RealGM

I thought it would be a fun exercise to compare AA's inherited major league team, the 2009 Jays, to the current version. The sole purpose of this is to see which team was in better shape strictly based on major league talent as it was perceived at the time. The point is not to say that 2009 Lind was about to suck so you don't want him, but rather to acknowledge that he had great value at the time. I anticipate that AA's should be in much better shape now, but we'll see.

I'm judging based on the answer to the question: "If you had to pick one, would you take the 2009 player or the 2013 player right now?"

C: Barajas/JPA - I'll let you guess which one put up .226/.258/.403 and which put up .211/.248/.392. Somehow, value goes to Arencibia who at least does it at a fifth of the price (500K to Rod's 2.5 million)
Winner: 2013

1B: Overbay/EE - Overbay hit a sneaky good .265 with 16 HR and a .838 OPS in 2009. EE is a beast in his prime and on a great contract.
Winner: 2013

DH: Lind/Lind - 2009 Lind hit .305 with 35 HR and a .932 OPS.
Winner: 2009

2B: Hill/crap - 2009 Hill hit .286 with 36 HR and .829 OPS with great D.
Winner: 2009

SS: Scutaro/Reyes - Scutaro had nice value for earning just 1.1 million that season, but Reyes provides more impact for longer.
Winner: 2013

3B: EE (09) / Lawrie - Rolen got traded (by JP) midway through the season for top prospect Zach Stewart and scrub Edwin Encarnacion. On perceived value at the time, Lawrie wins in a landslide.
Winner: 2013

OF: Bautista/Bautista - So is it better to have 2009 unproven and unsigned Bautista with the magical September or today's declining version? I thought this answer was easy, but actually I'm having trouble. The answer is obvious if you know about 2010, but without knowing its tougher. Sure it seems better to have the younger Bautista but would you not trade that "scrubby" post-2009 version of Bautista for a veteran on a good deal like this year's version? I can't decide.
Winner: draw

OF: Wells/Ramsus - AA's most remarkable achievement.
Winner: 2013

OF: Snider/Melky - Rios inhabited an OF spot before he got claimed on waivers, so AA inherited Snider. I love Travis Snider and hate Melky but they both sucked. Anyway, only one of them was earning 8 million.
Winner: 2009

SP1: Halladay/Dickey -
Winner: 2009

SP2: Romero/Romero or Happ - Romero was a rookie in 2009, was awesome, and had plenty of value.
Winner: 2009

SP3: Tallet/Buehrle - So apparently Brian Tallet had a 5.32 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP.
Winner: 2013

SP4: Richmond/Johnson - So apparently Scott Richmond had a 5.52 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP.
Winner: draw

SP5: Cecil,Rzep/Morrow - So apparently Brett Cecil had a 5.30 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP.
Winner: 2013

Closer: Frasor/Janssen - Frasor was the closer?
Winner: 2013

Top 4 Other Bullpen IP: Downs, League, Carlson, Camp / Loup, Cecil, Delabar, Oliver
Winner: 2013

----------------------------

Hopefully I didn't forget anyone important. So I have it as 9 wins for 2013, 5 wins for 2009, 2 draws. Also, giving just 1 win for the non-closer component of the bullpen probably underestimates 2013 a bit.

Obviously this is an imperfect and mostly stupid way of looking at things but I had fun writing it. Hopefully it shows that even in this horrible season we're not as far off as we once were.

I've certainly gained a greater appreciation over the last few terrible seasons about how good the 2006-2008 JP teams were. They may not have been the absolute best in the majors (which they needed to be), but they were certainly among the top 8 and would have been good enough to make the playoffs in any other division. As for 2009, Ricciardi's Jays weren't really his team by the time that waste of a season finished up. He was essentially forced to blow up the team by ownership to save money and that led to trading/waiving guys like Rolen and Rios. Such moves led to an immediate dropoff in talent (although it also gave future superstar Bautista playing time and got the team future All-Star Encarnacion almost by accident so it wasn't all bad).

