Build the 2014 Starting Rotation

[Lateral Quicks]

So, now that the 2013 season is pretty much over, let's discuss how to fix this year's biggest mess, that being the starting rotation. Currently the team is spending a large amount of money on guys that are injured and/or underperforming. Off the top of my head:

Dickey ($15M): performing like a 4th starter.
Buerhle ($19M): performing like a 4th starter at best.
Morrow ($10M): injured
Romero ($10M): in purgatory
Happ ($6M): injured, generally a 5th starter type

Other (dramatically less expensive) in house candidates for next year:

Rogers
Hutchison
Stroman
Nolin
Drabek
Jenkins

Other candidates that could be stretched out
McGowan
Cecil

To get better, we will need some combination of guys living up to their capabilities, and a new addition or two providing a boost.

Here's what I would do:

- try to give $20M to a team - probably in the NL - to rid myself of Buerhle. This team can't win with a meatballer like him getting routinely shelled by the AL East.
- trade Happ for anything. His contract isn't that bad, but I'm not a fan of spending a lot of money on a 5th starter type. I think the #5 hole should typically be for your pitching prospects.
- Use the money freed from the Happ and Buerhle moves (~$15M) to get a reliable #2-#3-calibre starter.
- I've been impressed by Rogers, to the point I'd give him a spot next year.
- Let Hutchison (who I'm high on), Stroman, and Nolin fight it out for the 5th spot.

So I'd have:
Dickey
Acquisition
Morrow
Rogers
Hutchison/Stroman/Nolin

In reserve: Romero/Hutchison/Stroman/Nolin/Drabek/Jenkins/veteran AAAA types

[Santoki]

So, now that the 2013 season is pretty much over, let's discuss how to fix this year's biggest mess, that being the starting rotation. Currently the team is spending a large amount of money on guys that are injured and/or underperforming. Off the top of my head:

Dickey ($15M): performing like a 4th starter.
Buerhle ($19M): performing like a 4th starter at best.
Morrow ($10M): injured
Romero ($10M): in purgatory
Happ ($6M): injured, generally a 5th starter type

Other (dramatically less expensive) in house candidates for next year:

Rogers
Hutchison
Stroman
Nolin
Drabek
Jenkins

Other candidates that could be stretched out
McGowan
Cecil

To get better, we will need some combination of guys living up to their capabilities, and a new addition or two providing a boost.

Here's what I would do:

- try to give $20M to a team - probably in the NL - to rid myself of Buerhle. This team can't win with a meatballer like him getting routinely shelled by the AL East.
- trade Happ for anything. His contract isn't that bad, but I'm not a fan of spending a lot of money on a 5th starter type. I think the #5 hole should typically be for your pitching prospects.
- Use the money freed from the Happ and Buerhle moves (~$15M) to get a reliable #2-#3-calibre starter.
- I've been impressed by Rogers, to the point I'd give him a spot next year.
- Let Hutchison (who I'm high on), Stroman, and Nolin fight it out for the 5th spot.

So I'd have:
Dickey
Acquisition
Morrow
Rogers
Hutchison/Stroman/Nolin

In reserve: Romero/Hutchison/Stroman/Nolin/Drabek/Jenkins/veteran AAAA types

No fault of your own, but that's an ugly rotation. When Morrow eventually goes down, you're throwing out Dickey and a bunch of kids. So, basically you're back to the Halladay days except that Doc was a legit ace and perhaps the best in the league.

If we're going the internal option route, you're basically hoping to luck out and overperfom expectations. If we are still chasing that 2-3 year window of playoff hope then you need at least 2 more acquisitions and have Rogers as your 5th starter, with a AAA kid ready to come up when Morrow gets injured again. Cecil and McGowan look like locks for next year's bullpen since it's the only modicum of success they've had in years (why mess with that especially when it looks like we'll be trading away key relievers?).

Basically, AA needs to have another big offseason, but this time the pitching has to pan out. I have no idea how or if he can make that happen in order for this team to contend. It may be too much of a task.

[Michael Bradley]

Depending on what Johnson decides to do this winter (either accept arbitration and try to have a 200 IP season in 2014 with the Jays or test free agency coming off a down season), I think the rotation will probably end up being the same. Buehrle will be tough to move unless the Jays attach him to more attractive players. It is pointless to trade Dickey after what they gave up to get him. That leaves Morrow, Romero, Happ, and Rogers who are under contract and/or arbitration eligible (Rogers). If Johnson ends up coming back, then you slide someone into a depth or swing man role (either Rogers or Happ).

Since Johnson only has 60 IP heading into the AS break, I'm going to assume he will be talked out of testing free agency, unless he really wants out of Toronto or feels a club will still pay him based on reputation. So I'm going to guess next year's rotation is exactly the same as the one heading into 2013, except the #5 spot being up in the air (Rogers, Happ, or Romero).

