The Adam Lind dilemma

Post #1 » by **YogiStewart** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 6:11 am

Simply put:
pick up his option or let him go?
this is a tough one.

Skin Blues · Post #2 » by **Skin Blues** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 7:36 am

For $5M? Sure, bring him back. Even for a platoon 1B/DH that's not bad, considering how well he hits RHP.

Post #3 » by **Nolan** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 8:31 am

Got to bring him back. 5 million is a reasonable number for what he provides.

Lateral Quicks · Post #4 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 5:15 pm

Not much of a dilemma as I see it. $7M for .850 to .900 OPS against RHP is very cheap. Even if he were to hit .800 against RHP, that's still decent.

akakalakin · Post #5 » by **akakalakin** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 5:32 pm

with his potential to hit 30-40, at his price - how can you not?

Santoki · Post #6 » by **Santoki** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 6:04 pm

Can we just finally platoon him then????

The_Hater · Post #7 » by **The_Hater** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 8:36 pm

I think they should pick up his option, replacing him with a similar bat will almost certainly cost more.

Lind was obviously great early, didn't his mid-season slump coincide with Gibbons starting him against LHP more often?

Post #8 » by **Schad** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 8:40 pm

Santoki wrote:Can we just finally platoon him then????

As it stands, 82% of his plate appearances have been against righties, and that's despite having Mark DeRosa as our best right-handed bench bat.

It's something of a no-win, really. $7m for 450-500 PAs of hot platoon action is a fairly expensive proposition given the other holes we need to fill, but having $5m to recoup Lind's production is even more challenging. Unless someone swoops in and trades for him (allowing Encarnacion to take over first base full-time), we don't have much option but to pick up his 2014 salary and hope that his August/September regression is not what we'll get going forward.

The_Hater · Post #9 » by **The_Hater** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 8:55 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:, we don't have much option but to pick up his 2014 salary and hope that his August/September regression is not what we'll get going forward.

July was his really bad month when he seemingly was getting starts against every LHP we faced, he's actually bounced back nicely since mid August.

Post #10 » by **Schad** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 9:01 pm

The_Hater wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:, we don't have much option but to pick up his 2014 salary and hope that his August/September regression is not what we'll get going forward.

July was his really bad month when he seemingly was getting starts against every LHP we faced, he's actually bounced back nicely since mid August.

OPS of .809 in August/September, and that's with the vast majority of his at-bats coming against righties. That's fairly fringy production for a 1B/DH platoon player.

The_Hater · Post #11 » by **The_Hater** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 9:10 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
The_Hater wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:, we don't have much option but to pick up his 2014 salary and hope that his August/September regression is not what we'll get going forward.

July was his really bad month when he seemingly was getting starts against every LHP we faced, he's actually bounced back nicely since mid August.

OPS of .809 in August/September, and that's with the vast majority of his at-bats coming against righties. That's fairly fringy production for a 1B/DH platoon player.

But you can live with that as a below average month if he's going to put him 900+ in other months, you just can't live with 6 weeks of near 600 OPS which is basically what he did starting July 1st.

Still putting up 880 vs RHP for the season even with those 6 terrible weeks included, that's probably about as high as even the optimists had hoped back in April.

duppyy · Post #12 » by **duppyy** » Sun Sep 8, 2013 9:38 pm

Nolan wrote:Got to bring him back. 5 million is a reasonable number for what he provides.

At the beginning of this season, people would be saying the opposite lol.

flatjacket1 · Post #13 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:13 am

I think its a no brainer to bring him up, and I wouldn't mind testing the trade market for him, seeing if another team wants him.

If we are debating taking a 12M chance on JJ or 18M for Buehrle how do you not give Lind a 7M chance? It's not a lot compared to other players.

Michael Bradley · Post #14 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:19 am

I'm not sure $7M is reasonable for a platoon 1B, especially one with Lind's history. The Jays are in a tough spot as that money can be better spent elsewhere, but replacing Lind's production against RHP will be tough internally.

I'd decline the option and try to sign him to a cheaper deal. I doubt there is a market for him, so use it to your advantage.

Mehar · Post #15 » by **Mehar** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 2:24 am

The_Hater wrote:I think they should pick up his option, replacing him with a similar bat will almost certainly cost more.

Lind was obviously great early, didn't his mid-season slump coincide with Gibbons starting him against LHP more often?

I agree with that. Well said. Lind's buyout is 2 M. I would just pick up his option for next year at 7 M. Give him one more year.

MikeM · Post #16 » by **MikeM** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 3:14 am

Ya his buyout is 2M so you're only saving 5M if you don't bring him back which will buy you approximately 1 and 2/3rds of a Maicer Izturis.

Post #17 » by **Schad** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 3:40 am

Michael Bradley wrote:I'm not sure $7M is reasonable for a platoon 1B, especially one with Lind's history. The Jays are in a tough spot as that money can be better spent elsewhere, but replacing Lind's production against RHP will be tough internally.

I'd decline the option and try to sign him to a cheaper deal. I doubt there is a market for him, so use it to your advantage.

I'd say that he's conditionally worth it. If he performs up to his 2013 numbers, and if we can get a moderately-priced platoon partner (Jeff Baker would be ideal, if for some unknown reason Texas allows him to walk), and if we take the radical step of committing to a mere seven-man bullpen, he produces enough to merit keeping.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #18 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Mon Sep 9, 2013 3:53 pm

All dependent on who's out there, but figure someone like Kendrys Morales might be a better value.

Skin Blues · Post #19 » by **Skin Blues** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:59 pm

According to Fangraphs' interpretation of value, he was worth $7M this year so far. And honestly it seems like it went about as well as possible. The previous three years combined were worth -$3.6M (yes, that's a negative sign). If he has a sub-par year in 2014 (pretty likely) then he still has a $1M buyout versus $7.5M option. So if you take that into account, it's essentially a $6M option this year. Which is pretty iffy, when guys like DeJesus (at least 1.3 WAR every season since 2005) are being passed around for free. But if there aren't any better options for a similar price then yeah... I'll stick with my initial reaction of bringing him back.

Post #20 » by **Schad** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:08 am

Skin Blues wrote:According to Fangraphs' interpretation of value, he was worth $7M this year so far. And honestly it seems like it went about as well as possible. The previous three years combined were worth -$3.6M (yes, that's a negative sign). If he has a sub-par year in 2014 (pretty likely) then he still has a $1M buyout versus $7.5M option. So if you take that into account, it's essentially a $6M option this year. Which is pretty iffy, when guys like DeJesus (at least 1.3 WAR every season since 2005) are being passed around for free. But if there aren't any better options for a similar price then yeah... I'll stick with my initial reaction of bringing him back.

The $1m in 2015 (and the $500k in 2016) is baked in anyway...we buy him out this off-season, we still have to pay it. Thus, the 2014 option is effectively $5m, with a $6.5m decision the year after. I'd lean toward picking up the former, but he'd have to be pretty damned good to even think about picking up the latter in a year's time.