Okay, can't fix Jays now, but what moves now for 2014?
Posted: Sat May 11, 2013 5:55 pm
So we're 37 games in, starting guys practically off the minor league DL and others off the scrap heap. The Jays have the third worst record in the majors - the Angels, Dodgers and Phils aren't far behind, money doesn't always buy happiness. It seems as if good managing and good management helps. Of the guys off to historically bad starts by their recent standards, only Melky and Jose seem to be pulling out. Lawrie, Bonifacio, continue to struggle and we're playing scrubs in place of real second basemen and real shortstops. The offence can be summed up as 21st in runs, 26th in on base percentage, and 28th in batting average. In slugging percentage, we're 14th, ever true to the long ball.
In pitching, 29th in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 27th in BAA and 23rd in quality starts.
We do, however, lead the league in pitcher injuries. We have three starters currently pitching under duress or missing starts because of muscle/back complaints. (And one guy who was drilled in the head). Last year, it was elbows. I wondered last season if there was a pattern, a lack in how the team addresses training, stretching, off-season work, therapy, rehab, whatever, that was contributing to such a debilitating number of injuries. There may not be a pattern, other teams have serious injury issues, but I'd really feel reassured if the Jays did a canvass of best practices around the majors and adopted them.
The Jays are 9.5 games out, and frankly have a rough road just to get out of the AL East basement.
So most of us, if not all, believe playoffs are dead. I'm not sure if AA has come around totally to this, it's not yet evident in what he is saying or doing. Most discouraging, AA is stuck with some guys who can't be traded and will be owed big money next season, like Buerhle, Romero - that's $27 million right there. So big FA signings or picking up big money in trades seems out of the question.
On the plus side, as expensive as Reyes is, he can still be a well above player when healthy, and some of the ending contracts we have have some small trade value (Oliver, Bonafacio, Lind, Johnson maybe slightly more) based on teams either needing them for a playoff charge or believing in Bonafacio's case he is hitting so well below his career average that he is a near sure bet to bounce back soon. And the way they are playing now, most of these players, plus 2014 arb-eligible players like Rasmus, Davis, could be traded for whatever and replaced with cheaper players and we'd be no worse off than we are right now, and possibly better. For example, I don't think we need to pay Colby Rasmus $5-6 million to play centre field and set a Jays record for strikeouts (he's well on the way to smashing the old record) when Gose or Pillar might do no worse for rookie money. I mean if a guy has an oWAR of 0.3, the Jays should start taking that literally. At 0.7 WAR and declining, Colby is moving towards the lower end of reserve status.
Among cheaper alternatives, we have the Buffalo four candidates in Negrych, Thole, Gose and Sierra, plus Pillar in NH and likely Stroman, plus later this year, and certainly by next spring, we should have all of our elbow surgeries back - Hutchinson, Perez, Drabek. Not saying all of these players are improvements, but let's say two or three of them might be better fits - and cost a fraction in 2014 salary - of disposable guys on the current 25-man roster.
My question now is what should AA be doing to get things ready for next season.
My initial suggestions, and they are all very sketchy and subject to revision, would be implemented up to the trade deadline, because the trade market isn't going to heat up in May.
1. Shake up the coaching staff, move Mottola back to the minors and try a different hitting approach. Let's see if a change in approach or motivation can shake a couple of these guys out of their statistical lethargy.
2. Right now, start getting rid of outright non-factors for 2014 not signed for next season, like Blanco, Kawasaki, DeRosa and bring in Thole and Negrych as a minimum. Let's see if either of those guys can carry their weight as a key reserve or in Negrych's case, as a starter.
3. For trades prior to the deadline, accept that some guys who are arb eligible this winter aren't worth keeping for the salaries they can command, because if they are going to hit .220 again, their production can be replaced with much lower paid guys. Even if they bounce back somewhere else, the question is whether they can flourish here in the roles given to them or the pressure they feel. So by the trade deadline, I move some of them out.