[akakalakin]

Depending on what Johnson decides to do this winter (either accept arbitration and try to have a 200 IP season in 2014 with the Jays or test free agency coming off a down season), I think the rotation will probably end up being the same. Buehrle will be tough to move unless the Jays attach him to more attractive players. It is pointless to trade Dickey after what they gave up to get him. That leaves Morrow, Romero, Happ, and Rogers who are under contract and/or arbitration eligible (Rogers). If Johnson ends up coming back, then you slide someone into a depth or swing man role (either Rogers or Happ).

Since Johnson only has 60 IP heading into the AS break, I'm going to assume he will be talked out of testing free agency, unless he really wants out of Toronto or feels a club will still pay him based on reputation. So I'm going to guess next year's rotation is exactly the same as the one heading into 2013, except the #5 spot being up in the air (Rogers, Happ, or Romero).

nothing like writing off next season as well!

[dballislife]

our pen is so deep, give cecil another shot

[dagger]

our pen is so deep, give cecil another shot

I wouldn't.

Let's watch the rehab guys, look to stretch out McGowan (gradually), let's see what trading relief depth might get us, let's keep an eye on Romero (who is pitching today). Also, are there cheaper options for other positions that would free up some money for a possible free agent acquisition. Pillar instead of Davis, maybe move Janssen in a trade and promote Carreno or Stilson. I assume Lind is going to gradually turn back into a pumpkin, too.

[Michael Bradley]

Depending on what Johnson decides to do this winter (either accept arbitration and try to have a 200 IP season in 2014 with the Jays or test free agency coming off a down season), I think the rotation will probably end up being the same. Buehrle will be tough to move unless the Jays attach him to more attractive players. It is pointless to trade Dickey after what they gave up to get him. That leaves Morrow, Romero, Happ, and Rogers who are under contract and/or arbitration eligible (Rogers). If Johnson ends up coming back, then you slide someone into a depth or swing man role (either Rogers or Happ).

Since Johnson only has 60 IP heading into the AS break, I'm going to assume he will be talked out of testing free agency, unless he really wants out of Toronto or feels a club will still pay him based on reputation. So I'm going to guess next year's rotation is exactly the same as the one heading into 2013, except the #5 spot being up in the air (Rogers, Happ, or Romero).

nothing like writing off next season as well!

They really don't have much of a choice, barring some creative trades. I mean, there is some upside in bringing back Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, Buehrle, etc, and hoping for better results next year (Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow have all been below their talent level and/or hurt this season), but again, it is a matter of not having many other options. Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Romero, and Happ alone are going to make over $50M next season. Johnson, if he accepts arbitration, is looking at a one year, ~$13M salary. Good luck trying to move any of those deals for upgrades. The Jays are better off keeping them and hoping for better results next season.

If the Jays can get creative, maybe they can give Philly more prospects for Cliff Lee, but convince them to take Buehrle's deal to offset the salary. Not sure Philly has any incentive to do that, unless the Jays decide to take Ryan Howard or something outrageous like that, but the Jays should be looking at #1 starter options, not #4 starter options. The window period for this team is not long, they have to take advantage of it.

[mikero]

I expect JJ to be gone next year (either traded or during FA). With his contract, it's doubtful Buehrle is moved. There's no point in selling low on Morrow or Dickey. If he looks healthy, maybe the Jays decide to take a gamble and sign Halladay.

Dickey
Halladay
Morrow
Buehrle
Happ
Rogers/Hutchison/Stroman/Nolin/Romero

[Lateral Quicks]

I think what this year has demonstrated is that going with veterans doesn't guarantee success, nor does sprinkling in some kids preclude success. Tampa has success every year despite constantly adding rookies to their staff.

I would argue that a guy like Hutchison can probably perform equal to or better than Buerhle at 1/30th the price; the only difference is that Hutch will likely have an innings limit. If the team is going to spend on pitching, I want them to spend on top flight talent, not on back of the rotation spots that can be filled just as well by ready prospects.

[Ado05]

I'd love to get rid of Buerhle and keep JJ, but I doubt that happens. Offer JJ a qualifying offer, get a first rounder and let him walk to the NL and watch him re-build his value.

This is pretty much what I expect:
Dickey
Morrow
Buerhle
Hutchison
Happ
Rogers/Stroman/Romero/Nolin/scrubs like Wang and Redmond.

[flatjacket1]

My 2014 rotation:
1. Morrow
2. Dickey
3. Happ
4. Acquisition
5. Buehrle

I feel it's very unlikely we can get a #1 or #2 starter in FA/trade, but that would be preferable.

[Lateral Quicks]

My 2014 rotation:
1. Morrow
2. Dickey
3. Happ
4. Acquisition
5. Buehrle

I feel it's very unlikely we can get a #1 or #2 starter in FA/trade, but that would be preferable.

Speaking as a Morrow fan, I think it's unrealistic to pencil him in as the staff ace for next year. He's shown signs, but when he's not injured he's proven inconsistent.

I'd say if the only acquisition you can get is a #4 type, then spend the money elsewhere. At least one of Rogers/Hutchison/Stroman can do just as good a job for a small fraction of the price.

