Colby's Season to Date: Mirage or Mainstay?

[Raps_Swingman]

Was thinking about the season Colby has had so far and I'm really impressed with how he's progressed. I was going to go do some research and point out the numbers but the guys at Jays Journal did it for me, so I'll take a backseat to them.

Despite early criticism that centered mostly around a historically poor strikeout rate, Rasmus has responded admirably and led the Blue Jays in the first half of 2013 with a 3.5 fWAR.

Despite seeing an identical fastball rate this year at 57.6% compared to the second half last year, and well down from the rate he saw the first half of 2012 (62.9%), he’s produced at an even higher level recognized by his .263/.332/.484 triple slash, .354 wOBA and 122 wRC+ in 2013.

http://jaysjournal.com/2013/07/18/will-colby-rasmus-keep-cruising-after-all-star-break-for-toronto-bluejays-mlb-jays-predictions-news-blogs-opinions-tale-of-two-seasons-2012-2013/

Has Colby turned a corner? Or are we in for another 2012 second half disaster?

I think Colby has finally found his niche and he's of great value to this team. Hopefully he continues to progress as a young CF.

[Graham's Cracker]

I think Mottola's helped him out a great deal. He's not messing around with his hitting mechanics every other week.

[Gibby]

His defense is something else to.

[Schad]

His BABIP will likely fade a bit, and thus his post-ASG numbers may be weaker than what we've seen to date. That said, they can be weaker by a fairly significant margin and he'd still be a damned good player...if he finishes out the year around 5 WAR, that's a hell of a season.

[MikeM]

I think he's almost in the top 20 in baseball for WAR.

In terms of our core players, I think he's one of them. Jose, Edwin, Reyes, Colby. Need 5 other hitters and an entire rotation and we're set!

[Indiana Jones]

and soon he'll want to get paid for it...big time

[Schad]

and soon he'll want to get paid for it...big time

He's probably a good candidate for a Bautista/Encarnacion-style underpaid-but-well-paid extension this off-season. Both of them signed for what have been (to date) ridiculously cheap deals relative their production, because they didn't have a terribly long track record of elite production.

Rasmus will hit free agency after next year, but there's a good chance that he'd be willing to lock in at something around $8-9m/year over 3-4 years, with a couple big-money options at the back end...a steep discount for a guy heading for 5+ WAR, but one that he and his people might find palatable given his inconsistency.

[Avenger]

So far in his career his production in the second half of the season tends to drop of precipitously, it could just be noise and not a signal but the trend is just so overwhelmingly.

Its just so weird, i've never heard of anything like it, every player will have years where he's better in the first half than the second and vice versa but for that to happen in 4 straight full seasons has gotta be unprecedented.

[Schad]

So far in his career his production in the second half of the season tends to drop of precipitously, it could just be noise and not a signal but the trend is just so overwhelmingly. Its so weird, i've never heard of anything like it, every player will have years where he's better in the first half than the second and vice versa but for that to happen in 4 straight full seasons has gotta be unprecedented.

Yeah, it's definitely odd. There are plenty of slow-start guys out there who don't hit their rhythm until May, but it's pretty rare for a player to be consistently great in April-June and then fall off the table in July-Oct. Can't even blame it on the heat, he's from frickin' Alabama.

On the bright side, he's having a great month of July thus far...

[spykelee]

I think Colby would definetely be interested in reupping with us. He likes Toronto. Likes being under the radar and out of the spotlight. He also seems to get along really well with the JPA's and Lawrie's and Lind's of the world, and I know he has spoken glowingly about Mottola as well. He just strikes me as a guy where his comfort is equal to the dollars... As long as we offer a fair contract, I'm confident he'd re up here.

[Raps_Swingman]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Colby is now 18th in all of baseball in WAR (4th among CF).

In a season of such utter crap, the play/emergence of Colby Rasmus has been great to watch.