4. By August, give the fans a glimmer of some fresh or familiar young faces, subject, of course, to decent performances by them in the minors. I'm thinking Stroman, Hutchinson, maybe Nolin, Gose and Pillar. Above all, I'd use the trade deadline to help clear a path for them in 2014, and also to clear out a couple of organizational logjams. For example, the Jays can't really get Jimenez, if he's healthy, all the way to BUF if Thole is there, they can't really get Pillar to BUF as a CF if Gose is there.
In pitching, 29th in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 27th in BAA and 23rd in quality starts.
We do, however, lead the league in pitcher injuries. We have three starters currently pitching under duress or missing starts because of muscle/back complaints. (And one guy who was drilled in the head). Last year, it was elbows. I wondered last season if there was a pattern, a lack in how the team addresses training, stretching, off-season work, therapy, rehab, whatever, that was contributing to such a debilitating number of injuries. There may not be a pattern, other teams have serious injury issues, but I'd really feel reassured if the Jays did a canvass of best practices around the majors and adopted them.
The Jays are 9.5 games out, and frankly have a rough road just to get out of the AL East basement.
So most of us, if not all, believe playoffs are dead. I'm not sure if AA has come around totally to this, it's not yet evident in what he is saying or doing. Most discouraging, AA is stuck with some guys who can't be traded and will be owed big money next season, like Buerhle, Romero - that's $27 million right there. So big FA signings or picking up big money in trades seems out of the question.
On the plus side, as expensive as Reyes is, he can still be a well above player when healthy, and some of the ending contracts we have have some small trade value (Oliver, Bonafacio, Lind, Johnson maybe slightly more) based on teams either needing them for a playoff charge or believing in Bonafacio's case he is hitting so well below his career average that he is a near sure bet to bounce back soon. And the way they are playing now, most of these players, plus 2014 arb-eligible players like Rasmus, Davis, could be traded for whatever and replaced with cheaper players and we'd be no worse off than we are right now, and possibly better. For example, I don't think we need to pay Colby Rasmus $5-6 million to play centre field and set a Jays record for strikeouts (he's well on the way to smashing the old record) when Gose or Pillar might do no worse for rookie money. I mean if a guy has an oWAR of 0.3, the Jays should start taking that literally. At 0.7 WAR and declining, Colby is moving towards the lower end of reserve status.
Among cheaper alternatives, we have the Buffalo four candidates in Negrych, Thole, Gose and Sierra, plus Pillar in NH and likely Stroman, plus later this year, and certainly by next spring, we should have all of our elbow surgeries back - Hutchinson, Perez, Drabek. Not saying all of these players are improvements, but let's say two or three of them might be better fits - and cost a fraction in 2014 salary - of disposable guys on the current 25-man roster.
My question now is what should AA be doing to get things ready for next season.
My initial suggestions, and they are all very sketchy and subject to revision, would be implemented up to the trade deadline, because the trade market isn't going to heat up in May.
1. Shake up the coaching staff, move Mottola back to the minors and try a different hitting approach. Let's see if a change in approach or motivation can shake a couple of these guys out of their statistical lethargy.
2. Right now, start getting rid of outright non-factors for 2014 not signed for next season, like Blanco, Kawasaki, DeRosa and bring in Thole and Negrych as a minimum. Let's see if either of those guys can carry their weight as a key reserve or in Negrych's case, as a starter.
3. For trades prior to the deadline, accept that some guys who are arb eligible this winter aren't worth keeping for the salaries they can command, because if they are going to hit .220 again, their production can be replaced with much lower paid guys. Even if they bounce back somewhere else, the question is whether they can flourish here in the roles given to them or the pressure they feel. So by the trade deadline, I move some of them out.
4. By August, give the fans a glimmer of some fresh or familiar young faces, subject, of course, to decent performances by them in the minors. I'm thinking Stroman, Hutchinson, maybe Nolin, Gose and Pillar. Above all, I'd use the trade deadline to help clear a path for them in 2014, and also to clear out a couple of organizational logjams. For example, the Jays can't really get Jimenez, if he's healthy, all the way to BUF if Thole is there, they can't really get Pillar to BUF as a CF if Gose is there.