RealGM

What do you think?

Over, definitely.

Does this include playoffs?

92 sellouts book it

hopefully over. also i wonder how many nat tv games the jays get as well. o/u of 5.5 or thereabouts?

I saw somewhere that Dan Shulman was pushing for three.

I said under but if the team is competitive, as they should be, no doubt over

DrSteveBrule wrote:92 sellouts book it

How many for a sell out? 50+ k? I say 6-10 sell outs but I would say 40 or more games with 40+k

If it's 29.5 o/u 40k fans then it's probably right on the line. I don't think they'll have 30 games at 50k though, probably only 5 games.

Wow, selling out is a big thing. Maybe people buy into tickets just because of the hype, but baseball has a ways to go imo to convince people that heading downtown for 3hrs+ on a weeknight is worth the trip and cost.

They've lost a generation of fans.

Ya. I'd put it at only about 5-8 sell outs.

(unless the pennant chase comes right down to the last 2-3 weeks, then there is potential for more)

Under.

I'm hoping for 35,000 average (not including playoffs )

J-Roc wrote:Wow, selling out is a big thing. Maybe people buy into tickets just because of the hype, but baseball has a ways to go imo to convince people that heading downtown for 3hrs+ on a weeknight is worth the trip and cost.

They've lost a generation of fans.

Not all of us are stuck out in suburbia - the new generation of jays fans walks to the rogers centre.

When did the Jays start selling out games regularly during the 80s? It's difficult to compare anything to the WS years since there was a gradual lead up to those years. The Jays were good for quite a while before they actually won those titles, so every time they made the playoffs, more fans came aboard to see if they could do it the next time. It really was a perfect storm in building a fanbase.

That's why I'm not surprised when sports teams with a long history of losing suddenly make the playoffs one year and go far, and people are wondering why a winning team is still not selling out even playoff games. Surprise playoff runs or first-time playoff runs don't have the fanbases developed yet.

Having the new dome started the real selling out. So 1989.

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I honestly still say under, it takes a lot to sell out the dome. Which isn't to say there won't be a lot of games of 40 000+ , it's just a sell out is alooot of people. Hope I'm wrong!

So what's a reasonable reg season attendence figure this season? They were at 1.6, 1.8 and 2.0 million the past 3 seasons. The team was at 4.0 million in 1993 and on pace for 4.0 million in 1994 when the strike hit, they haven't been higher than 2.9 milion in any season since that time.

Can the team reasonably top 3 million this year?

The_Hater wrote:So what's a reasonable reg season attendence figure this season? They were at 1.6, 1.8 and 2.0 million the past 3 seasons. The team was at 4.0 million in 1993 and on pace for 4.0 million in 1994 when the strike hit, they haven't been higher than 2.9 milion in any season since that time.

Can the team reasonably top 3 million this year?

I think with the off-season hype the Jays are looking at somewhere from 2.6-3.0m attendance next year. And that is being incredibly optimistic IMO. Before the wheels totally fell off last year and late summer attendance dropped off, the Jays were on pace for about 2.2m last year (so I'll use 27k/gm as a base instead of 25k). You almost never see more than a 8k/gm jump from year to year anywhere without a new stadium to go with it, but in the Jays case, given all the market conditions, I'll say they achieve that based off hype and anything at or above expectations will draw more as the year progresses. Really if this team gets anywhere near 3m, it would be the most monstrous fan rejuvenation in NA sports history (probably hyperbole 'cause I'm no historian, but it would be huge). A 50% increase in ticket sales would be absolutely absurd, but I think with team success it could come quite close to that, although it's purely speculative; I just think the average TOR sports fan has been dying inside for going on at least a decade and even a glimmer of sunshine will bring us out in droves (I wanted to mix more metaphors, but I'm lazy).

And even with all that, 30 sell outs is crazy. Pretty much max is home opener, any weekend Yankee or Red Sox games, 1-2 games on long weekends, and potentially if the games are decisive for the playoff hunt in the last two weeks. I have no idea how many weekend NYY and BOS series there are, but max it's 12 games (won't get sellouts on any Friday nights) plus a max of 8 for the long weekends. That's 21 assuming that NYY and BOS only play in TOR on weekends and none of them on long weekends, which is of course, totally absurd. Now 30 games over 40k, that sounds like an interesting over/under (albeit one any bettor would still take the under on) in terms of projections on attendance. If the Jays start drawing sellouts to mid-week night games or random weekend series against CLE or MIN, I'll be absolutely astonished.

Attendance will definitely increase, but still going under. Even just 30,000-40,000 per would be great. Remember, the dome has a much larger capacity than many of these newer stadiums and is six biggest in the MLB.