ARTICLE: R.A Dickey: Will be stymying batters for years
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:46 am
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/875 ... years-come
There are two reasons why the Mets might be reluctant to sign Dickey. Of course, both reasons break down under the slightest bit of inspection.
First off, Dickey turned 38 years old in October. He's nine months older than Alex Rodriguez, 16 months older than Lance Berkman, and to some observers that makes him suspect.
But to anyone who knows anything about knuckleball pitchers, Dickey's age is a feature, not a bug. The knuckleball is so difficult to master that historically, knuckleballers don't peak until their mid-to-late 30s. Yet the pitch is so easy on the arm — and it requires so little velocity — that those who throw it tend to pitch well into their mid-40s.
The most successful knuckleball pitcher of the last 25 years was Tim Wakefield. Wakefield had his best season when he was 28, his first season with the Red Sox, when he had a 2.95 ERA in 195 innings — he accumulated 4.7 bWAR (wins above replacement, as calculated by baseball-reference.com). His second-best season? It was 2005 — when he was 38 years old.
From ages 33 to 37, Wakefield was worth 10.5 bWAR. From ages 38 to 42, Wakefield was worth 12.4 bWAR. He was better at ages 41-42 than he was at ages 32-33.
Tom Candiotti is the other prominent knuckleball pitcher of the last quarter-century, but he wasn't a strict knuckler, as he also threw a curveball a decent amount of the time. Candiotti had a pretty broad peak from ages 28 to 35, going over 4 bWAR six times in eight years, but was still effective until age 40, when he threw 201 innings with a 4.84 ERA in the height of the juiced era.
If we go back to the 1970s and 1980s, we see a lot more knuckleballers, and we see a lot more guys pitch well into their 40s. From age 38 to age 41, Phil Niekro led the NL in losses four years in a row. That doesn't sound good — until you realize he led the league in starts all four years, in innings and complete games three times, and one year led the league in wins and losses.
The other main criticism of Dickey is that he's a one-year wonder who hasn't shown the ability to sustain this level of success. Which is wrong on two separate counts.
For one, Dickey is hardly a one-year wonder. While he has never pitched quite as well as he did in 2012 — few pitchers have — he was one of the 15 best pitchers in the NL in both 2010 and 2011. Consider this:
R.A. Dickey, 2010–2012: 91 starts, 617 IP, 2.95 ERA, 468 Ks, 150 walks
Zack Greinke, 2010–2012: 95 starts, 604 IP, 3.83 ERA, 582 Ks, 154 walks
In Greinke's defense, he was the better pitcher in 2009. In Dickey's defense, Greinke signed for three times as long and nearly six times as much money as Dickey requested from the Mets. To repay Dickey's Cy Young performance this season, not only did the Mets turn down his request, they embarked on a misguided character assassination campaign against Dickey in the media. Dickey addressed his contract situation at the Mets' holiday party? HE HAD THE AUDACITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS FROM REPORTERS?! The nerve of that guy.