Amazing to think we have 3 players in the top 30, goes to show how dusty our pitching has been.

[J-Roc]

I haven't watched much Jays this year. But is Colby at a stage where you want him up to bat in a crucial situation? Is he that good? And not just compared to some of our struggling players, but compared to Jose and Edwin?

Sent using the RealGM mobile app.

[Schad]

I haven't watched much Jays this year. But is Colby at a stage where you want him up to bat in a crucial situation? Is he that good? And not just compared to some of our struggling players, but compared to Jose and Edwin?

Sent using the RealGM mobile app.

Large part of his value is defensive; he's not as reliable a bat as the other two, partially because of his strikeouts (and there's a reckoning coming with his BABIP) and partially because he still has significant platoon splits, though not as significant as they've been in the past. But he's hitting well, certainly well enough to feel confident when he steps to the plate against all but top-tier lefties.

[Raps_Swingman]

I haven't watched much Jays this year. But is Colby at a stage where you want him up to bat in a crucial situation? Is he that good? And not just compared to some of our struggling players, but compared to Jose and Edwin?

Sent using the RealGM mobile app.

Large part of his value is defensive; he's not as reliable a bat as the other two, partially because of his strikeouts (and there's a reckoning coming with his BABIP) and partially because he still has significant platoon splits, though not as significant as they've been in the past. But he's hitting well, certainly well enough to feel confident when he steps to the plate against all but top-tier lefties.

I'd say that is a pretty accurate statement. I don't think he'll ever be great off elite leftys partially because he stands so damn far up in the box. Behind Edwin and Jose though I like him up there with runners on.

He is hitting .354 with RISP and a 1.023 slugging. I'm sure his BABIP will settle though, currently at .370 it will probably be in the .300 range which is his career average.

[Michael Bradley]

Honestly, if the Jays had a good CF option in the minors, I'd be tempted to sell high on Rasmus.

As it is, Gose is no where near ready, and Rasmus is by far the best option at CF the Jays have, now and probably for a few years (barring a complete turnaround from Gose).

[flatjacket1]

Rasmus will hit free agency after next year, but there's a good chance that he'd be willing to lock in at something around $8-9m/year over 3-4 years, with a couple big-money options at the back end...a steep discount for a guy heading for 5+ WAR, but one that he and his people might find palatable given his inconsistency.

I'm sorry, but 8-9M a year is likely what he'd receive this coming year in arbitration, having a terrible history.

Typically when a player can receive significantly more money by attending arbitration on a yearly basis, they won't sign for that.

Adam Jones contract is a good measuring stick. Colby has enough success in 2012 and 2013 where if this continues, he will get rewarded handsomely.

[Schad]

Typically when a player can receive significantly more money by attending arbitration on a yearly basis, they won't sign for that.

This is his final arb year coming up. He's a free agent after 2014.

And no, I'm not convinced that he/his agent would rather take an arb settlement this year and hit free agency thereafter, rather than taking something like $36m over four. Rasmus has been inconsistent enough that -- as with late-bloomers like Bautista and Encarnacion -- the safe bet is getting a pile of guaranteed money, rather than risking another season like 2011 or 2012, which would result in him getting very little on the open market.

[Mak]

I have not looked at WAR stats this year until today really and was surprised to see that Colby was 16th, and 2nd on the team.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... atting::15

Perfect time to trade him for a pitcher? Though he only has one year left, maybe somehow they can sign and trade him. Who has more value in a trade Colby or Anthony Gose ?

[Randle McMurphy]

Don't think trading one of the team's best players for a pitcher is any kind of a solution, no. They have nobody to replace Rasmus with.

[Raps_Swingman]

Don't think trading one of the team's best players for a pitcher is any kind of a solution, no. They have nobody to replace Rasmus with.

I'd trade Joey Bats before I traded Colby at this point(based on age, injuries etc). But neither will happen.

We have nothing even close to being a replacement for either, so we'll have to move someone else or use free agency.