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If the season ended today...

NL Cy Young
AL Cy Young
NL MVP
AL MVP
NL ROY
AL ROY
NL MOY
AL MOY

NL LVP
AL LVP

Feel free to throw in predictions, favourite moments, all that.

I'll go first:

NL Cy Young — R.A. Dickey

AL Cy Young — Justin Verlander

NL MVP — Joey Votto

AL MVP — Josh Hamilton

NL ROY — Bryce Harper

AL ROY — Mike Trout

NL MOY — Clint Hurdle

AL MOY — Buck Showalter

NL LVP — Tim Lincecum

AL LVP — Adrian Gonzalez

I agree with all yours, except that I think Mike Trout or even Robinson Cano may sneak into Al MVP

and I think Adrian Gonzalez has been dissapointing but he's got his average up around 280 and has decent RBI's it's really just the power...

I'd say maybe Adam Lind, or even a Justin Morneau for dissapointments

Also, I like Mike Scocia in Anaheim for MOY.

NL Cy Young - Dickey
AL Cy Young - Verlander
NL MVP - Votto
AL MVP - Yunel Escobar
NL ROY - Harper
AL ROY - Trout
NL MOY - dunno
AL MOY - Baltimore Manager

NL LVP LinciCUM
AL LVP A. Gonzalez

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I like Burnett for comeback player

spykelee wrote:I agree with all yours, except that I think Mike Trout or even Robinson Cano may sneak into Al MVP

and I think Adrian Gonzalez has been dissapointing but he's got his average up around 280 and has decent RBI's it's really just the power...

I'd say maybe Adam Lind, or even a Justin Morneau for dissapointments

Also, I like Mike Scocia in Anaheim for MOY.

I don't know how you could give Scocia the AL MOY when his team was predicted to make the postseason with a first or second place finish in their division. That his team began the season in shambles would certainly be a knock against his candidacy. Everybody predicted Showalter's Os to finish last, and so if the season ended today, I would not hesitate in giving him AL MOY.

I know Robin Ventura deserves a mention, but his squad wasn't slated to finish last (those honours went to Minnesota), so his story can't compare to the Orioles re-living their 1988-to-1989 transition here in 2012.

I'm having trouble forgetting Cano's slow start, but Trout is definitely runner-up in AL MVP.

I suppose Lind or Morneau have a case for AL LVP. So do Vernon Wells and Chone Figgins. Still, we can't ignore A-Gon's contract. He's getting paid $21m to be barely above replacement level.

(Wells has a big contract, too, but we already knew he was past it. There were bigger expectations for A-Gon.)

number15 wrote:NL Cy Young - Dickey
AL Cy Young - Verlander
NL MVP - Votto
AL MVP - Yunel Escobar
NL ROY - Harper
AL ROY - Trout
NL MOY - dunno
AL MOY - Baltimore Manager

NL LVP LinciCUM
AL LVP A. Gonzalez

-------------------------------------------

uhhh....

I'm a sucker for centre fielders, so I'll give my MVP vote to Cutch and Trout. Votto's having a pretty ridiculous year though, while Hamilton had a pretty awful June but probably is still the front runner.

Hamyltowne wrote:

spykelee wrote:I agree with all yours, except that I think Mike Trout or even Robinson Cano may sneak into Al MVP

and I think Adrian Gonzalez has been dissapointing but he's got his average up around 280 and has decent RBI's it's really just the power...

I'd say maybe Adam Lind, or even a Justin Morneau for dissapointments

Also, I like Mike Scocia in Anaheim for MOY.

I don't know how you could give Scocia the AL MOY when his team was predicted to make the postseason with a first or second place finish in their division. That his team began the season in shambles would certainly be a knock against his candidacy. Everybody predicted Showalter's Os to finish last, and so if the season ended today, I would not hesitate in giving him AL MOY.

I know Robin Ventura deserves a mention, but his squad wasn't slated to finish last (those honours went to Minnesota), so his story can't compare to the Orioles re-living their 1988-to-1989 transition here in 2012.

I'm having trouble forgetting Cano's slow start, but Trout is definitely runner-up in AL MVP.

I suppose Lind or Morneau have a case for AL LVP. So do Vernon Wells and Chone Figgins. Still, we can't ignore A-Gon's contract. He's getting paid $21m to be barely above replacement level.

