Road to 92 wins and the 2nd Wild Card

Kapono · Post #1 » by **Kapono** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 1:48 am

The Jays find themselves 60 games into the season (26-34). Assuming that the Jays will need 92 wins to get the 2nd wild card spot, the Jays need to go 66-36 the rest of the year. That's a 64.7% winning percentage. Which would lead to 105 wins in a full season.

It is unlikely the Jays can do this, but it is still possible.

Going to use this thread to track the road to 92 wins!

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #2 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 2:03 am

Going to need perfect health, Melky not getting suspended, Reyes to come back fairly soon, continued bullpen dominance, Lind continuing to be productive, and some sort of consistency from the starters. If all those things happen, it may just be almost possible. Go team!

Post #3 » by **Schad** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 2:47 am

It's not impossible, but it's extraordinarily improbable. There's also a decent possibility that the threshold will actually end up higher than 92 wins, as well; there are five teams in the East and West on pace for 92 or more, with only four playoff spots available.

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 3:04 am

Could really use one of these streaks to do it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDkKDayk8YQ[/youtube]

satyr9 · Post #5 » by **satyr9** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 3:08 am

Let it go. Jays are easier to watch once you've put hope behind you. I was happy the last 20 years and the first 30 games of this season almost killed me.

sule · Post #6 » by **sule** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 7:55 am

Too many regulars in the lineup under the mendoza line and incapable of going far above that.

Too many starting pitchers probably unable to string together enough wins in a row for it to make a difference this season.

We have a good team, but we're going to have to make some big changes this off-season.

I'm almost resigned to the idea that we won't do much better for the rest of the season, and if we do...it'll be too late.

I just hope our bottom record gives us a good draft pick and we we finally fix the holes in the infield.

akakalakin · Post #7 » by **akakalakin** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 11:47 am

sule wrote:Too many regulars in the lineup under the mendoza line and incapable of going far above that.

Too many starting pitchers probably unable to string together enough wins in a row for it to make a difference this season.

We have a good team, but we're going to have to make some big changes this off-season.

I'm almost resigned to the idea that we won't do much better for the rest of the season, and if we do...it'll be too late.

I just hope our bottom record gives us a good draft pick and we we finally fix the holes in the infield.

Yep big changes to the team needed, at this point Id say no one is untouchable.

Exar Kun · Post #8 » by **Exar Kun** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 12:23 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:It's not impossible, but it's extraordinarily improbable. There's also a decent possibility that the threshold will actually end up higher than 92 wins, as well; there are five teams in the East and West on pace for 92 or more, with only four playoff spots available.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you about needing more than 92 wins. But if we went on this epic run that OP is hoping for, I assume a lot of these teams on pace for 92+ wins will be derailed by us.

s e n s i · Post #9 » by **s e n s i** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 3:31 pm

sule wrote:Too many regulars in the lineup under the mendoza line and incapable of going far above that.

too many?! there isn't a single player on the team under the mendoza line.

I just hope our bottom record gives us a good draft pick and we we finally fix the holes in the infield.

even if we get a top 3 pick in 2014 and pick the best infielder in the draft class, we won't even see that player until 2016 at the absolute earliest. by then the window to compete with the core group of talent we currently have will have likely closed and there will be different holes to fill. plus there really is only one hole in the infield currently, and that's at 2B, though the defense there is more concerning than anything.

Michael Bradley · Post #10 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 5:10 pm

It is too late now. They could have survived a bad April, but it's June now and they are still 8 games under .500. They play in a division where that type of start is not going to cut it. I think finishing the season strong and riding some momentum into 2014 is a more realistic goal, but even then the team needs to fix some holes if they want a chance in hell of competing next season (2B, SP, SP, SP, OBP throughout the lineup, SP, SP, SP, etc).

sule · Post #11 » by **sule** » Sat Jun 8, 2013 9:16 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:It is too late now. They could have survived a bad April, but it's June now and they are still 8 games under .500. They play in a division where that type of start is not going to cut it. I think finishing the season strong and riding some momentum into 2014 is a more realistic goal, but even then the team needs to fix some holes if they want a chance in hell of competing next season (2B, SP, SP, SP, OBP throughout the lineup, SP, SP, SP, etc).

Exactly. There's always too many apologists saying "we just have to get it going...just one streak and we're back into it".

