What are the expectations of Brett Lawrie this season?

Mad-Eye Moody · Post #1 » by **Mad-Eye Moody** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:02 am

Obviously inspired from the Rasmus thread. Lawrie had a very impressive >200 ABs his first time up and Jays fans were excited. He didn't have a great season offensively last year (any theories why?), and I think everyone wants a better season out of him.

What do you expect from Lawrie? He is still very much capable of 20-25 HRs, .800-.850 OPS while playing very good defense. He'll also have less pressure on him with the revamped lineup (just like Rasmus). He will probably be hitting 5th behind EE or 6th behind Lind/DH.

Ado05 · Post #2 » by **Ado05** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:04 am

I expect him to hit around .280 and get 15-20 homers. He has power, he just didnt hit the ball out last year.

s e n s i · Post #3 » by **s e n s i** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:19 am

i'd anticipate an .775 OPS and a weighted on base avg upwards of .340

the guy is a defensive prodigy and will only be 23 when the season starts, so even if he isn't producing what we all expect from him, he does get significantly more rope than rasmus that's for sure. a breakout year would be fantastic but a slightly-better-than-2012 season will be just fine for me too.

Indiana Jones · Post #4 » by **Indiana Jones** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:29 am

I definitely see an improvement over last year. The addition of Reyes, Cabrera, Bonerface, and the expected return of a healthy Bautista should result in Lawrie coming to the plate with a lot of runners on base. That should lead to a lot more fastballs, and therefore a lot more mashing by Brett.

He has an incredibly fast bat, so with some patience and experience, he could easily be a .300 hitter. I don't know if he will become a 20+ HR guy, but I can certainly see him driving in 90+ runs next year, especially if he's batting fifth in our lineup. He probably do even better if we had someone more capable than Lind hitting behind him...

BigLeagueChew · Post #5 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:48 am

Just stay healthy for starters, it's hard getting into a groove or routine when you miss time from injuries.

.290 AVG/340 OBP 15 home runs, 25 steals

JoeyBats · Post #6 » by **JoeyBats** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:20 am

I think 20 HR might be much for Lawrie this season. I'm expecting somewhere between 12-15 HRs, with plus-plus defense, an average around .300 and good base-running.

Raptor_Guy · Post #7 » by **Raptor_Guy** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:55 am

15 HRs, 18 steals, .290 average (lots of singles) and awesome defence, not stellar but not bad for a guy my age :wink:

b0na f1de · Post #8 » by **b0na f1de** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:11 am

Outside swing% went up from 22.3% to 31.7%, and he traded over 10% of his flyballs for ground balls. I hate to be one of those guys who keep saying this but hopefully it was all Murphy's fault.

EventHorizon · Post #9 » by **EventHorizon** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:13 am

Breakout season due to help from Chad Mottola and batting with more guys on base. .310 BA 31 HR 115RBI Top 5 MVP, AS, GG.

raps4589 · Post #10 » by **raps4589** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:52 am

i beleive we will see more power this year, he will be down in the batting order, he isnt a leadoff guy as he was used there last year, i beleive lawrie can hit .270 15 hrs 80rbi

baulderdash77 · Post #11 » by **baulderdash77** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:53 am

EventHorizon wrote:Breakout season due to help from Chad Mottola and batting with more guys on base. .310 BA 31 HR 115RBI Top 5 MVP, AS, GG.

I sure hope you're right.

I'm going to guess something around .290 average, 800 OPS with 20 HR/ 20 SB and maybe sniffing his first Gold Glove. Basically something between his rookie call up and last season.

acemann · Post #12 » by **acemann** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:45 am

.350 OBP
.475 SLG %

Gold glove defense

TheMainEvent · Post #13 » by **TheMainEvent** » Wed Nov 28, 2012 10:05 pm

.350 avg, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 95 runs, 30 SBs, .400 OBP, .950 OPS.

Aside from setting myself up for depression and disappointment, I don't see a reason why my expectations should be 'reasonable'. =)

Hehe, just saw that EventHorizon expects more RBIs than I do. Hmmm... then I up mine to 120 RBIs!

HEDOBALL · Post #14 » by **HEDOBALL** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:35 am

Understand and recognize the difference between playing hard and playing reckless.

Hendrix · Post #15 » by **Hendrix** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:01 am

I don't really understand why he got moved from 2b.

I know he doesn't have a typical 2b body. But the guy has amazing range at 3b, and would equate to very good range over at 2b. It's too bad he never stuck there, because a 2b with his bat would be pretty valuable.

s e n s i · Post #16 » by **s e n s i** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:58 am

Hendrix wrote:I don't really understand why he got moved from 2b.

I know he doesn't have a typical 2b body. But the guy has amazing range at 3b, and would equate to very good range over at 2b. It's too bad he never stuck there, because a 2b with his bat would be pretty valuable.

i think it was the right move. at the time we didn't have an in-house player here nor in the minors (and i still don't even think we do) capable of playing 3B in the long term. it was a revolving door at 3B in 2011 with nix, EE (who was a disaster there, and was nearly run out of town because of it thanks to people like me), johnny mac, bautista, mccoy all getting burn there. bautista stated he preferred RF, and he gets what he wants after a season and a half of near-bondsian performance. also lawrie has a cannon arm and unfathomable agility and reflexes that wouldn't be optimized at 2B. he's been pretty elite defensively over at 3rd and i think his bat will eventually be elite there as well.

N31L · Post #17 » by **N31L** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:45 am

TheMainEvent wrote:.350 avg, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 95 runs, 30 SBs, .400 OBP, .950 OPS.

Aside from setting myself up for depression and disappointment, I don't see a reason why my expectations should be 'reasonable'. =)

Hehe, just saw that EventHorizon expects more RBIs than I do. Hmmm... then I up mine to 120 RBIs!

EventHorizon wrote:Breakout season due to help from Chad Mottola and batting with more guys on base. .310 BA 31 HR 115RBI Top 5 MVP, AS, GG.

You guys should probably leave.

ballislife · Post #18 » by **ballislife** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 8:26 am

He's still so young... the guy has a lot of potential to be great... last season was basically his first full season in the big leagues. I think he'll improve and he'll hit 20-25 HR next season. Good D and good hitting... hes going to be the x-factor for the Jays.

The_Hater · Post #19 » by **The_Hater** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:39 pm

Hendrix wrote:I don't really understand why he got moved from 2b.

I know he doesn't have a typical 2b body. But the guy has amazing range at 3b, and would equate to very good range over at 2b. It's too bad he never stuck there, because a 2b with his bat would be pretty valuable.

I remember reading that he was struggling as a 2B in the minor leagues around the time of the trade which seems hard to believe watching him at 3B. Maybe people got impatient on him too quickly and changed his position or maybe he's a perfect 3B but would have been an average 2B?

distracted · Post #20 » by **distracted** » Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:51 pm

The_Hater wrote:I remember reading that he was struggling as a 2B in the minor leagues around the time of the trade which seems hard to believe watching him at 3B. Maybe people got impatient on him too quickly and changed his position or maybe he's a perfect 3B but would have been an average 2B?

Could be a few things. At second his arm isn't as valuable, so he gains an advantage there playing third. While he did show signs of being good at it last year, maybe he's not as accurate throwing across his body on the move (notwithstanding a few highlight plays into foul territory last year). Based on how he played third I imagine his lateral movement should have been fine.

We don't really have any evidence on how his transition was on 6-4-3 double plays.

It could be something as simple as he gets a better read off the bat at the angle from third base. I'm not saying that's the case or it's common, but it's certainly a possibility. A split second is everything in the infield.