(Wells has a big contract, too, but we already knew he was past it. There were bigger expectations for A-Gon.)

Yea upon re-evalution, Showalter is a lock for MOY, no question. Cano's slow start was brutal, but his smoking hot last couple months have been nothing short of outstanding.

Least valuable is so arbitrary. I mean, you never know, maybe there's a series of fine's for good play or something

If the season ended today...

NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg Tempting to go with Dickey because of month of insane dominance, but overall Stras has been better. 20 extra IP makes it reaaaaaally close though

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander Would be Sale if he wasn't 30 IP behind Verly

NL MVP: : Andrew McCutchen Could just as easily be Braun, Votto or Wright.

AL MVP: Mike Trout Leading the league in WAR despite spending April in the minors. All-around amazing player

NL ROY: Bryce Harper

AL ROY: Mike Trout Not even close

NL MOY: Most managers not named Farrell are all as useful(/useless) as one another

AL MOY: people just say they're good when their players overperform

NL LVP: Tim Lincecum Worst ERA by far for a $20M man

AL LVP: Francisco Cordero Screw you, Coco

Skin Blues wrote:If the season ended today...

NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg Tempting to go with Dickey because of month of insane dominance, but overall Stras has been better. 20 extra IP makes it reaaaaaally close though.

You think it appropriate giving the Cy Young to a guy who's been kept to pitch counts and whose innings will be capped at 160-ish? I know it's 'if it ended today,' but still, he's been on a leash.

He's only 20 IP behind Dickey and has been pretty clearly the better pitcher. So yes, I have no issue with giving the CYA to in my opinion the best pitcher in baseball. Also, the Nats haven't come out and said there's a 160 IP limit. People assume that, since it's how they treated Zimmermann. I would take the over on 160, FWIW.

I also don't believe that it's at all necessary to put a usage cap on puitchers returning from TJ surgery. A ligament is a ligament. If it's gonna snap now, it'll snap later. It doesn't get stronger as time goes on just because you use it less. Managers stick to the arbitrary 160 IP because if they don't, and something goes wrong, they're blamed. But if they follow the protocol, it's out of their hands. Chris Carpenter pitched something like 200 innings after returning from TJ surgery, and only haveing thrown 21 innigns in the previous 2 seasons combined, and he was perfectly fine. Until there's evidence to back these IP caps, I'm not gonna beliee them for a second. Not to mention that not all innings are created equally, but that's another can of worms.

Comeback player of the year vote goes to Buster Posey for me

Skin Blues wrote:He's only 20 IP behind Dickey and has been pretty clearly the better pitcher. So yes, I have no issue with giving the CYA to in my opinion the best pitcher in baseball. Also, the Nats haven't come out and said there's a 160 IP limit. People assume that, since it's how they treated Zimmermann. I would take the over on 160, FWIW.

I also don't believe that it's at all necessary to put a usage cap on puitchers returning from TJ surgery. A ligament is a ligament. If it's gonna snap now, it'll snap later. It doesn't get stronger as time goes on just because you use it less. Managers stick to the arbitrary 160 IP because if they don't, and something goes wrong, they're blamed. But if they follow the protocol, it's out of their hands. Chris Carpenter pitched something like 200 innings after returning from TJ surgery, and only haveing thrown 21 innigns in the previous 2 seasons combined, and he was perfectly fine. Until there's evidence to back these IP caps, I'm not gonna beliee them for a second. Not to mention that not all innings are created equally, but that's another can of worms.

I agree with the second paragraph, but your first paragraph is based on Mike Rizzo's equivocations. His innings will be capped. Perhaps over 160, but definitely below 200. As such, I cannot sign off on giving the CYA to a pitcher with under 200 IP.

But the thread is about awards given if the season ended today, halfway through the season, and so 20 IP is rather a lot. I go with Dickey.

Skin Blues wrote:I also don't believe that it's at all necessary to put a usage cap on puitchers returning from TJ surgery. A ligament is a ligament. If it's gonna snap now, it'll snap later. It doesn't get stronger as time goes on just because you use it less. Managers stick to the arbitrary 160 IP because if they don't, and something goes wrong, they're blamed. But if they follow the protocol, it's out of their hands. Chris Carpenter pitched something like 200 innings after returning from TJ surgery, and only haveing thrown 21 innigns in the previous 2 seasons combined, and he was perfectly fine. Until there's evidence to back these IP caps, I'm not gonna beliee them for a second. Not to mention that not all innings are created equally, but that's another can of worms.