The Jays don't have that luxury. Not in the AL East.

We always get off to a slow start and then people clamour that we're going to turn it up in a couple weeks and that a slow start isn't bad. But then the injury bug hits us and we just end up losing more. Then, when the pressure is off in August/September, we suddenly become a great team.

We need to be like the BoSox and Tampa and Yankees of the world who get off to great starts and then, if they happen to slow down in the dog days, they can afford it without panicking about their position or about falling under .500

We got off to such a bad start that the season ended for us before we even got it going. And now our pitching, having gone from horrid to half-decent, and our batting has gone from horrid to lukewarm, isn't going to do anything for us. We're the 3rd worst team in the American League, and we have too many holes and too many players not performing for us to not make some major changes for next season.

Randle McMurphy · Post #12 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 2:30 am

sule wrote:Exactly. There's always too many apologists saying "we just have to get it going...just one streak and we're back into it".

A 20 game streak will do it for sure.

sule · Post #13 » by **sule** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 2:41 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
sule wrote:Exactly. There's always too many apologists saying "we just have to get it going...just one streak and we're back into it".

A 20 game streak will do it for sure.

20 game win-streak puts us at 47-34 good for .580. If the Yankees and BoSox maintain their current pace over that same period, we'll still be third in the division.

Randle McMurphy · Post #14 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 2:55 am

sule wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:
sule wrote:Exactly. There's always too many apologists saying "we just have to get it going...just one streak and we're back into it".

A 20 game streak will do it for sure.

20 game win-streak puts us at 47-34 good for .580. If the Yankees and BoSox maintain their current pace over that same period, we'll still be third in the division.

13 games over .500 halfway through the season isn't "back into it?" :lol:

They'd only have to go five games over .500 over the last three months to reach 90 wins if that was the case.

sule · Post #15 » by **sule** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 3:00 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
sule wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:A 20 game streak will do it for sure.

20 game win-streak puts us at 47-34 good for .580. If the Yankees and BoSox maintain their current pace over that same period, we'll still be third in the division.

13 games over .500 halfway through the season isn't "back into it?"

They'd only have to go five games over .500 over the last three months to reach 90 wins if that was the case.

We'd still be 3rd in the division, barring the Yanks or BoSox don't keep their pace.

I just don't see it with this team, but i'll eat my words if they can pull that off.

Randle McMurphy · Post #16 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sun Jun 9, 2013 3:26 am

sule wrote:We'd still be 3rd in the division, barring the Yanks or BoSox don't keep their pace.

But very much in the race obviously.

I just don't see it with this team, but i'll eat my words if they can pull that off.

I'm being a bit facetious anyway. A ridiculous win streak of such an extent can't ever be expected/predicted and I very much doubt myself that the Jays will play themselves into any kind of race considering their current hole and lack of effective starting pitching. But I wish some wouldn't talk so definitively about things. Crazy things have happened in this sport over the years. Far crazier than a team winning 65 out of 100 games.

Raps_Swingman · Post #17 » by **Raps_Swingman** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:16 pm

We have the hitting to put together a good second half of the season, but the pitching remains the question mark. If Dickey and Burls can keep up their pace and JJ pitches like he actually wants a fat contract then we may have something to talk about.

Luck, schedule and of course injuries will play a big role. Getting Reyes back should immediately make this lineup and defence much better.

If they can get back to .500 around the All Star break then we can start to talk.

The_Hater · Post #18 » by **The_Hater** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:12 pm

I think the Jays need to hope that 88 wins is the magic # that gets them into the playoffs not 92. That equates to 61-39 which is doable. I'm guessing the pitching can't really get worse.

Penny1993 · Post #19 » by **Penny1993** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:34 pm

Wasn't Oakland like 8 games under .500 last June and somehow made it into the post season?

I could be wrong tho...

Post #20 » by **Schad** » Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:45 pm

Penny1993 wrote:Wasn't Oakland like 8 games under .500 last June and somehow made it into the post season?

I could be wrong tho...

Nine games below on June 10th, actually.

It's certainly possible, but it's quite a rarity. For one thing, they had an excellent pitching staff top-to-bottom, which made it possible for them to string together wins...they had separate streaks where they won 8 in 9 three times, plus moments where they went 16 of 18 and 15 in 17. We don't have the pitching right now to sustain those moments.