Will Carlos Villanueva Be Re-signed?

[Raptor04]

With Villanueva emerging as a solid starter, will the Jays look to re-sign him and guarantee him a rotation spot if he keeps up the solid play? A few questions come to mind:

1. Is he able to handle 30+ starts while pitching 180+ innings? If not, should a proven innings-eating SP be more of a priority?

2. What would he command on the open market in terms of dollars/years? Will it be worth it compared to the other arms on the market, or could we get better value for another FA option?

I'm more concerned about the second question. Fact is, he's proved that he can be a very effective middle-relief pitcher out of the bull-pen, and excellent insurance in case someone goes down (and fact is, winning teams should always have this kind of depth if they hope to sustain a legit playoff run). But with the way he's pitched, and countless times where he's said he would rather start, does he accept the role as a fringe #5 starter/bullpen guy, and if so, what will he command for it?

I'm not sure what he would get, but if he can keep up his level of play while keeping a respectable <4 ERA, I could see him costing too much for the Jays. What do you all think?

[DonYon]

he won't cost anything significant, but I think it'll depend how he wants to be used. If he's looking to be a full-time starter quite a few teams out there will guarantee him a 4th or 5th spot, but I'm not sure if the blue jays would.

[Raptor04]

he won't cost anything significant, but I think it'll depend how he wants to be used. If he's looking to be a full-time starter quite a few teams out there will guarantee him a 4th or 5th spot, but I'm not sure if the blue jays would.

That's what I was thinking, but when I mean he will "cost too much" I don't mean that he'll be a 7m/yr type pitcher. I'm wondering whether the dollars he commands will be too much to justify him on the team as being primarily middle-relief.

[satyr9]

I think that's right, right now. However, if he gets to start the rest of the way and doesn't flame out like he did last year, he just might get a pretty substantial deal. Not outlandish by any stretch, but I've certainly see GMs do stupider things than take a risk on Villanueva being full-time back-end starter capable.

I love him as mid relief with an option to start depending on rotation health, but he can price himself out of that range for the Jays if he finishes the season strong.

Maybe not though, the relief and back-end rotation FA market makes almost no sense to me most years. One guy'll get 4-8m and his equal in every way, shape, and form will struggle to find an offer. Playing in that pond is far more about GMsmanship than it is proper talent evaluation, especially with the enormous range of variation those calibre players are prone to throughout their careers.

[dagger]

I think it's too early to think about this. He's riding a high, but his career as a starter suggests some regression to the mean will occur. He's ultimately a nice 5th starter, and that won't cost us a fortune to keep.

And we will end up A few hundred thousand fans over last season, and while Rogers may not allow AA to sign pricey free agents he had shown a willingness to pay guys already on the roster to stay.

[Kaizen]

This is not going to help things.

Tony Ambrogio: Carlos Villanueva also said in response to AA: "I definitely don't love the adversiting of that being put out there." #Jays

Tony Ambrogio: Today Villanueva - an impending free agent - responded. "If he doesn't feel I can hold up for an entire season that's what he feels like."

Tony Ambrogio: Yesterday #Jays GM Alex Anthopolous said he wasn't sure if Carlos Villanueva could handle the starting P role on a full-time basis. (Con't)

[Tuuk]

I don't know why AA keeps doubting it, if you have Villaneuva tentatively slotted in as your #5 and he's capable of giving you a solid 6 IP every start, what's wrong with that? I don't get the constant bashing of the guy through the media, especially when he's been by far our best and most reliable starter this year (excluding Morrow). Villaneuva has said he wants to stay in Toronto, he wants to start, the Blue Jays need starters desperately and he's earned the shot, why aren't we signing him knowing worst case we have a great swing long relief guy. I don't really get it.

We're looking so thin at SP for next year.

[Wally West]

I don't know why AA keeps doubting it, if you have Villaneuva tentatively slotted in as your #5 and he's capable of giving you a solid 6 IP every start, what's wrong with that? I don't get the constant bashing of the guy through the media, especially when he's been by far our best and most reliable starter this year (excluding Morrow). Villaneuva has said he wants to stay in Toronto, he wants to start, the Blue Jays need starters desperately and he's earned the shot, why aren't we signing him knowing worst case we have a great swing long relief guy. I don't really get it.

We're looking so thin at SP for next year.

I definitely agree. Out of all the Blue Jays this year, Villanueva's definitely been one of the brighter spots. I'd definitely look to bring him back especially with the pitching so thin.

[akakalakin]

AA's MO in this case really sucks, just another reason to fire him.

[BigLeagueChew]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/free-agent-stock-watch-carlos-villanueva.html

“When you’re looking at a starter you’re looking at 32 or 34 starts, 200 innings, durability, things like that, that’s part of the equation,” Anthopoulos told reporters, including Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. “There’s no question when he’s taken the ball he’s done a great job. But his [durability] is obviously part of the equation. That’s not to take anything away from him. But that’s the unknown with Carlos, he’s never had 200 innings, he’s never had 32 or 34 starts. I think we all would say you love what you see, what he’s done for us and he’s a great teammate and all those things. But again we’ve only had bits and pieces of him starting.”

I'd imagine AA could be just as confident in Villanueva throwing 200 innings as you would have been with Drabek and Hutch. Even if they weren't hurt this year, Hutch and Drabek would likely be shutdown near 16-0-185 innings wouldn't they?

Good luck finding those 200 inning pitchers that are above average because so far he hasn't given us many of them.

