is at stake with these myopic postseason runs. We're building a dynasty here. A little forbearance, please.

I expect AA to have learned a few lessons at year's end. Look for us to make moves in FA.

I don't mind keeping the farm system mightily strong. That's going to allow us to sustain a very competitive team for years on the cheap. On. The. Cheap.

IMO, that means that, if we're not going to acquire top pitching through trades; when we're lacking, we should be picking them up through free agency. If the free agent pitcher declines in year 2 or 3, we should still be able to get something for them (hence continually stocking the minors).

This is why it's frustrating watching us just watch free agent pitchers that can help us not even get the nod from AA that we want them on our squad.

I think until the pitching arrives from the minors, we should be targeting free agent pitchers heavily, then move them once they become replaceable by a younger, more controllable player.

jalenrose#5 wrote:the article for those who want to read it. Sums up pretty much what everyone thinks.

I don't know anyone who thinks this, outside of that bleacher report idiot, a couple of people who have posted in this thread, and maybe some casual baseball fans who think that a baseball minor league system is similar to having an AHL team.

I think we are reaching a point, probably next winter, where a number of issues we've discussed are going to start intersecting.

1. The farm system, once very thin, is now exceptionally well stocked. It's one of the best in the business.

2. We're close enough at the major league level, when mostly healthy, to aspire to a playoff spot, if not more, but lack maybe 1-2 pieces that could be filled by trading prospects for players with established major league value.

3. Rogers, via Beeston, has signaled that if revenues rise, so will payroll. It's a perverse business argument, usually you spend to make money, but somehow the fan base is going along with Beeston's perverse logic and has provided the prerequesite for a decent payroll rise, say $20 million more.

4. As we can all attest, not all prospects break through decisively to stay, like a Mike Trout. Some tease, like Travis Snider, and it's fair to ask whether AA is hanging on to guys like Snider, Cooper, etc too long instead of packaging them for even a small upgrade of the ML roster.

I think AA's approach has been the right one, but it's also fair to begin asking whether the prospect pipeline is so full we can take a few risks to accelerate improvement at the ML level. Given the fullness of the pipeline, and Beeston's payroll raising promise, there should be less hesitancy to make a deal that advances the Blue Jays as a playoff contender, sooner than later.

I'm of a like mind with Dagger.
With the addition of another wild-card, the Jays are only a couple of pitchers away from being an elite team and in true playoff contention. Despite down years from Escobar, Arencibia and Lind, the team is offensively explosive and scoring isn't a problem.

There are a number of pitchers to be available in the next offseason, and if the Jays can sign 2 solid starters and maybe continue to bolster the bullpen then this could be a team that clicks on both pitching and hitting at the same time and make sustainable winning streaks happen.

On the bullpen, the emergence of Janssen, the return of Santos, the wildcard of Stroman, and all our young elite pitching prospects a year closer to the majors means that next year could be the start of a long term dynasty.

I'd rather scrub this year on that basis. Stars on the team like Jose could be unhappy with this approach, but could be hugely mitigated if AA promises to spend significant money to bring in high level FAs in the offseason, and the promise to bring in additional talent via trades during the season next year to plug holes.

My read of the situation is that AA is not prepared to sell impending free agents that would be hard to replace. That's good. He's also not prepared to sell prospects for short-term upgrades. That's also good. I think AA's approach has been excellent thus far. You can't fault him for not having enough pitching depth to make up for 3/5ths of his rotation succumbing to medium-long term injury, and having his previously consistent ace-like pitcher having a horrible year. Just about any team would be struggling under those circumstances.

My only fault with AA thus far is his peculiar personnel decisions vis-a-vis the bullpen. Carreno's confidence has been totally shattered from being jerked around. Beck is in limbo. Crawford, a guy everyone was raving about prior to the season, has been forgotten despite getting only a cup of coffee in the bigs. I think as an organization, the Jays need to move guys into bullpen roles sooner. Yes, you want to maximize value, but you also want to fill your bullpen from within so that you don't have to pay the Coco's of the world $4.5M to stink up the joint.

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:

jalenrose#5 wrote:the article for those who want to read it. Sums up pretty much what everyone thinks.

I don't know anyone who thinks this, outside of that bleacher report idiot, a couple of people who have posted in this thread, and maybe some casual baseball fans who think that a baseball minor league system is similar to having an AHL team.

That bleacher report idiot actually wrote a pretty decent article (for B/R standards). He brought up a good point and it brought about discussion...hardly something an idiot could come up with.

I can see why he said it. The Jays are investing so much in the draft, whether its players or scouts, and their farm system is reaping the benefits.

