Henderson Alvarez, exactly 1 full season

[baulderdash77]

After tonight's game Henderson Alvarez has now played exactly 1 full season as the Blue Jays #3 starter.

Here's the results (unofficial). 206.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 4.08K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 4.17 xFIP

To me it's clear that Alvarez profiles as an innings eating #3 starter. He's the odd control power pitcher without the strikeouts. But he's shown he still belongs.

Do you agree? Do you see him as that innings eating #3, or a potential top 2 pitcher or lucky to be at this level?

[Randle McMurphy]

He needs to be a #4 or #5 starter at most next season if the Jays have hopes of contending. He'll haveto start K'ing batters more regularly if he wants to be anything more than that.

[Schad]

With those stats, he's a fifth starter at best. I've been championing the kid since he was in **** A-ball, but unless he can flash a plus pitch beyond the fastball and change, he'll never be a top three starter in the bigs.

[baulderdash77]

Of all qualified starters (119 of them) in the last 2 years with 190 IP as a starter, Henderson Alvarez would rank 67th in ERA. A guy who throws a 4.10 ERA on over 200 IP is a #3 starter on almost every single team in MLB.

It surprised me that only 119 starters have pitched over 190 IP as starters in the last 2 years. That was really surprising but I guess it's about 4 per team.

[CrymeTime]

You have to give him more time.

He was called up as a Low BB/9, Mid K/9 type pitcher.
Right now he's trying to (or Farrell wants him to be) an inning eater, allow the ball to get in play, with the ridiculos amount of injuries to the staff. So he'll bite the bullet now, and get back to his game next season.

Also, he's only 22.

[baulderdash77]

Actually taking a look at Morrow, Romero and Alvarez #'s it turns out that all 3 of them are in the below average 2nd starter to average/above average 3rd starter range.

Analyzing Henderson Alvarez has given me clarity.

We have a #2 starter, 2 #3 starters and a #5 starter (Villanueva) and a bunch of other guys who can be #5 starters or #6 starters. BTW- JA Happ ranks 3rd worst among all 119 qualified starters in the last 2 years so clearly he's not an option.

I know objectively our problem is the lack of an ace, but it's crystal clear now that that's our problem remains not having a 1A or 1B starter or for that matter we don't have a high end #2 starter either.

[Schad]

You have to give him more time.

He was called up as a Low BB/9, Mid K/9 type pitcher.
Right now he's trying to (or Farrell wants him to be) an inning eater, allow the ball to get in play, with the ridiculos amount of injuries to the staff. So he'll bite the bullet now, and get back to his game next season.

Also, he's only 22.

He has a K/9 of 3.34 through 142.2 IP...that's not just low, it's historically low. If he's to be even mediocre, that has to increase significantly; there isn't a pitcher in modern history who has succeeded while posting a strikeout rate that low.

[diddykong]

You have to give him more time.

He was called up as a Low BB/9, Mid K/9 type pitcher.
Right now he's trying to (or Farrell wants him to be) an inning eater, allow the ball to get in play, with the ridiculos amount of injuries to the staff. So he'll bite the bullet now, and get back to his game next season.

Also, he's only 22.

He has a K/9 of 3.34 through 142.2 IP...that's not just low, it's historically low. If he's to be even mediocre, that has to increase significantly; there isn't a pitcher in modern history who has succeeded while posting a strikeout rate that low.

your assuming he's gonna be like this for the rest of his career. i'm sure he'll work on his mechanics in the offseason. this is his first FULL season in the majors. he has jumped from AA to the majors and hasn't been back since last year. give the kid a break, he's only 22.

[SCF99]

for sure a keeper we are lucky enough that he could hold his own AND still develope with the big team. To be 22 and pitching in the majors, good enough to be a number 3 type i think we should consider our selves lucky. He could be still in the minors developing to his max potential and we could be looking at some like Sean Hill every 5 days.....

[satyr9]

Does anyone have an example of a succesful sub 4 k/9 starter or one who started that way and improved to even mediocre in that regard?

Closest recently that I can think of is a guy like Cahill, but he starts out as a 4.5-5 (which is basically the barest of bare minimums for starters) and gets into mid 6's (I'm sure there are a fair number of examples of guys who accomplish this and probably hundreds more who have short careers because they can't bring that rate up). Mostly, the guys who hang around with sucky k9's, don't really improve dramatically. Recent examples are guys like Porcello and Pelfrey. Both have developed into fairly decent back-end types, but I doubt anybody would be ecstatic with them as #3's. Even a guy like Buehrle, who's pretty much the most continually successful no k type in the last decade, hovers around 5k/9.

Now, I can see Alvarez improving to barely adequate in the k department and holding on as a bad 3, okay 4, and good 5, but unless someone can show me a decent history of guys who making large sustained leaps in k rate at the big league level, whether they're 19 or 40, I don't think dramatic increases in k9 nor continued success with such terrible strikeout numbers would be anything short of a massive statistical anomaly, meaning he's not gonna stay very good for very long unless he's the magic one in a million guy.

And I'm all for keeping him for the back-end as a 4 or 5, but if you can convince a single GM the way a few on here are convinced about Alvarez still having higher end potential, I'd move him for that value in a heartbeat.

edit: 3 guys in the last 20 years with prolonged careers as starters and k/9 under 4: A.Cook, K.Rueter, and C.Silva. Honorable mentions (just over): C.Mien-Wang and B.Anderson. Not exactly the company you'd want your #3 starter to keep. And the list only includes 13 players that had at least 300IP starting in the last 20 years (and 10 of them are the guys you'd think of as being a rung below an A.Laffey calibre, so saying he's 4/5 capable is still be quite hopeful for his statistical profile).

