RealGM

MLBTR has their arb projections up and they're always very good, so I thought it was worth taking a first look at where the Jays are for payroll. And if you think 120-130m is the ceiling, it's not pretty:

Arencibia 2.8m (scariest arb by far)
Encarnacion 9.0m
Goins 0.5m
Lawrie 0.5m
Reyes 16.0m
Cabrera 8.0m
Rasmus 6.5m (seems about right)
Bautista 14.0m
Lind 7.0m
Thole 0.5m
Goins 0.5m
DeRosa 0.75m
Gose 0.5m
Buehrle 18.0m
Dickey 12.0m
Morrow 8.0m
Happ 5.2m
Rogers 1.0m
Janssen 4.0m
Santos 3.75m
Delabar 0.5m
Wagner 0.5m
Cecil 0.9m
Loup 0.5m
Jenkins 0.5m

Total 123.9m

Not factored

Romero 7.5m
McGowan 1.5m

Worst case: 132.9m

I'm not saying that's the roster, just that as it stands now that's the assets they have at the price points they're on. JP better hope the arbitrator doesn't rule like that in his favor 'cause it'll likely mean he's out of the game. If he'll take 1-2m he's probably dumpable, but the minute he tries to play for close to 3m I don't see how anyone will touch him. I'd assume at minimum Rogers pushes Jenkins out and there's a SP slot for a newcomer, on its own even through trade that pushes 130m without Ricky and 140m with (I'll assume Ricky and Dustin will in some way be managed through insurance for the rest of this post), so we're 130m with a 7-8m type SP (based on Timmy's already 17.5m, that's a Pelfrey Correia type, nothing nice at all. I'll pretend it's B.Anderson for now).

I don't see saving 5m on Lind as particularly helpful, so I think he stays, but Melky's 1 yr might be dumpable, as Maicer's would hopefully be. If you can do more for the rotation, then Happ should go as well. If you can turn JP, Melky, Maicer, and Happ into 19.0m in cash, things get a little easier.

19-20 mil and 4 slots isn't exactly splurge money, but if any of Jimenez, Goins, Pillar, etc... take a single spot, then there starts being moves that sound realistic to be made.

I do think barring 140m+ (and that's assuming Ricky is taken care of off budget), even our conservative M.Ellis signing in the other thread is a luxury we can't afford as C and SP have to come first.

I do not begrudge the offseason AA has in front of him. It's not gonna be easy to make improvements, especially the kind of improvements that will generate fan support, unless the purse strings get another substantial tug.

I'm hoping they can save $10M+ by shopping Buerhle. The gap between him and the next-best starter is less than say JPK and a $10M/year catcher (not that one of those is necessarily available).

They're also likely going to need to spend more than that if they want a good shot at contending in 2014. And honestly, considering how much Rogers rakes in off the Jays, they should be able to do so.

The capacity to do something, though, is much different than actually doing it. That's especially the case for this particular owner.

Randle McMurphy wrote:They're also likely going to need to spend more than that if they want a good shot at contending in 2014. And honestly, considering how much Rogers rakes in off the Jays, they should be able to do so.

The capacity to do something, though, is much different than actually doing it. That's especially the case for this particular owner.

I absolutely agree with you. I am just hoping that Rogers does not decide to slash the payroll for 2014. It will not hurt Rogers to spend in the 140 M range next year given the support the fans showed this year on a club that failed to live up to any of its fans expectations.

Even if we have, say, $140-$150m, we may need to ditch some salary if we're to make meaningful improvements. I don't think that Ricky will be going anywhere, which means that we're looking at $130m+ committed as a baseline. If we can dump the likes of Happ or Melky, we ought to, and if we can find a decent catcher, JP should be non-tendered.

Schadenfreude wrote:Even if we have, say, $140-$150m, we may need to ditch some salary if we're to make meaningful improvements. I don't think that Ricky will be going anywhere, which means that we're looking at $130m+ committed as a baseline. If we can dump the likes of Happ or Melky, we ought to, and if we can find a decent catcher, JP should be non-tendered.