Thomas Boswell thinks you're a nincompoop.

Thomas Boswell, Washington Post wrote:
It’s time to lay the Stephen Strasburg inning-limit non-issue to rest. There is no debate here, no “two sides,” about the Nationals’ intention to shut down Strasburg’s season at 160 to 170 innings, probably about Sept. 10. There is only the Nats’ side, which is correct, and the nincompoop side, even if it is endorsed by former players or “experts.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/nationals-should-take-no-chances-with-stephen-strasburgs-innings-limit/2012/07/05/gJQAbS6TQW_story.html

^ Don't forget to click on 'next page,' as it is a two-age article.

Then the feeling is mutual, whoever this Thomas Boswell is. The article he quoted to back up his assertion that 38 years of research has gone into this 160 IP limit shows nothing inside of it to actually prove that point. It's a surface look at the history of the surgery. No numbers, no data. They refer to this mystery data, but they never actually present it or cite it. Not even weak anecdotal evidence. All he says is: "If you jump the number by more than 20 percent from one year to the next, bad things tend to happen." Well guess what... if you throw a baseball for a living, bad things tend to happen no matter how many innings you throw, no matter hwo many surgeries you've had.

I'd like to see any of this 38 years of research that shows pitchers need an IP restriction when they return from TJ surgery. That there's a physiological difference 2 years post-op than 1 year post-op. For something that seems so accepted, nobody ever cites actual research or data. Tom Verducci tried it but was largely unsuccessful. Like I said, teams are taking the common road because if something goes wrong, they can say "well this is what other teams do, so it's not my fault". Where are all these guys that blew out their arms after pitching 200 innings the year after returning from TJ surgery? The only guy I can think of to throw that many innings in recent memory is Chris Carpenter and he's had no issues with his elbow since then. He was pretty damned effective in the 200 IP the first season back from missing 2 entire seasons, and then 470 IP the two years after that. He now has a nerve issue (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome) in his neck but I find it hard to believe it's related to 40 extra innings following elbow surgery 4 years ago. Yet I could find a ton of guys that were pampered after having the surgery and still needed it re-done. Did Soria, Wilson and Drabek pitch 160 innings combined the year after their first TJ surgery? How did that turn out?

In short... cutting Strasburg's season short will likely not make any difference to his injury susceptibility, as there's no evidence to support it. However, I'm sure they'll be careful because if he throws a lot of innings and gets hurt, they'll never hear the end of it and heads will roll. I guarantee you this: Adam Wainwright will pitch well over 160 innings this season, just like the Cards did with Carpenter. And he'll be fine. Just like Carpenter. And it won't change anything; the mythical 160 IP will continue for the other teams.

And none of this is to say that pitchers shouldn't be on pitch counts, limiting how much they throw between rest. They definitely should be. There's evidence for that. I don't agree with the Texas Rangers' philosophy that if a pitcher feels good, to just let him throw. It's an inexact science, but controlling pitch counts is the way to go. Not having draconian innings limits, and not arbitrarily shutting a guy down a month before the end of the season if he's been on a strict pitch count and getting usual rest between starts.

spykelee wrote:I agree with all yours, except that I think Mike Trout or even Robinson Cano may sneak into Al MVP

All right, I recant. You're right. There is just no stopping Mike Trout. He is AL MVP, even at the age of 20, and after playing the first month in the minors. The kid is amazing.

Also, I should recant my pick for NL MVP.

McCutchen, not Votto, should get it (at this point).

Skin Blues wrote:Then the feeling is mutual, whoever this Thomas Boswell is. The article he quoted to back up his assertion that 38 years of research has gone into this 160 IP limit shows nothing inside of it to actually prove that point. It's a surface look at the history of the surgery. No numbers, no data. They refer to this mystery data, but they never actually present it or cite it. Not even weak anecdotal evidence. All he says is: "If you jump the number by more than 20 percent from one year to the next, bad things tend to happen." Well guess what... if you throw a baseball for a living, bad things tend to happen no matter how many innings you throw, no matter hwo many surgeries you've had.