[Dan2087]

1. Johnson (no other choice really IMO)
2. Dickey
3. Morrow
4. Happ
5. Buehrle

Rogers the long guy in the pen playing the Villanueva role. I keep Cecil and McGowan in the pen. No point in changing what's working, especially at this stage. Drabek and Hutchison at AAA to cover for the inevitable injuries after week two. Nolin remains in the minors all year hopefully. Stroman maybe as the 9th starter

[flatjacket1]

My 2014 rotation:
1. Morrow
2. Dickey
3. Happ
4. Acquisition
5. Buehrle

I feel it's very unlikely we can get a #1 or #2 starter in FA/trade, but that would be preferable.

Speaking as a Morrow fan, I think it's unrealistic to pencil him in as the staff ace for next year. He's shown signs, but when he's not injured he's proven inconsistent.

I'd say if the only acquisition you can get is a #4 type, then spend the money elsewhere. At least one of Rogers/Hutchison/Stroman can do just as good a job for a small fraction of the price.

I never said he was an ace, I just said he is our best pitcher at the moment. Sure he's having a down year, but you don't rule out the two prior seasons where he has been good/elite. Dickey is old enough where he is expected to decline, and when a knuckleballer declines, it means a percentage of pitches that were knuckleballs become this floating cookie's for hitters. When a knuckball doesn't break it's a batting practice pitch. That is why he gives up runs in bunches.

I think Morrow or Happ are our best options, but Morrow is most likely to open the season as our ace, minus a breakout/Garza acquisition.

I would not rule out having Hutch/Stroman/Rogers as a #4 but I would rather start the season with a veteran, and have those guys earn spots during the season, when we inevitably have injuries.

[Santoki]

My 2014 rotation:
1. Morrow
2. Dickey
3. Happ
4. Acquisition
5. Buehrle

I feel it's very unlikely we can get a #1 or #2 starter in FA/trade, but that would be preferable.

Speaking as a Morrow fan, I think it's unrealistic to pencil him in as the staff ace for next year. He's shown signs, but when he's not injured he's proven inconsistent.

I'd say if the only acquisition you can get is a #4 type, then spend the money elsewhere. At least one of Rogers/Hutchison/Stroman can do just as good a job for a small fraction of the price.

I never said he was an ace, I just said he is our best pitcher at the moment. Sure he's having a down year, but you don't rule out the two prior seasons where he has been good/elite. Dickey is old enough where he is expected to decline, and when a knuckleballer declines, it means a percentage of pitches that were knuckleballs become this floating cookie's for hitters. When a knuckball doesn't break it's a batting practice pitch. That is why he gives up runs in bunches.

I think Morrow or Happ are our best options, but Morrow is most likely to open the season as our ace, minus a breakout/Garza acquisition.

I would not rule out having Hutch/Stroman/Rogers as a #4 but I would rather start the season with a veteran, and have those guys earn spots during the season, when we inevitably have injuries.

If Morrow is our ace going into next season, then we might as well resign ourselves to another last place finish right now. This rotation needs an incredible makeover, one even greater than this past offseason. It's not likely though and I expect it to look much like yours.

[flatjacket1]

If Morrow is our ace going into next season, then we might as well resign ourselves to another last place finish right now. This rotation needs an incredible makeover, one even greater than this past offseason. It's not likely though and I expect it to look much like yours.

Well this year we had the reigning Cy Young in the NL, a former ERA champion and one of the most consistent pitchers in the league in Buehrle, and our rotation is 2nd last in ERA (5.07). Last year we were 6th last. (4.82).

Also, Morrow had an ERA of under 3 last season. This year he is off to a slow start (only registered 10 starts and has allowed 3 ER or less in the majority of them.

I think it's unlikely we add more than a Cy Young and a former ERA champion as well as the most consistent pitcher in the league this offseason, I think we just need 1 front of the rotation starter to be contenders, especially with the strength of the bullpen and the amount of bad luck and variance our starters have experienced thus far. Also with better defense they will inevitably allow fewer ER's.

Overall I don't think we are that screwed. We are for this year, but for next year we should end up with something similar. Considering our offense isn't all that potent so far this year, and our defense has been terrible with the only bright spot being our bullpen, we are doing okay in terms of W-L record.

[akakalakin]

Price
Dickey
Buerhle
Morrow
Happ

[Wo1verine]

Can't depend on Dickey (with the year he just had) and Morrow ( can't stay healthy recently) as your #1 and #2 starters.

[Yosemite Dan]

The concept of Morrow being your ace or even pencilled as one of your top 3 starters is a recipe for disaster. At this point the team should be happy just to get 20 starts before he breaks down again. I've never seen a pitcher go down with so many unrelated ailments so often without having a major injury. The guy is made out of paper mache and to think that will change anytime soon is foolish. Anytime I see him pitch I hold my breath and if he gets thru a game where he gets shelled then I fully expect to hear afterwards that he had some tightness here or some soreness there and may miss his next start which ends up him goung on the DL.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

The most likely scenario is to take the Red Sox route and get a solid innings eater and hope for bounce back seasons from the rest. They have too much money tied up in the current starters and not enough trade chips to make serious acquisitions.

Picking up top notch defenders at second and left is a far more efficient and likely way to improve our pitching.