The Legend of Esmil...Do We Have Something?

[Raps_Swingman]

So when AA made the trade to get Esmil Rogers last year most of us, including myslef, were a bit peeved to see Yan Gomes go. Rogers had posted mediocre stats in the Show so there wasn't much reason for optimism.

Having watched him pitch his last 3 starts I'm intrigued by his potential. He's the type of athlete that AA seems to be leaning on in drafts and has a power arm. He fits the mold.

Here is an article from when the trade happened: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1395703-why-the-esmil-rogers-trade-was-a-good-move-for-the-blue-jays

His strikeouts-per-nine ratio is 8.1 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.01. These, at least, are decent numbers. Now when you isolate just his numbers since moving to the American League they get even better: 3.06 ERA, 9.2 SO/9, 4.50 SO/BB.

Maybe he didn’t like playing in the hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. Maybe he learned how to keep hitters guessing when he moved to Cleveland. Whatever it was, Rogers has a fastball that can top out at 95.7 MPH. That is wicked speed that can be used in late-game relief situations.

His numbers as a Blue Jay this year:

Year Team League GP GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K WHIP ERA
2013 Toronto AL 26 3 2 2 0 0 0 42.0 41 15 15 3 13 25 1.29 3.21

From a scouting repot: Rogers is a 4 pitch guy, featuring a mid-90s fastball (94+ mph average), a plus curve (81 mph), an average slider (85 mph), and a below-average change-up (86 mph).

What do we think? Am I crazy? Maybe Im just reaching for a feel good stroy from our pitching, which has been bobby brutal. But I think he's definitely got potential.

[tecumseh18]

When you consider the sheer number of pitchers AA drafts, signs and trades for, one of them has to be a pleasant surprise from time to time. Isn't that the way it's supposed to work? Although I wish it would happen more often.

I guess my first question, especially on this Jays team, is how durable is Rogers? He makes the loss of Carlos Villaneuva sting less, but given that he's a hard throwing swing guy I have to wonder if we'll see a similar slackening off of performance as a starter heading into September.

Anyway, interesting to see how Yan Gomes is doing in Cleveland. In 101 PAs, he's got an OPS+ of 128 (JPA, in case you were asking is 73. He's never broken 100 in his career). Gomes has started 25 games as a catcher and has a caught stealing ratio of 53% (JPA 19%. League average is 24%)

[Santoki]

LOL, this sounds like the Raps board. The guy has had a couple of good starts - let's just leave it at that. If he can give us 5-6 innings and keep his ERA under 4.50, then that's exceeding expectations.

[galacticos2]

When he can consistently pitch 5 innings, then we can consider him "something"

[Schad]

When he can consistently pitch 5 innings, then we can consider him "something"

He didn't consistently pitch five innings because he was being stretched out.

As for whether we have anything, it depends on whether his new-found command sticks around, as that's been the primary limiting factor in his career. To be a starter, long-term he also needs to improve either his changeup (which isn't particularly good) or his curve, because it's rather difficult to throw 6+ innings as a fastball/slider guy without at least a fringe-average third pitch.

If he can merely throw the fastball/slider for strikes with some regularity, we might have a back-end reliever, at least.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

by LBJSeizedMyID on Tue May 28, 2013 9:14 am
Esmil Rogers to start tomorrow's game - Was inconsistent as a starter (obviously) during his Rockies days, but always had that "intrigue" label.

That being said, it's been what, two weeks? Have followed him when he was in Colorado, but after the trade to Cleveland, was more an afterthought. Still think he has stuff to be a backend starter, so we'll see.

[Raps_Swingman]

LOL, this sounds like the Raps board. The guy has had a couple of good starts - let's just leave it at that. If he can give us 5-6 innings and keep his ERA under 4.50, then that's exceeding expectations.

Look, don't let the name fool you. When I joined the site there was no real Blue Jays forum. I'm a Leafs/Blue Jays fan with the Raps trailing a far distance in 3rd these days.

I only made the thread because his numbers have been very good in the AL, both as a reliever and now a starter. He has power stuff and like others said needs to develop a 3rd pitch. He has talent and 2 quality starts against the Rangers is no fluke. Look at his advanced stats and you'll see a guy that had some serious bad luck with Colorado in 2011.

Why write off a 27 year old pitcher, who came into the Colorado organization as a SS, already? He's coming into his prime years. It will be interesting to watch if he develops or I'm made to look foolish.

[galacticos2]

When he can consistently pitch 5 innings, then we can consider him "something"

He didn't consistently pitch five innings because he was being stretched out.

As for whether we have anything, it depends on whether his new-found command sticks around, as that's been the primary limiting factor in his career. To be a starter, long-term he also needs to improve either his changeup (which isn't particularly good) or his curve, because it's rather difficult to throw 6+ innings as a fastball/slider guy without at least a fringe-average third pitch.

If he can merely throw the fastball/slider for strikes with some regularity, we might have a back-end reliever, at least.

