Where Our Runs Come From

[Schad]

Thought this might be a fun exercise...best I'm aware, the numbers are accurate through the April 15th game. These are the scoring types for the at-bats which produced the runs, with the total numbers of runs produced by that type:

From home runs - 23
From doubles - 12
From singles - 5
From sacrifice flies - 5
From walks - 1
From ground outs - 1
From fielders' choices - 1
From errors - 1
From double plays - 1
From foul outs - 1

45.1% of our runs have come from homers; 68.6% have come from XBHs. And of those five minuscule runs from singles, two came on the same play...only on four occasions, in nearly five hundred plate appearances, have we driven in a run with a single. Yet we've hit four times that many home runs. Hell, we have more instances of players knocking in runs on non-sacrifice outs than we do from the base unit of offense.


Balance!

[J-Roc]

In baseball, is there a better balance to aim for between runs from HR's vs runs from other hits? Do we compare to previous playoff teams? Or does it just come down to whether you win or lose, and every good team does it differently?

[distracted]

I think this is just a function of low team average so far.

[satyr9]

In baseball, is there a better balance to aim for between runs from HR's vs runs from other hits? Do we compare to previous playoff teams? Or does it just come down to whether you win or lose, and every good team does it differently?

I think there are high power teams where the ratios are kind of like this, but in the Jays case this year, it's solely because of how fantasmagorically horrific the OBP as a collective has been. Singles don't often produce runs with no men on.

Reyes-43-.465
Kawasaki-10-.400
Cabrera-57-.351
Rasmus-45-.311
Encarnacion-56-.286
Bautista-39-.282
DeRosa-29-.276
Lind-37-.270
Arencibia-49-.265
Davis-23-.261
Blanco-8-.250
Izturis-37-.243
Bonifacio-48-.229

Those are PA and OBP numbers and when you've only got 2 guys over .300 OBP on the entire team (I miss you Reyes ) it's actually astonishing the HR has helped as much as it has. Granted Reyes was around for most of the games to date.

So while there've been some Yankee teams that had a similar ratio of runs by HR (although I doubt the singles would ever be anywhere near that low on any team after a reasonable sample), they did not look like this by any stretch of the imagination.

All that being said, 50PA per player is nothing, I'm not making statements about the team at all, just in the context of the thread.

[Santoki]

In baseball, is there a better balance to aim for between runs from HR's vs runs from other hits? Do we compare to previous playoff teams? Or does it just come down to whether you win or lose, and every good team does it differently?

I think there are high power teams where the ratios are kind of like this, but in the Jays case this year, it's solely because of how fantasmagorically horrific the OBP as a collective has been. Singles don't often produce runs with no men on.

Reyes-43-.465
Kawasaki-10-.400
Cabrera-57-.351
Rasmus-45-.311
Encarnacion-56-.286
Bautista-39-.282
DeRosa-29-.276
Lind-37-.270
Arencibia-49-.265
Davis-23-.261
Blanco-8-.250
Izturis-37-.243
Bonifacio-48-.229

Those are PA and OBP numbers and when you've only got 2 guys over .300 OBP on the entire team (I miss you Reyes ) it's actually astonishing the HR has helped as much as it has. Granted Reyes was around for most of the games to date.

So while there've been some Yankee teams that had a similar ratio of runs by HR (although I doubt the singles would ever be anywhere near that low on any team after a reasonable sample), they did not look like this by any stretch of the imagination.

All that being said, 50PA per player is nothing, I'm not making statements about the team at all, just in the context of the thread.

And our two lowest OBP guys are both candidates for the leadoff position. Great...

[Raptor_Guy]

And our two lowest OBP guys are both candidates for the leadoff position. Great...

Yea this is why I don't buy the notion some managers use that the leadoff guy just has to be your fastest player, what use is it if they can't get on base? Just put a good hitter there.. that being said we don't have many great leadoff choices, even Lawrie doesn't exactly get on base a lot.

[Schad]

I think this is just a function of low team average so far.

That and some stunningly bad BABIP with runners on that won't hold up. Right now, it's at .203 with runners on, the same number with RISP. That won't hold up over the season...mostly, these numbers are just funny, because they are so remarkably skewed.

[William]

And our two lowest OBP guys are both candidates for the leadoff position. Great...

Always a great idea to base opinions of guys solely on games through the first half of the first month of the year and not like on the hundreds of plate appearances they've had in all the years prior to this 13 game sample size.