That is the first thing I would do. Get rid of any player that is replaceable. Melky, Izturis, and Happ are a good starting point (although it is debatable whether Happ is replaceable since with Morrow injured he is probably the 3rd best starter on the team right now). Even if Rogers increases payroll to the $150M range, that doesn't leave much to work with if AA intends to bring back the same group next season. There will have to be moves.

Not only is 2014 cloudy, but 2015 is as well, and it gets even more dicey when factoring in the issue of extending Rasmus, which I'm guessing AA will try to do this winter. I'm iffy on Rasmus long-term, and would probably consider moving him if the Jays had anything worthwhile behind him, but he is the best CF the Jays have for the forseeable future. If he gets extended, then you have to factor another $10+ million onto 2015's payroll,which as it stands right now is about $112M for 12 players (assuming all team options are picked up).

AA is going to have to really get creative in shedding some salary, not only for 2014, but 2015-16 as well.

Dec 11th Update:

Navarro 3
Encarnacion 9
Goins 0.5
Reyes 16
Lawrie 0.5
Cabrera 8
Rasmus 6.5
Bautista 14
Lind 7

Kratz 0.5
Izturis 3
Kawasaki 0.5
Gose 0.5

Dickey 12
Buehrle 18
Morrow 8
Happ 5.2
Rogers 1

Janssen 4
Santos 3.75
Cecil 0.9
Delabar 0.5
Loup 0.5
McGowan 1.5
Romero 7.75

Total 132.1

I'm throwing Dustin and Ricky on the roster as the long-men for their salaries. Not a lot changed except the C's and DeRosa retiring, but I was goofing with it so I thought I'd update. I will say, the Jays are actually in incredibly good shape for the long run. Buehrle is basically our huge money sink, but he's only 2 years remaining (personally I think we should see last year's payroll as closer to 130 with 4m taken off each year of Buehrle from the MIA cash, but since I can't back that up with evidence, I leave it straight up) and Reyes makes bank, but I promise if you wanted to move his deal now you wouldn't have any problems at all.

I'm sure Happ will be traded this off-season. It's interesting his name never gets brought up when the rotation is mentioned. That Gibby interview was very telling in that he listed Redmond, Hutch, Drabek etc. but never mentioned Happ who should seemingly be a lock for the rotation over any of those guys at this point.

Graham's Cracker wrote:I'm sure Happ will be traded this off-season. It's interesting his name never gets brought up when the rotation is mentioned. That Gibby interview was very telling in that he listed Redmond, Hutch, Drabek etc. but never mentioned Happ who should seemingly be a lock for the rotation over any of those guys at this point.

I think that's likely, but there are dominoes, or at least one domino, that has to fall. First, I think, is trading for the 4th (hopefully not a 4th at all, but I'm assuming the current top 3 are staying).

Second, is having someone on the FA SP market fall through the cracks of the 15m+ AAV group who will have to take less 10-12 for a year or two less (the Lohse, EJax types).

If the first happens, then I can see, in advance of a budget FA signing, Happ going out to a team looking for a back-end, but unwilling to go 8 figures for one. IMO, if AA can get the first piece down, the Happ trade starts looking more likely, although it's certainly possible Happ goes in that trade as the filler that keeps the giving team from having to fill the spot themselves.

All that I mean is that priority #1 is getting one more SP into the fold. If the second SP still looks possible by the time that happens, then Happ either goes in the first deal, on his own, or in a second deal, but he's gotta line up the addition to the rotation first. If it takes a long time to get the first deal down and the market has been picked clean, then I'd hazard the guess that Happ gets stuck here, but I doubt that's part of plan A, B, C, or D.

Happ is making 5.2?!?!?!

CapeCrusader wrote:Happ is making 5.2?!?!?!

That's a steal. Have a look at some of the FA deals being signed.

torontoaces04 wrote:

CapeCrusader wrote:Happ is making 5.2?!?!?!

That's a steal. Have a look at some of the FA deals being signed.

I get everyone is being overpaid in the market, but that still a little pricey for Happ. I thought at best he was making half that.

CapeCrusader wrote:

torontoaces04 wrote:

CapeCrusader wrote:Happ is making 5.2?!?!?!

That's a steal. Have a look at some of the FA deals being signed.

I get everyone is being overpaid in the market, but that still a little pricey for Happ. I thought at best he was making half that.

Team option at $6.7M for next season too