I think the answer to your question (of whether the team AA inherited in 2009 is better than the current version) comes down to whether you count Halladay as a player he inherited. Doc was the best pitcher in the majors at that point in time. And while AA did technically inherit him on the roster, for all intents and purposes he didn't. The Jays wanted to save money/rebuild and that meant Halladay could no longer remain with the organization. AA was hired with the knowledge that moving Doc would be his first major task. Considering that, I think it would be wrong to hold Halladay against him in this kind of analysis. There was never any scenario in which Halladay was going to remain with the team as long as a rebuild was in the cards.

If you don't include Doc here, 2013 takes the clear edge. The rotation (bad for both) and bullpen (good for both) is pretty even between these groups, but the Jays' 2013 position player core (Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus, Reyes, Lawrie) surpasses the core of Hill, Lind, Overbay, Bautista, and Vernon Wells' shell (Scutaro was a FA and not likely to be re-signed).

On paper, the 2013 team is clearly better. But, we've played out this whole season on paper since November and there's a good chance the team won't even finish with a better record than last year's team. This team hasn't gotten any better since 2009 and there's no guarantee they'll ever be any better than the 06-08 teams. It's time for another rebuild before it's too late.

Too late for a rebuild? That's almost impossible unless the Jays start signing guys like Pujols to 10 year deals, which they don't seem to have the appetite for. They opened up a short term window around Bautista and Encarnacion and the starting pitching has killed the season. It will never actually be too late to rebuild again. It will just suck.

To be fair to Ricciardi, the 2009 team was sabotaged by Paul Beeston before the season even started. Ricciardi was not allowed to sign anyone to a MLB contract (every player they signed that off-season was on a minor league deal) and their subsequent salary dumps were mandated by Beeston/ownership. In hindsight, that did have some benefit, as dumping Rios lead to Bautista getting full-time playing time (in addition to getting rid of Rios' contract) and trading Rolen lead to Encarnacion being in the organization (although he was waived by AA before being brought back), but at the time it was terrible value for both players.

AA inherited a very bad situation. He inherited a team with a bottom five farm system and had to trade away the team's best pitcher upon arrival. It was astonishing that AA was able to turn Johermyn Chavez, Tyler Pastornicky, Tim Collins, Marc Rzep(fill in the rest), Zach Stewart, etc, into high upside MLB talent (Morrow, Escobar, Rasmus) because the asset base he inherited was very bare.

On the flip side, if AA were to leave today, and a new GM was needed to come in and fix this team, it would be WAY easier to do so. The Jays could trade Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, etc, and get value given that they are still elite and have many years remaining on their deals. The farm system is not very good right now, at least in the upper minors, but there is a lot of talent in the lower minors that could breakout within a few years. It is a remarkably more attractive situation, even in the face of another sub-80 win season.

Say what you want about where the Jays are now, and there is no denying they are in pretty bad shape at the moment, but AA inherited a mess.

Fairview4Life wrote:Too late for a rebuild? That's almost impossible unless the Jays start signing guys like Pujols to 10 year deals, which they don't seem to have the appetite for. They opened up a short term window around Bautista and Encarnacion and the starting pitching has killed the season. It will never actually be too late to rebuild again. It will just suck.

I should clarify - an accelerated rebuild (that felt dirty to say thanks to Colangelo) accomplished by extracting as much value out of guys like Reyes, Bautista, and Encarnacion. If you want to keep this core together for the next 2-3 years then prepare to have one of the legitimately worst teams in baseball from 2016 and on. I know we won't sell though because that would mean AA is out of a job much like Ricciardi was after his failed attempt at spending. It's just overwhelming how many gaps there are on this roster and I have no faith in the core that we actually have. We also have no legitimate starting pitchers. Mark Buehrle is our best pitcher...seriously, let that sink in.