Izturis had an OBP of .320 last year, a career mark of .337 coming into this year.

Bonifacio had a .330 OBP last year while hindered by injuries, had a .360 mark before that in his last full season.

Who would you rather have in the lead off spots?

[Schad]

And our two lowest OBP guys are both candidates for the leadoff position. Great...

Always a great idea to base opinions of guys solely on games through the first half of the first month of the year and not like on the hundreds of plate appearances they've had in all the years prior to this 13 game sample size.

Izturis had an OBP of .320 last year, a career mark of .337 coming into this year.

Bonifacio had a .330 OBP last year while hindered by injuries, had a .360 mark before that in his last full season.

Who would you rather have in the lead off spots?

Bonifacio's .360 OBP is a huge aberration, though; it came about because he hit .372 on balls in play, which is one of the biggest outliers that you will ever see. He's more likely to end up somewhere in the .300-.320 range, which really isn't ideal for a leadoff guy.

[William]

True, while a OBP .360 likely isn't his true talent level, I still think it's still within reason for us to hope he gets back to that level. He's still a young guy, with only like two full seasons under his belt.

The .372 BABIP is an outlier, sure, but actually not THAT crazy for a speedy guy like Bonifacio. His career mark is around .330, so it isn't actually THAT much of an outlier, at least compared to other players. Or maybe he's Melky Cabrera on PEDs, who knows.

Also a positive trend - his walk rate has increased every year, peaking with 9.2% in that year...and he kept it at 9.1% last year, which to me, shows a real improvement in his batting eye.

This year it's a 2.1%, which I'm sure won't be the case all season.

People gotta remember Bonifacio and Izturis aren't the same guys...Emilio's only like 28, he's still got years of growth ahead of him, he could still get better.

Obviously neither is an ideal leadoff guy, but just in case people forgot...our ideal leadoff guy sprained his ankle and will be out three months.

It's possible you could make a case for Lawrie when he comes back, but to say these two aren't our leadoff candidates, based on 13 games...that is asinine.

[Schad]

Well, there's two things there:

One, a 40 point jump in BABIP is pretty big...if it clocked in at .330, it would take 23 points off of his batting average and OBP.

Two, his .330 career mark is in no small part dictated by that one aberrant season, as it comprises one-third of his career plate appearances.

[William]

All true. But here's his career numbers for BABIP, not counting his first 11 game call-up in 2007.

2008 = .325
2009 = .312
2010 = .333
2011 = .372
2012 = .325

So I don't think it's much of a stretch to think that his normal BABIP might be in the .330 range, considering that four out of his five seasons have been at or above that mark. Even if we completely throw out 2011.

It's not a stretch to believe speedy players like Bonifacio (who also don't hit much home runs that leave the field of play) will have higher than average BABIPs.

Granted, I agree, it probably isn't in the .370 range. But I also don't think it's impossible for him to become a high OBP guy again.

[satyr9]

Well, there's two things there:

One, a 40 point jump in BABIP is pretty big...if it clocked in at .330, it would take 23 points off of his batting average and OBP.

Two, his .330 career mark is in no small part dictated by that one aberrant season, as it comprises one-third of his career plate appearances.

Bolded for truthiness with an asterisk.

I find this to be a mistake people make all the time, but here's why I don't think it applies to Bonerface-you. His '10 and '12 seasons sandwiching outlier '11 were .320 and .330 albeit in small partial season samples. The .360 is going back and correcting for the '09 almost full season of super suck. Still, a .290-.295wOBA or 75-80wRC+ is far more the expectation than the .335/110 he put up in '11. So while his .360 is pulling up his career average and that should be noted, I think it'd be fair to call him a .320-.330 likely potential guy, but that gets harder if you've actually watched him so far this year.

It should point out I was rather bullish on him when we got him, but I really don't like his approach at the plate at all. He's way too hacky and shooty (neither are real words, but believe me that's not a good combo) with his attempts for me. As crazy as this sounds I have more hope he could still learn competent IF defense than that he'll learn how to consistently OBP even mediocre top of the order calibre numbers.

So I've flip-flopped a few times from defending to hating on EB, but I have to assume the player we've seen isn't the player we'll see. I hope something clicks and I see a different guy soon, 'cause I refuse to believe all the reports and things on him were based just on his speed, but so far I have not seen the one people talked about. He's a very fast hot mess right now.

[Harry Palmer]

Pretty good stuff, but am disappointed. I totally thought this was gonna be about a magical land.