I think you misconstrued my statement, I am not knocking his past starts. All I am saying is that wait till he can string together starts when he can hit 5 innings and then we can talk about him being the new CV.

[Lateral Quicks]

I think he's even more valuable when you consider he can probably play a better 2B than either Bonifacio or Izturis are at the moment. Maybe he can pitch every fifth day, and start at 2B the other four.

[Santoki]

LOL, this sounds like the Raps board. The guy has had a couple of good starts - let's just leave it at that. If he can give us 5-6 innings and keep his ERA under 4.50, then that's exceeding expectations.

Look, don't let the name fool you. When I joined the site there was no real Blue Jays forum. I'm a Leafs/Blue Jays fan with the Raps trailing a far distance in 3rd these days.

I only made the thread because his numbers have been very good in the AL, both as a reliever and now a starter. He has power stuff and like others said needs to develop a 3rd pitch. He has talent and 2 quality starts against the Rangers is no fluke. Look at his advanced stats and you'll see a guy that had some serious bad luck with Colorado in 2011.

Why write off a 27 year old pitcher, who came into the Colorado organization as a SS, already? He's coming into his prime years. It will be interesting to watch if he develops or I'm made to look foolish.

That's fine, I'm a Raps fan too, this thread just sounds a lot like the one made after a fringe guy has a good game ala Quincy Acy.

He honestly reminds me a lot of Henderson Alvarez. Doesn't strike a lot of guys out even though when he wants to reach back he can touch 95mph. Obviously he needs to live and die with his command if he's going to only throw the fastball/slider. He had a great start and I'm optimistic that he can keep it up, but I doubt very much he's going to be anything more than a 5th guy/long-man at best. But, hey, we need someone exactly like that right now.

[YogiStewart]

surprised Schad hasn't hated his delivery.
seems like an injury waiting to happen

[Schad]

surprised Schad hasn't hated his delivery.
seems like an injury waiting to happen

As, potentially, is the way he breaks off the slider that he throws roughly always. But if he gives us 70-80 good innings in this dreadful year before his arm explodes with the fury of a thousand suns, that's probably a win.

[Michael Bradley]

Rogers didn't have a good minor league track record (granted, a lot of it was in the PCL, but still), and prior to the 2nd half of last season wasn't even a reliable relief option. I'm not expecting much from him, but if he can pitch in Villanueva's role anywhere near as good as Villanueva did, he will bring some value.

[dballislife]

nothing more than a solid 6th fill in starter and long man in pen to me...with dickey, mark, jj, morrow, happ, rogers, wang and ricky...8 guys most with experience and tons of great stuff...hopefully we got more quality starts the rest of the way, with the pen pitching the way they are and the offense looking better and better, playoff chances are legit

[Al_Oliver]

He's earned the right to keep starting until further notice (Morrow returns, etc.). I am liking what I am seeing, but let's not get crazy until he shows prolonged consistency, starting or otherwise...

[Raps_Swingman]

Rogers didn't have a good minor league track record (granted, a lot of it was in the PCL, but still), and prior to the 2nd half of last season wasn't even a reliable relief option. I'm not expecting much from him, but if he can pitch in Villanueva's role anywhere near as good as Villanueva did, he will bring some value.

Agreed. His minor league numbers were very average. But you need to remember this is a guy that has only been pitching for 7 years. He was signed as an infielder by Colorado but his bat sucked. He's approaching the age where he either figures it out or he doesn't and joins the long list of 4A ball players.

For me, when a guy comes to a new league and puts up good numbers his first year we can say: fluke. But if he puts together another, what so far has been, solid year then the sample size increases and we can start to make some more rational judgements on his game.

Hopefully his arm doesn't fall off Schad. Fingers crossed.

[Raps_Swingman]

Esmil continues to impress. 6.2 IP 4 Hits 3 Runs(2 Earned) 1 Walk 5 Ks.

Currently there is no way we can take him out of the rotation. He's pitching well and whether its a mirage or not we need to ride his hot play.

I still mantain this kid has potential and he continues to prove me right.

[TorontoRaptures]

He's really throwing the sinker well. Props to the broadcast team for highlighting his new pitch. Throwing 96 with that sinker to boot makes him dangerous. Obviously he will need to prove consistency but for now he's providing us with exactly what we need.

[soulchild_07]

94-96 with the 4 seamer, sinker from 91-93, good slider and hard curve, he is what Kyle Drabek was supposed to be. haha Again small sample but early returns are good and look potentially sustainable.

[Schad]

He's really throwing the sinker well. Props to the broadcast team for highlighting his new pitch. Throwing 96 with that sinker to boot makes him dangerous. Obviously he will need to prove consistency but for now he's providing us with exactly what we need.

Yeah, the sinker takes a lot of pressure off his four-seamer, which is relatively straight; having a pitch with the same arm action, a variance of a couple MPH, and considerably more movement could be enough to make him a starter, if he keeps hitting the target as he has been.