I don't understand the point of this comparison. Shouldn't it be the 2006 Jays vs the 2013 Jays, as those teams were built on a major bump in the payroll?

Hoopstarr wrote:I don't understand the point of this comparison. Shouldn't it be the 2006 Jays vs the 2013 Jays, as those teams were built on a major bump in the payroll?

I agree. Then you can compare the 2006 offseason changes to the ones that AA is going to make for 2014. The 2009 and 2015 teams would be a better comparison, or whenever this "window" ends.

Santoki wrote:

Fairview4Life wrote:Too late for a rebuild? That's almost impossible unless the Jays start signing guys like Pujols to 10 year deals, which they don't seem to have the appetite for. They opened up a short term window around Bautista and Encarnacion and the starting pitching has killed the season. It will never actually be too late to rebuild again. It will just suck.

I should clarify - an accelerated rebuild (that felt dirty to say thanks to Colangelo) accomplished by extracting as much value out of guys like Reyes, Bautista, and Encarnacion. If you want to keep this core together for the next 2-3 years then prepare to have one of the legitimately worst teams in baseball from 2016 and on. I know we won't sell though because that would mean AA is out of a job much like Ricciardi was after his failed attempt at spending. It's just overwhelming how many gaps there are on this roster and I have no faith in the core that we actually have. We also have no legitimate starting pitchers. Mark Buehrle is our best pitcher...seriously, let that sink in.

It is too early to project what the post-window period team will look like. I tend to agree that rebuilding will probably be mandatory as there does not appear to be any elite minor league talent coming up through the system over the next 2-3 years, and only Lawrie has the potential to be a long-term elite player currently on the roster (assuming his bat catches up to his glove as he has shown since coming back from the DL this season), but a lot can change in 2-3 years. Some of the players in low-A will suddenly be in Double-A and AAA in their early-20's, and who knows how they will project, especially the Latin players. AA drafted a lot of high upside high school talent, and while a lot of those players will bust, some will pan out. We also don't know what type of asset flipping will go on during the next few years (i.e. some of the prospects might be traded for established MLB talent, thereby extending or creating a new window).

I think AA made the right move trying to win with Bautista and Encarnacion. The chances of the Jays developing or acquiring two players of that calibre was very small. Unfortunately it did not work out this year, and maybe won't work out at all, but I think it was a move that had to be made. Rebuilding is easy. Winning isn't.

JPA is putting up replacement level numbers. Barajas at least wan't a tool defensively, and actually put up positive WAR. They're a wash at best.

I take 2009 Barajas over 2013 JPK any day of the week.

Santoki wrote:If you want to keep this core together for the next 2-3 years then prepare to have one of the legitimately worst teams in baseball from 2016 and on.

The original announced plan (circa 2011) was not to plunge through an open window, but to attain a level of competitiveness and have wave after wave of prospects take over to keep the wins coming in subsequent seasons. I've been given to believe that Rogers has a long term strategy here. Sending out TDA, Syndergaard, Nicolino et al. for "win now" (*chortle*) players obviously contradicted that plan, so the question is has it been jettisoned completely?

Interesting analysis. But to fairly compare the two, you probably need to consider the talent pool in the minor league system too.

tecumseh18 wrote:

Santoki wrote:If you want to keep this core together for the next 2-3 years then prepare to have one of the legitimately worst teams in baseball from 2016 and on.

The original announced plan (circa 2011) was not to plunge through an open window, but to attain a level of competitiveness and have wave after wave of prospects take over to keep the wins coming in subsequent seasons. I've been given to believe that Rogers has a long term strategy here. Sending out TDA, Syndergaard, Nicolino et al. for "win now" (*chortle*) players obviously contradicted that plan, so the question is has it been jettisoned completely?

The only way you can return to a 'build from the bottom up' scenario is to tear this thing down and trade veterans for prospects. Can't see that happening. So yes, the old plan (which many of us liked) has been thrown out the window.