I'd like to see any of this 38 years of research that shows pitchers need an IP restriction when they return from TJ surgery. That there's a physiological difference 2 years post-op than 1 year post-op. For something that seems so accepted, nobody ever cites actual research or data. Tom Verducci tried it but was largely unsuccessful. Like I said, teams are taking the common road because if something goes wrong, they can say "well this is what other teams do, so it's not my fault". Where are all these guys that blew out their arms after pitching 200 innings the year after returning from TJ surgery? The only guy I can think of to throw that many innings in recent memory is Chris Carpenter and he's had no issues with his elbow since then. He was pretty damned effective in the 200 IP the first season back from missing 2 entire seasons, and then 470 IP the two years after that. He now has a nerve issue (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome) in his neck but I find it hard to believe it's related to 40 extra innings following elbow surgery 4 years ago. Yet I could find a ton of guys that were pampered after having the surgery and still needed it re-done. Did Soria, Wilson and Drabek pitch 160 innings combined the year after their first TJ surgery? How did that turn out?

In short... cutting Strasburg's season short will likely not make any difference to his injury susceptibility, as there's no evidence to support it. However, I'm sure they'll be careful because if he throws a lot of innings and gets hurt, they'll never hear the end of it and heads will roll. I guarantee you this: Adam Wainwright will pitch well over 160 innings this season, just like the Cards did with Carpenter. And he'll be fine. Just like Carpenter. And it won't change anything; the mythical 160 IP will continue for the other teams.

And none of this is to say that pitchers shouldn't be on pitch counts, limiting how much they throw between rest. They definitely should be. There's evidence for that. I don't agree with the Texas Rangers' philosophy that if a pitcher feels good, to just let him throw. It's an inexact science, but controlling pitch counts is the way to go. Not having draconian innings limits, and not arbitrarily shutting a guy down a month before the end of the season if he's been on a strict pitch count and getting usual rest between starts.

I'm not a Kinesiologist, so I can't speak to the science of TJ recovery (if there even is one). Still, I'm not sure you're arguing the right points here.

Strasburg has never thrown more than 123 innings in a year. Even if he weren't coming back from TJ, he'd still have an IP cap or 180 or so. I can't imagine any team would let him go from 123 IP to 200 IP. Come on, even Henderson Alvarez has a cap (if he can ever get to it).

And Wainwright is not comparable because he underwent TJ after back-to-back 230 IP years. In fact, 3 of his 4 years prior to TJ were with over 200 IP. Plus he's 30.

Strasburg, on the other hand, is 23, with never one year of more than 123 IP. There's just no comparison.

It would be grossly irresponsible for the Nats to let him get to 200. Suppose he gets hurt again, not even this year, but next year. Fans would be quick to draw the link, however misguided, and they'd never let that die. It would be devastating. All for nothing since they could've stuck to the script of an IP limit, and if he ever does gets hurt, it's not on the team since they played it straight.

That's what it comes down to: the fact that the Nationals are just trying to wash their hands of what could be another injury from a pitcher who has shown himself very prone to them. (Look at this delivery if you're not convinced he'll go down again.) If Strasburg were not on an IP limit this year, it would be irresponsible.

I know that teams generally use the gradual IP increase. What I'm saying is I don't believe it's effective at preventing injuries. I don't believe a player going from 120 IP to 200 IP will be at a greater risk for injury as a guy going from 180 IP to 200 IP, all else being equal. There's a selection bias in that players who have already pitched 180 IP might simply be able to hold up better over the course of a season, not because their arms are "worked in", but because of their mechanics. If Strasburg keeps pitching the same way then getting to 200 IP will be just as dangerous next year as it is this year. Following that logic, it would be irresponsible to ever have him pitch more than 160 IP. Which is a much more valid argument than saying he should increase by 30 IP each season, or whatever theory people want to believe in.

NL Cy Young- Matt Cain
AL Cy Young- Jered Weaver
NL MVP- Joey Votto or Andrew McCutchen
AL MVP- Mike Trout
NL ROY- Bryce Harper
AL ROY- Mike Trout
NL MOY- Clint Hurdle
AL MOY- Mike Scoscia

NL LVP- Timmy Lincecum
AL LVP- Ricky Romero