[youreachiteach]

As far as the Jays being an "above board" organization that "does things right", this whole negotiation through the media with AA is very distasteful.

It is very obvious that AA has an opinion of Carlos that he is a swingman; and that he doesn't throw hard enough or stay healthy enough to garner any more responsibility than being the long man +occasional spot starter in the American League East. (I think he had a somewhat similar opinion of Marcum despite the fact he was more established, and traded him before he felt his value would drop.) That is to say; he feels that he is only worth so much. AA certainly has more information in this vein than I do (including physical tests and the like) and I don't begrudge him his assessment even though I think there is an argument to be made over his career that he could handle the extra innings.

Where I differ, and frankly, where I am getting frustrated, is his insistence on broadcasting it through the media. The obvious purpose of this (which is not lost on anyone, chiefly Carlos or his agent) is to lower his overall market value; and to protect his behind (and by extension, his boss's) if Carlos bolts for greener pastures. Carlos had made some comments previously about wanting to stay here, and hoping to renegotiate his contract--but he stopped short of complaining or insisting something be done. He also showed some savvy in saying the right things about just controlling what he could do and so on, which I appreciated. Sure, he was hoping to get something accomplished--but he was simply answering questions without taking the extra step of being accusatory.

Last year, I felt AA tried to be as honest as possible, although he couldn't always deliver what he promised. This year, he appears much whinier and much less forthcoming in his interviews. Maybe he feels he has been misquoted; or perhaps he feels his approach is coming under too much scrutiny too soon. Perhaps the amount of money required this off-season is particularly in short amount considering the team needs (2 SP's)is making him close off talks necessarily. Maybe Villaneuva's agent is asking for too much-- I don't know.

What I do know is that getting him back seems to be in great jeopardy; and I'm not sure it had to go this way. And this from a player who has simply done what was asked; and execute wonderfully time and time again. This can't be the way to improving the discourse between management and those free agents we might be attempting to sign, either.

[YogiStewart]

CV fatigued last year. i see no reason why to not doubt him doing it next year if he's a starter.
CV is a fine-ish 5th starter. not sure if you're looking at being a powerhouse if he's in the rotation. he does stuff well but he doesn't have the stuff to scare batters. i wonder if the AL East would figure him out halfway through a season of starting.

the jays aren't in a position to NOT sign CV. they kind of have to, since they're really short on arms

[Wo1verine]

Probably would have been a better chance of Villa returning if it wasn't for trading for Happ! He pretty much takes the #5 spot away from Carlos.

Rotation in 2013 i would think at this point is ;

#1SP/Morrow
Morrow/ #2SP
Romero
SP#4
Happ

Next in line - --

Alvarez - Needs to developed a strikeout pitch
Hutch (when ready)
Drabek (when ready)
McGowan
Litsch
Jenkins, etc..

[Wo1verine]

Just to add - I prefer Villa and if he walks for 5 or 6 million and we paid 4 prospects to replace him with Happ (probably $4M) I am going to be pissed!

[Kaizen]

People really think we will send Alvarez down after being in the league for 1.5 years? That seems like crazy talk to me. How often do teams send young players down when they have an average ERA?

[Wo1verine]

People really think we will send Alvarez down after being in the league for 1.5 years? That seems like crazy talk to me. How often do teams send young players down when they have an average ERA?

Depends on how many SP's they can acquire this winter..
Alvarez hasn't pitched good and really needs a strikeout pitch to take the next step, and he's best to learn it in Buffalo next year, imo..

[ItsDanger]

I'd have to agree with AA on this one, Villaneuva doesnt appear to have the endurance be a starter for a full season. I wouldnt have done it that way through the media though. I get the impression he wants to be a starter. thats where the big $ are and he will likely walk.

[akakalakin]

not gonna get a 200 innings eater for the price of CV

just not available, maybe a one year wonder but good luck with that

with CV you know your engine

[Gibby]

Blue jays would be fools not to sign this guy to a reasonable contract. There isn't a lot of great options on the free agent market, so I honestly have no idea why they'd let him walk

[youreachiteach]

I think the truth is that AA has certain monies already ticketed for certain aspects of the team. He's got a big shopping list for starters in the off-season, and Carlos wasn't supposed to be worth nearly this much ( He was thinking a couple mil raise at a max). This allocation problem is a major issue for AA, who is looking a little sillier every time Carlos goes out on the mound and gets it done. I really feel this is the underlying reason for AA's not to subtle jabs at Carlos through the media.

The writer for the Jays site actually wants him to be re-signed and seems to agree he is getting the shaft, and has spent some (not inconsiderable) time campaigning through his articles to help Carlos. I get where AA is coming from, it would be a risk (although, probably one a team with a more substantial payroll would barely roll their eyes at).

It's becoming clear he can handle the workload decently, and he's a valuable piece at this point. It's really too bad, because if AA had, for example, gone more all in last year when others were suggesting it, this would be the perfect depth move to solidify our talent base in the majors. Because of the in-between nature of our intent to compete at the moment, and the necessity to focus solely on getting some final long term pieces at cost, it appears unlikely something will get done.

Actually, this off-season is going to be a really tough one for AA, because the risk factor in ALL of his moves now has skyrocketed with the regression of Romero and the poor play of Johnson and Escobar. He may be forced to simply go with the kids because there are no better options given the lack of respectable options at cost. This despite AA's preference to let the kids play in the minors for longer in all of his interviews.

Hang on to the prospects and let them simmer? Or go mostly all-in for some right now starting pitching? Tough calls to be made soon.