However, the MLB team is still a .500 team, and perennial treadmill team because they don't invest extra money into the MLB team. Maybe in two-three years it'll be different when the high end prospects are ready, but right now, I can see why he argued this point.

jalenrose#5 wrote:That bleacher report idiot actually wrote a pretty decent article (for B/R standards). He brought up a good point and it brought about discussion...hardly something an idiot could come up with.

I can see why he said it. The Jays are investing so much in the draft, whether its players or scouts, and their farm system is reaping the benefits.

However, the MLB team is still a .500 team, and perennial treadmill team because they don't invest extra money into the MLB team. Maybe in two-three years it'll be different when the high end prospects are ready, but right now, I can see why he argued this point.

Prospects are already ready. d'Arnaud just had an injury but he could be called up any day. Hech has shown improvement, and Gose has cut down his K rate (I expect both of the latter to repeat the level) and they could fill the current holes at C and LF. A strong farm system eventually makes it was to a strong MLB team, and then once we are a playoff team, we make prospect for rentals trades.

I'm not saying trading prospects is out of the question, but rather there is a time and place for that. We are a building team, hurting a lot (injuries) so I just don't see the logic.

Right now we value the minors more than the passed but we still have plenty of good players on our major league club. It has to be said many times on here that a .500 team in the AL East is very good, and people seem to forget that or not believe it's true.

We've spent money on our MLB team in the past 20 years though, which also resulted in a .500 team.

If we can have a .500 team on a limited payroll and had a .500 team with Wells, Rios, BJ Ryan, and Frank Thomas type contracts on our team, it's pretty obvious what the GM/owners would choose(cheaper team).

At least we're putting money towards draft picks , and AA said he will spend if/when the team competes, I'm really hoping he keeps his word on this.

If we didn't have Bautista, I wonder if there would still be as much pressure to win now. He's really the only main piece that is a significantly older than the other guys and you just feel bad for him with the historic run he's on.

I don't want to trade the three guys in Lansing and it's a shame we didn't add a starting pitcher through free agency, but I think AA is going to wait it out. Look forward to more waiver wire pickups this season.

What some people constantly forget is that the key to most successful teams is getting that championship-calibre core in place before paying a big price (whether through free agency or trade) for the one or two pieces that can either put you over the top or help to sustain your success. The Jays weren't there yet in the offseason, and they still aren't there now.

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:I know we constantly hear the Tampa Bay Rays as the example as what AA is trying to build, but I think what AA is really shooting for is the mid 90's Yankees. The key to most successful teams is getting that championship-calibre core in place before paying a big price (whether through free agency or trade) for the one or two pieces that can either put you over the top or help to sustain your success. The Jays weren't there yet in the offseason, and they still aren't there yet.

Actually, Texas is the better homologue.

Hamyltowne wrote:

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:I know we constantly hear the Tampa Bay Rays as the example as what AA is trying to build, but I think what AA is really shooting for is the mid 90's Yankees. The key to most successful teams is getting that championship-calibre core in place before paying a big price (whether through free agency or trade) for the one or two pieces that can either put you over the top or help to sustain your success. The Jays weren't there yet in the offseason, and they still aren't there yet.

Actually, Texas is the better homologue.

Yeah, I realized that right after I posted it and edited out comparisons in general, because I didn't want that to be the focus of my point. I used the Yanks because people always see them as a team that does what the Jays can't because they spend so much, but the fact is they never would be where they are now if they hadn't built a core through their minor league system.

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:

Hamyltowne wrote:

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:I know we constantly hear the Tampa Bay Rays as the example as what AA is trying to build, but I think what AA is really shooting for is the mid 90's Yankees. The key to most successful teams is getting that championship-calibre core in place before paying a big price (whether through free agency or trade) for the one or two pieces that can either put you over the top or help to sustain your success. The Jays weren't there yet in the offseason, and they still aren't there yet.

Actually, Texas is the better homologue.

Yeah, I realized that right after I posted it and edited out comparisons in general, because I didn't want that to be the focus of my point. I used the Yanks because people always see them as a team that does what the Jays can't because they spend so much, but the fact is they never would be where they are now if they hadn't built a core through their minor league system.

I agree. The buy-now trade ideas are irresponsible.

To the OP, we already had this debate, in full, in the 'Rate AA as GM' thread.

Just read the thread: viewtopic.php?f=123&t=1186789

In there, parallels were drawn to many teams, scenarios played out, prognostications, all that. Have a read. Good postings were made with thought and care.

No need to go over this every week.