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ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:46 am
by dagger
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/875 ... years-come


There are two reasons why the Mets might be reluctant to sign Dickey. Of course, both reasons break down under the slightest bit of inspection.

First off, Dickey turned 38 years old in October. He's nine months older than Alex Rodriguez, 16 months older than Lance Berkman, and to some observers that makes him suspect.

But to anyone who knows anything about knuckleball pitchers, Dickey's age is a feature, not a bug. The knuckleball is so difficult to master that historically, knuckleballers don't peak until their mid-to-late 30s. Yet the pitch is so easy on the arm — and it requires so little velocity — that those who throw it tend to pitch well into their mid-40s.

The most successful knuckleball pitcher of the last 25 years was Tim Wakefield. Wakefield had his best season when he was 28, his first season with the Red Sox, when he had a 2.95 ERA in 195 innings — he accumulated 4.7 bWAR (wins above replacement, as calculated by baseball-reference.com). His second-best season? It was 2005 — when he was 38 years old.

From ages 33 to 37, Wakefield was worth 10.5 bWAR. From ages 38 to 42, Wakefield was worth 12.4 bWAR. He was better at ages 41-42 than he was at ages 32-33.

Tom Candiotti is the other prominent knuckleball pitcher of the last quarter-century, but he wasn't a strict knuckler, as he also threw a curveball a decent amount of the time. Candiotti had a pretty broad peak from ages 28 to 35, going over 4 bWAR six times in eight years, but was still effective until age 40, when he threw 201 innings with a 4.84 ERA in the height of the juiced era.

If we go back to the 1970s and 1980s, we see a lot more knuckleballers, and we see a lot more guys pitch well into their 40s. From age 38 to age 41, Phil Niekro led the NL in losses four years in a row. That doesn't sound good — until you realize he led the league in starts all four years, in innings and complete games three times, and one year led the league in wins and losses.

The other main criticism of Dickey is that he's a one-year wonder who hasn't shown the ability to sustain this level of success. Which is wrong on two separate counts.

For one, Dickey is hardly a one-year wonder. While he has never pitched quite as well as he did in 2012 — few pitchers have — he was one of the 15 best pitchers in the NL in both 2010 and 2011. Consider this:

R.A. Dickey, 2010–2012: 91 starts, 617 IP, 2.95 ERA, 468 Ks, 150 walks
Zack Greinke, 2010–2012: 95 starts, 604 IP, 3.83 ERA, 582 Ks, 154 walks

In Greinke's defense, he was the better pitcher in 2009. In Dickey's defense, Greinke signed for three times as long and nearly six times as much money as Dickey requested from the Mets. To repay Dickey's Cy Young performance this season, not only did the Mets turn down his request, they embarked on a misguided character assassination campaign against Dickey in the media. Dickey addressed his contract situation at the Mets' holiday party? HE HAD THE AUDACITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS FROM REPORTERS?! The nerve of that guy.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:06 am
by Randle McMurphy
But I thought everybody was saying this was a terrible move from the Jays? I guess everybody doesn't count Dave Cameron, Jay Jaffe, and Rany Jazayerli.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:09 am
by TR50
This was posted in the other thread but I'm happy you posted this separately, dagger. Within it is another article with a take on the deal, from both sides.

I think this is the perfect read for skeptics and anyone interested in the Blue Jays.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:46 am
by TheDoctor
The other moves had me intrigued and fully back to watch the Jays next year, but this move really gets me going. Why? I've always loved the knuckleball. I was a hardcore Blue Jays fan from as early as I can remember (around 82-83 is when I went to my first game as a kid), and grew up with the Jays. I loved watching even the decidedly average knucklers like Hough and Candiotti, thought Wakefield was awesome when he came on the scene, but the mid-90s labour stuff stopped me dead and coincided with my main focus switching to the Raptors for good.

But I'm pumped to buy tickets to see Dickey and this Jays team next year, and will be watching a lot of games... with a priority to his starts.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:51 am
by Randle McMurphy
TheDoctor wrote:The other moves had me intrigued and fully back to watch the Jays next year, but this move really gets me going. Why? I've always loved the knuckleball. I was a hardcore Blue Jays fan from as early as I can remember (around 82-83 is when I went to my first game as a kid), and grew up with the Jays. I loved watching even the decidedly average knucklers like Hough and Candiotti, thought Wakefield was awesome when he came on the scene, but the mid-90s labour stuff stopped me dead and coincided with my main focus switching to the Raptors for good.

But I'm pumped to buy tickets to see Dickey and this Jays team next year, and will be watching a lot of games... with a priority to his starts.

I tried not to miss many of Dickey's starts last season, especially when he was on his unhittable/scoreless stretch of nearly 50 innings. Just so fun to watch.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:55 am
by BigLeagueChew
Everyone tries a knuckleball playing catch, eventually you figure out if its worth even trying anymore or if you can actually make one dance sometimes.

Someone on my team growing up lost his two front teeth because his teammate threw him a knuckleball playing catch witout warning but the guy wasn't very good either.

Who said Canadians only lose teeth playing hockey?

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:20 am
by Randle McMurphy
R.A. Dickey was 2nd in the MLB in swinging strike percentage last season just behind Cole Hamels and just ahead of guys like Verlander, Darvish, and Sabathia.

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:34 am
by TheDoctor
BigLeagueChew wrote:Everyone tries a knuckleball playing catch, eventually you figure out if its worth even trying anymore or if you can actually make one dance sometimes.

Someone on my team growing up lost his two front teeth because his teammate threw him a knuckleball playing catch witout warning but the guy wasn't very good either.

Who said Canadians only lose teeth playing hockey?


I can throw a decent knuckleball with a softball. :laugh: And yes, that has irritated enough teammates warming up over the years. :D

Re: ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:48 am
by Skin Blues
I've mastered the knuckleball. Got a good hard one going, most people just lob it. Hit a few teammates over the years but they get used to it. I especially like throwing it from 3B in pre-inning warmups.