RealGM

Group 12: These Guys Aren't Getting Traded, But It'd Be Fun to See What Would Happen If They Did

25. Jose Bautista
24. Starlin Castro
23. Troy Tulowitzki
22. Matt Kemp
Tulo and Kemp are franchise players, the Cubs likely saved themselves $50 million or more in locking up Castro for seven years, and Bautista's next three years will look criminally cheap if he stays healthy and keeps swatting homers.

OK, there are theoretically some scenarios that could see one of these guys traded:

A. Tulowitzki can't stay healthy, at which point the Rockies decide to sell him at 45 cents on the dollar, picking up a ton of salary in the process.

B. Ninja Alex Anthopoulos trades Bautista for Guillermo Mota. Cynical media portray the move as another sign of Toronto's GM taking his relief-pitcher fetish too far … until Mota moves back to his old position of shortstop and hits 78 homers.

C. The Dodgers decide they don't feel like running $250 million payrolls anymore and stage an everything-must-go sale.

D. Starlin Castro stops throwing the ball into the stands from short, instead chucks one clear out of Wrigley, striking 12 saloongoers and causing a mass "Trade Starlin" movement.

E. The Nationals decide they're sick of Stephen Strasburg.

That's about it, really.

Group 13: The Kids

21. Brett Lawrie
20. Dylan Bundy
19. Manny Machado
18. Jurickson Profar
Prospecting isn't easy. For every Mike Trout and Bryce Harper there are many Todd Van Poppels and Brien Taylors. Still, baseball's compensation structure skews heavily in favor of teams going young. It's conceivable that Profar, Machado, and Bundy, none of whom have played even one-third of a season in the big leagues, will crash and burn rather than fulfill the world's massive expectations. But the mere possibility that these three megaprospects will become stars begs for a sky-high ranking, given that all three won't make much more than league minimum for three more years, and won't get to shop their services to the highest bidder for six. Oh, sure, you could point to the Rangers theoretically blocking Profar by keeping Elvis Andrus longer than they need to, Machado settling at third rather than at short, thus diminishing his overall value, or Bundy being a high school pitcher, which comes with plenty of baked-in risk. But let's be real: The talent's there, the opportunity will be there, and the Rangers and Orioles will pay each of these guys $20.5 million less than Vernon Wells will make next year. If anything, these rankings might be a little low.

Lawrie's a similar case, though not an identical one. He's played a full year in the big leagues, and been merely good rather than great, hitting .273/.324/.405 and playing very good defense (a knock against him coming up as a prospect without an obvious position). Funny thing about prospects: When they're in the minors, or rip off a quick 16-for-31 to start their major league career, the sky's the limit. But barring a Trout-like rookie season, cooler heads prevail and actual talent evaluation wins out. Lawrie is still an excellent prospect, someone with the skill set and youth (he's 22 and more than holding his own in the majors) to become a fringe MVP candidate one day. Still, if he'd run for prime minister a year ago, he might've won. Now, we're talking governor general at best.

Indiana Jones wrote:I think Brett Lawrie will emerge as our best overall player next season. That's my hunch, anyway.