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History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:02 pm
by LittleOzzy
You can’t predict Baseball. The Yankees’ very own John Sterling always says that.
And like most of the things out of the Yankees’ infamous radio announcer’s mouth, he’s only half right. You never know who is going to win a World Series.
If you did, the Angels would have won in 2012, the Red Sox in 2011, the Phillies in 2010 and so on.
You never thought the Giants would sweep the Tigers or the Tigers would sweep the Yankees last season. And raise your hand if you had the Orioles and Athletics in the postseason in 2012?
Not one hand?
Didn’t think so.
The great thing and the great contradiction to this phenomenon is that baseball has the most advanced metrics and the richest history with statistical backing of any of the major sports.
Jose Reyes has never played on turf, Josh Johnson has never pitched in the AL and has issues staying healthy, Mark Buehrle has never pitched in the AL East, R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer who returns to the American League and is coming off a Cy Young season at the age of 38.
Jose Bautista is coming off of injury, Melky Cabrera will play for the first time after steroid allegations and Brandon Morrow will once again try to stay healthy while Ricky Romero and Brett Lawrie try to bounce back.
The Jays are no sure thing, just like the Yankees’ health, the Red Sox talent, the Orioles peripherals and the Rays lack of offense are no sure things either.
The difference is teams like the Orioles, Rays and Yankees, all of whom won 90 games or more last season, do not have the burden of proof going into 2013.
The Yankees have reached the postseason every year since 1995 except 2008 (where they still won 89 games), in the face of injuries, other team’s recent spending sprees and everything else.
The Rays have contended for five years now.
The Orioles had their breakout season.
The Red Sox won a title six years ago and were in the playoffs as recently as 2009.
The Blue Jays are a franchise out of the postseason picture since the early 1990′s.
http://baseballnewssource.com/mlb/ameri ... ays/13912/
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:14 pm
by Raps in 4
What's the deal with all the negative threads Ozzy!?
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:18 pm
by LittleOzzy
UssjTrunks wrote:What's the deal with all the negative threads Ozzy!?
Just giving the other side of things
Trying to temper my expectations.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:05 pm
by distracted
I'd be interested to know the last team that Vegas favoured who actually won the world series.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:53 pm
by Randle McMurphy
LittleOzzy wrote:Trying to temper my expectations.
Why? The Jays are one of the best teams in baseball heading into 2013...enjoy it.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:57 pm
by Parataxis
Luckily, this is baseball, and not proofball. The burden of proof is irrelevant to what happens next season. The only burden that the Jays need to worry about is the burden of trying to win enough games... just like every other team.
History doesn't get you a pass.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:26 pm
by s e n s i
oh gosh...jose reyes has never played on turf?!?!? what kind of embarrassing reasoning is that? the guy has played on DIRT -- which is a harder surface than turf as crazy as that may sound for the author -- for his entire career, and suddenly we're supposed to worry about the possible repercussions of him now playing on a softer surface? gawbige article that reads like bleacher report.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:42 pm
by gei
Who cares. Attitude is everything - I'm gearing myself up for the WS baby
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:10 pm
by Skin Blues
What a BS article. Not that I think the Jays are likely to win the World Series (even the optimistic Vegas odds says there's a 90% chance they don't win it). The reasoning in that article is pretty much, "since they're the best team they won't win because the best team rarely wins". Well, no sh*t Sherlock. You know who wins the world Series even less often than the favoured team? Everybody else.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 12:45 am
by sule
If you can't predict baseball, then logically, wouldn't that nullify the very argument that history doesn't favour the Blue Jays?
If we can't necessarily predict the outcomes in baseball based on historical precedence, then logically the Jays have an equal chance of both making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.
I guess we can only say that as of now the Jays have a greater likelihood of not making the playoffs simply due to the nature of the playoff format. But that every game we play in the regular season, and every win we get in the regular season increases our probability for making the post-season.
And that the playoffs become 50/50 chance to win each series all the way through to the world series.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 2:36 am
by Hendrix
sule wrote:If you can't predict baseball, then logically, wouldn't that nullify the very argument that history doesn't favour the Blue Jays?.
Seriously.
Also.. This.
The Yankees have reached the postseason every year since 1995 except 2008 (where they still won 89 games), in the face of injuries, other team’s recent spending sprees and everything else.
Obviously you can't 100% predict baseball. But, you can make educated guesses based on expected values. Based on the above quote it would have been a pretty good educated guess/prediction to bet on the Yanks over this time frame.
Baseball is like poker. You get pocket aces, and go all in preflop you have an 80% chance to win. Just because your pocket aces lost the last couple times doesn't mean you start folding pocket aces now. And, just because some teams with the best starting lineup in baseball didn't win world series' doesn't mean you don't try and put the best possible team together. In poker you want the best hand, and in baseball you want to assemble the best team. After that, it's up to the poker/baseball Gods.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 4:22 pm
by raps4589
i agree with ozzy. you gotta look at it from both sides. this team is being judged on paper right now. theres so much question marks. johnson and reyes in the AL. will bautista be good?
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 6:09 pm
by dagger
LittleOzzy wrote:UssjTrunks wrote:What's the deal with all the negative threads Ozzy!?
Just giving the other side of things
Trying to temper my expectations.
Typical Toronto sports fan. More comfortable losing and praying for lottery picks.
June must be your biggest month.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 6:11 pm
by dagger
raps4589 wrote:i agree with ozzy. you gotta look at it from both sides. this team is being judged on paper right now. theres so much question marks. johnson and reyes in the AL. will bautista be good?
Turf cuts both ways. At the plate, a good contact hitter can run a few more balls through the infield. And as for power, well, it's not as if the Rogers Centre holds back good power hitters.
How about R.A. Dickey getting to throw his knuckler in a dome, at batters who have never seen it?
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 6:46 pm
by LittleOzzy
dagger wrote:LittleOzzy wrote:UssjTrunks wrote:What's the deal with all the negative threads Ozzy!?
Just giving the other side of things
Trying to temper my expectations.
Typical Toronto sports fan. More comfortable losing and praying for lottery picks.
June must be your biggest month.
Not praying for that at all, I have just been disappointed too often following Toronto teams.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 6:57 pm
by Mak
Negative articles draw more attention and reaction. This is a perfect case of it. It is all speculation. One can write "History Favours the Toronto Blue Jays" and come with an example of player success in their particular situation.
Re: History Does Not Favour the Toronto Blue Jays
Posted: Tue Jan 1, 2013 8:23 pm
by kavan
Well, I am looking forward to watching them meet expectations even though I think once the talent is there you kind of just have to lay the rest up to how you play on the field. We have been fans for years and real fans give the team a shot every year. When the fans are only ones routing for a team usually never ends too well. This year we have the support or the recognition of the league. We just have to show up to play ball. If anything it should be a fun team to watch! Go Jays!