R.A. Dickey Effect 2013
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:00 am
Much was made of the R.A. Dickey effect early in the season, but we didn't really rehash it much after Morrow went down.
Christopher Carruthers @ Fangraphs took a look at the R.A. Dickey effect on the 2013 season as a whole. There are a lot of equations and stats in the piece which are worth the read. In summary though...
Really a shame that we couldn't get a campaign out of Morrow where he is healthy and harnesses all of his tools.
By the way, Carruthers has his own site with more Blue Jays analysis which I recommend checking out http://www.breakingblue.ca
Christopher Carruthers @ Fangraphs took a look at the R.A. Dickey effect on the 2013 season as a whole. There are a lot of equations and stats in the piece which are worth the read. In summary though...
Combining the un-regressed results, by having pitchers pitch after him, Dickey would contribute around 1.4 WAR over a full season. If you assume the effect is just 10% reduction in FIP for both groups, this number comes down to around 0.9 WAR, which is not crazy to think at all based off the results. I can say with great confidence, that if Dickey pitches over 200 innings again next year, he will contribute above 1.0 WAR just from baffling hitters for the next guys. If we take the un-regressed 1.4 WAR and add it to his 2013 WAR (2.0) we get 3.4 WAR, if we add in his defence (7 DRS), we get 4.1 WAR. Even though we all were disappointed with Dickey’s season, with the effect he provides and his defence, he is still all-star calibre.
Just for fun, lets apply this to his 2012. He had 4.5 WAR in 2012, add on the 1.4 and his 6 DRS we get 6.5 WAR, wow! Using his RA9 WAR (6.2) instead (commonly used for knucklers instead of fWAR) we get 7.6 WAR! That’s Miguel Cabrera value! We can’t include his DRS when using RA9 WAR though, as it should already be incorporated.
You may be disappointed with Dickey’s 2013, but he is still well worth his money. He is projected for 2.8 WAR next year by Steamer, and adding on the 1.4 WAR Dickey Effect and his defence, he could be projected to really have a true underlying value of almost 5 WAR. That is well worth the $12.5M he will earn in 2014.
Really a shame that we couldn't get a campaign out of Morrow where he is healthy and harnesses all of his tools.
By the way, Carruthers has his own site with more Blue Jays analysis which I recommend checking out http://www.breakingblue.ca