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OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:00 pm
by dagger
Signed with the Braves for $75m over five years which is Jose money. Not bad for a guy with a 2.6 WAR.
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:05 pm
by UN-Owen
The Rays are fools for letting their players hit free-agency
They should've traded Carl Crawford when they had a chance. Ditto for Upton.
The return on those 2 players would've been substantial
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:17 pm
by Redeemer
UN-Owen wrote:The Rays are fools for letting their players hit free-agency
They should've traded Carl Crawford when they had a chance. Ditto for Upton.
The return on those 2 players would've been substantial
they already have a stacked minor league system, i think it would be jsut too much for them too control
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:22 pm
by s e n s i
$2m more per yr than jose actually. an overpayment in comparison to the deals other OFs have gotten the past couple years. he'll now be making more than players like jones, granderson, beltran...and way more than mccutchen, victorino, and span. but i guess they need someone fill the void left by michael bourn and were willing to overpay to do it (though upton isn't nearly as good as bourn imo).
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:25 pm
by Redeemer
s e n s i wrote:$2m more per yr than jose actually. an overpayment in comparison to the deals other OFs have gotten the past couple years. he'll now be making more than players like jones, granderson, beltran...and way more than mccutchen, victorino, and span. but i guess they need someone fill the void left by michael bourn and were willing to overpay to do it (though upton isn't nearly as good as bourn imo).
http://media.lehighvalleylive.com/sport ... _large.jpg
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:48 pm
by tiger7
Good thing he's in Atlanta now he used to kill us every game.
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:54 pm
by Ado05
s e n s i wrote:$2m more per yr than jose actually. an overpayment in comparison to the deals other OFs have gotten the past couple years. he'll now be making more than players like jones, granderson, beltran...and way more than mccutchen, victorino, and span. but i guess they need someone fill the void left by michael bourn and were willing to overpay to do it (though upton isn't nearly as good as bourn imo).
Agreed. Bourn is probably going to get somewhere near 100 mill and Swisher might actually get near 100 mill too!
Love the sig by the way
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:02 am
by Skin Blues
s e n s i wrote:he'll now be making more than players like jones, granderson, beltran...and way more than mccutchen, victorino, and span. but i guess they need someone fill the void left by michael bourn and were willing to overpay to do it (though upton isn't nearly as good as bourn imo).
Jones and Granderson had arb years left when they signed their contracts, McCutchen had 4 years of team control remaining when he signed his contract, Victorino is 32 years old and coming off of a down year, Denard Span is... well, he's Denard Span. You have to compare him to players that signed as free agents. This is fair market value for BJ Upton. He's put up $83M of value over the past 5 seasons and is only 28 years old. I'd give it even odds that he turns out to be decent value for the Braves. I agree that Bourn is better than Upton, but I guess they wanted to go the cheaper route.
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:48 am
by Gibby
This is a good value deal for the Braves. I'm almost positive he'll be worth $75 million in less then 5 years
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:14 am
by s e n s i
Skin Blues wrote:s e n s i wrote:he'll now be making more than players like jones, granderson, beltran...and way more than mccutchen, victorino, and span. but i guess they need someone fill the void left by michael bourn and were willing to overpay to do it (though upton isn't nearly as good as bourn imo).
Jones and Granderson had arb years left when they signed their contracts, McCutchen had 4 years of team control remaining when he signed his contract, Victorino is 32 years old and coming off of a down year, Denard Span is... well, he's Denard Span. You have to compare him to players that signed as free agents. This is fair market value for BJ Upton. He's put up $83M of value over the past 5 seasons and is only 28 years old. I'd give it even odds that he turns out to be decent value for the Braves. I agree that Bourn is better than Upton, but I guess they wanted to go the cheaper route.
yah that's true and i don't think he's massively overpaid by any means, certainly not in the realm of a carl crawford or jayson werth or alfonso soriano that's for sure, only slightly overpaid by say a couple mil per year imo. there just haven't been many other FA outfielders around his production level the past few years to compare him to, so i just went with dave cameron's 4yr/52m projection made at the beginning of the month as a benchmark for what would be a fair deal, even a coup, for bossman junior and compared his AAV to outfielders ~better than him. it's really not an awful deal and you're right, it's much closer to market value for a player who can still produce at the back-end of this deal than an albatross for sure.
