Impact of Defense on W/L

[Sifu]

Sorry if this topic was discussed elsewhere and I'm rehashing things...

In looking at the Jays defense, we know they've been bad, but crunching the numbers, they rank in the top 5 in MLB in errors committed and rank second for the most unearned runs given up.

If I was a little more tech savvy and can show a graph, I could insert one that plots team winning pct vs. unearned runs, and we would be able to see a very good correlation of losing vs. unearned runs. The teams who have given up the most unearned runs are a who's who of the bottom dwellers like Milwaukee, NY Mets, Houston, Toronto and Chisox. The teams with the least amount of unearned runs include Baltimore, Tampa, NYY, StL, Detroit and Atlanta.

Jays have given up 56 unearned runs. League Average is 38. Using Bill James Pythag theory, reducing runs allows to league average would net the Jays only an extra 2 wins. But if we were to have elite defense like Baltimore or Tampa, our projected w/l would be playing 0.500 ball.

That's still crap in the AL East, but it sure is a heck of a lot better than where the Jays are now.

[Schad]

Errors and unearned runs are a small part of the defensive story; it's our lack of range at a couple key positions that really kills us, and that ends up getting attributed to the pitchers.

Now, our starting pitching would be awful no matter what, but it certainly doesn't help that balls get through the middle infield with the greatest of ease. I urge everyone to spare themselves the trauma of looking up the UZR/150 of Reyes and Izturis this year. Just don't do it. The pain...knowing isn't worth it.