[limegameboy]

He's pretty horrible. #3? LOL, I dream of him being a consistent #5 for us.

[number15]

not long ago this season there was talk of an Alveraz center piced package could land us a 1A type pitcher........ i believe it was Philly who would have wanted Alveraz and pieces for an unsigned Cole Hamels

back then he was dominating and i would have hated to see him go... but now Jays would be lucky to get much for him anyway

[Sifu]

After tonight's game Henderson Alvarez has now played exactly 1 full season as the Blue Jays #3 starter.

Here's the results (unofficial). 206.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 4.08K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 4.17 xFIP

To me it's clear that Alvarez profiles as an innings eating #3 starter. He's the odd control power pitcher without the strikeouts. But he's shown he still belongs.

Do you agree? Do you see him as that innings eating #3, or a potential top 2 pitcher or lucky to be at this level?

The problem with looking at the 1 year average is that you're discounting how he's trending. Here are monthly breakdowns:
Aug 2011 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 6.26K/9, 1.49BB/9
Sept 2011 33.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 5.18K/9, 0.82BB/9
Apr 2012 32.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.52K/9, 2.52BB/9
May 2012 33.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 2.72K/9, 1.90BB/9
June 2012 36.1 IP, 5.20 ERA, 3.24K/9, 1.25BB/9
July 2012 24.0 IP, 5.63 ERA, 6.00K/9, 3.38BB/9
Aug 2012 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 2.70K/9, 4.32BB/9

I dunno where to get monthly xFIP numbers but looking at fangraphs 2011 xFIP is 3.38 and 2012 xFIP is 4.52.

You would hope that as Alvarez puts more service time in the league, he gets better and improves. The numbers show a definite decline.

He needs to spend the offseason to get a dependable third pitch like a slider or curve.

[MikeM]

Does anyone have an example of a succesful sub 4 k/9 starter or one who started that way and improved to even mediocre in that regard?

Closest recently that I can think of is a guy like Cahill, but he starts out as a 4.5-5 (which is basically the barest of bare minimums for starters) and gets into mid 6's (I'm sure there are a fair number of examples of guys who accomplish this and probably hundreds more who have short careers because they can't bring that rate up). Mostly, the guys who hang around with sucky k9's, don't really improve dramatically. Recent examples are guys like Porcello and Pelfrey. Both have developed into fairly decent back-end types, but I doubt anybody would be ecstatic with them as #3's. Even a guy like Buehrle, who's pretty much the most continually successful no k type in the last decade, hovers around 5k/9.

Now, I can see Alvarez improving to barely adequate in the k department and holding on as a bad 3, okay 4, and good 5, but unless someone can show me a decent history of guys who making large sustained leaps in k rate at the big league level, whether they're 19 or 40, I don't think dramatic increases in k9 nor continued success with such terrible strikeout numbers would be anything short of a massive statistical anomaly, meaning he's not gonna stay very good for very long unless he's the magic one in a million guy.

And I'm all for keeping him for the back-end as a 4 or 5, but if you can convince a single GM the way a few on here are convinced about Alvarez still having higher end potential, I'd move him for that value in a heartbeat.

edit: 3 guys in the last 20 years with prolonged careers as starters and k/9 under 4: A.Cook, K.Rueter, and C.Silva. Honorable mentions (just over): C.Mien-Wang and B.Anderson. Not exactly the company you'd want your #3 starter to keep. And the list only includes 13 players that had at least 300IP starting in the last 20 years (and 10 of them are the guys you'd think of as being a rung below an A.Laffey calibre, so saying he's 4/5 capable is still be quite hopeful for his statistical profile).

Ya but he's in the bigs before he's ready. If you take any of the current MLB SPs and put them in the bigs a good couple years before they were ready, you'd probably have a much bigger list of guys who started their MLB careers with K/9 numbers similar to Alvarez's. How many SP prospects do you see develop the final pieces of their repertoire during their final MILB years?

Well, Alvarez doesn't have those years. Frankly, I don't know if this is even a smart thing to do. If you want to avoid Vegas, maybe we should have just had him in AA throwing slider after slider or curve after curve or something. We have him up here to eat innings. It's kinda dumb.

[TorontoRaptures]

He's already an inning-eating #4/5. If he can develop a strikeout pitch and keep the ball down, he could be a front line starter. He's only 22. Sophmore slumps happen. Let's not forget how well he pitched at 21. He really needs to work on that 3rd pitch in the offseason.

[Secueritae]

If we were a play-off team, he would be a solid #4 or 5.

My Ideal pitching depth that will get us into the play-offs are:
Star pitcher
Morrow
Romero
Alvarez
Decent pick-up or max potential Hutch/Drabek


Long Relievers - Cecil, Laffey, Happ, or Litsch
Middle Relievers - Oliver, Jason Frasor, Lyon
Set-up - Janssen
Closer - Santos(If he does not become post-surgery BJ Ryan), or decent pick-up.

Problem is how are we going to get a star #1??? Unless we trade for 1, then Hamels is gone, and the other options are borderline #1 starters.

Remaining potential #1's - James Shields, Kyle Lohse, Colby Lewis, Brandon McCarthy, Shawn Marcum, Zach Greinke
I am hesitant to think we will get any of those, as AA and Rogers have proven to be cheap, and will probably label Romero as the Ace again come next year.