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:28 am
by Tyrone Slothrop
UN-Owen wrote:The Rays are fools for letting their players hit free-agency
They should've traded Carl Crawford when they had a chance. Ditto for Upton.
The return on those 2 players would've been substantial
Smart in hindsight. But they had a chance to win a World Series both of these years. Tough to be sellers at the deadline in those circumstances.
Don't doubt the GM that is going to be paying Evan Longoria an average of 13.6 million dollars a year over the next ten years. He knows what he's doing.
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:40 am
by CapeCrusader
UN-Owen wrote:The Rays are fools for letting their players hit free-agency
They should've traded Carl Crawford when they had a chance. Ditto for Upton.
The return on those 2 players would've been substantial
I dunno about Crawford. But it was obvious that Upton was going back to Tampa, especially with Jennings there to take over any role left over. Should of tried to get some value for him.
But otherwise good for ATL. I think Upton will do pretty good in the NL.
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:59 am
by Hendrix
dagger wrote:Signed with the Braves for $75m over five years which is Jose money. Not bad for a guy with a 2.6 WAR.
I think saying it's "Jose Money", kind of attaches an incorrect connotation to it. Bautista is super underpaid. If he got a contract that was representative of what he is worth it would probably be closer to 125+/5.
Upton over the last 6 years has averaged 3.9 WAR. Based on Fangraph's 'value' calculation he's been worth $100 million for those 6 years. He's 28 years old, so the contract seems reasonable to me.
Good for the Jays though.
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:54 am
by Waylon Mercy
I'm glad he's out of the AL East
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:34 pm
by The_Hater
How in the world is BJ Upton worth $15 million a year? He showed promise in 2007 and has been a middling outfielder ever since. I think people are still stuck in the 'unlimited potential' tag that was associated with him many moons ago.
Perhaps they were thinking this was Justin Upton?!?
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:59 pm
by distracted
The_Hater wrote:How in the world is BJ Upton worth $15 million a year? He showed promise in 2007 and has been a middling outfielder ever since. I think people are still stuck in the 'unlimited potential' tag that was associated with him many moons ago.
Perhaps they were thinking this was Justin Upton?!?
That's right on market value. Assuming the standard $5M/WAR and 5% inflation he'd need to produce (and assuming a flat deal):
Age 28: 3.0 WAR
Age 29: 2.9 WAR
Age 30: 2.7 WAR
Age 31: 2.6 WAR
Age 32: 2.5 WAR
It's likely he outperforms his deal for the first few years and performs at/under performs his deal in the last couple, but this is fair market value for a free agent,
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:35 pm
by The_Hater
How is his WAR numbers that high then? His previously strong walk totals are shrinking to the point that his OBP was under .300 last season. His OPS sits around .750 season after season. I've never heard that he plays some sort of GG defense but maybe I'm wrong. The only thing that I can see as a huge plus is he's been healthy his entire career.
Since when did a 750 OPS and average defense become $15 million a season?
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:44 pm
by Modern_epic
The_Hater wrote:How is his WAR numbers that high then? His previously strong walk totals are shrinking to the point that his OBP was under .300 last season. His OPS sits around .750 season after season. I've never heard that he plays some sort of GG defense but maybe I'm wrong. The only thing that I can see as a huge plus is he's been healthy his entire career.
Since when did a 750 OPS and average defense in center field become $15 million a season?
Fixed it for you.
And this year, obviously. Salary inflation keeps rising, and hitting is down across the board over the past few years.
Re: OT: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:51 pm
by Randle McMurphy
This would be a reason for the Jays to extend Rasmus right now if they actually believe in him. He hasn't managed to do it yet, but it would not be surprising to see him become what Upton was to the Rays over the next few seasons.
Re: BJ Upton leaves the AL East for Atlanta
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 8:30 pm
by UN-Owen
Tyrone Slothrop wrote:UN-Owen wrote:The Rays are fools for letting their players hit free-agency
They should've traded Carl Crawford when they had a chance. Ditto for Upton.
The return on those 2 players would've been substantial
Smart in hindsight. But they had a chance to win a World Series both of these years.
Tough to be sellers at the deadline in those circumstances.Don't doubt the GM that is going to be paying Evan Longoria an average of 13.6 million dollars a year over the next ten years. He knows what he's doing.
Not as tough as it is to see your best outfielder leave to a division rival
It's not a hindsight thing. You're on the tracks and you can see the train is coming
